The situation in the super election year 2021: will the SPD get the triple?

What is possible

This is our final super election year location before reckoning.

Don't worry, we will also guide you through the government formation phase in this format.

But today is the opportunity

to analyze

the

starting position for election day

again.

A look back: a little more than six months ago, in March, this newsletter was published for the first time.

"Why anything is possible in this federal election"

was the title, and in retrospect I have to attest to my colleague Sebastian Fischer's visionary qualities.

At that time, the power struggle for the candidacy for chancellor in the Union had not yet reached its climax, in the polls the CDU and CSU were in the 30s range (tendency falling), the soaring of the Greens (also without a decided K-question) was only imminent , and the SPD was laughed at wearily: a Chancellor Olaf Scholz?

With 15 percent?

But yes, anything is possible, as the past few weeks have shown.

Today it looks like the Social Democrats could get the triple on Sunday.

Victory in the federal elections, in the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, in the parliamentary elections in Berlin.

What kind of resurrection would that be?

A large, corona-compliant party is being prepared in the Willy-Brandt-Haus, the street in front of the party headquarters is to be cordoned off and tents are to be erected.

More than a thousand guests are expected.

Meanwhile, Armin Laschet and the Union are looking into the abyss.

The Greens can hope for substantial gains compared to 2017 (election result at the time: 8.9 percent), but in the end they must feel like losers - failed because of their own claims.

Does that mean the race is over?

I do not think so.

Polls are known to be no predictions of the outcome of an election, and the wildly polling drive of this campaign has shown how quickly sentiment can change.

Now the great Laschet enlightenment in the country is no longer to be expected, and the outgoing Chancellor will not change anything, who is still drumming for her would-be successor in the final spurt.

But at least: The CDU leader and the Union parties seem to have bottomed out.

But whether the gentle updraft is enough to overtake the SPD again in the last few meters?

It is not impossible, the distance is manageable.

The Union is doing everything in its power to mobilize at least its regular electorate in the remaining four days.

And who knows, the fear of defeat and a red-green-red government could ultimately force even frustrated supporters of the CDU and CSU to cross with the Union.

The top of the SME and Economic Union, namely Carsten Linnemann and Friedrich Merz, warned their 25,000 members yesterday in an election call against giving their vote to the desired partner FDP out of disappointment.

"Only with the Union as the strongest force does Armin Laschet have a clear mandate to lead the next government," the email says.

This sentence can also be understood as a rejection of all those (including your own candidate for Chancellor) who sense the chance of a Union-led Jamaica government, even if you end up behind the SPD on Sunday.

The CSU top had already referred such mind games to the realm of dreams.

In the remaining days and hours, the candidates and their troops will be on the road once more across the country.

On Thursday evening, the top candidates from all Bundestag parties will meet on television in the »final round«.

The final rallies are scheduled for Friday and Saturday.

At SPIEGEL.de you can find out everything you need to know about voting.

And on Sunday you can watch the election evening live here.

That much is certain, it will be more exciting than it has been in a long time.

What's new in Republic 21?

Election day is getting closer - high time to clarify the last important questions about voting in our SPIEGEL project Republic 21.

For example, what does someone mean when they say they would choose "tactically" in this election?

Can I still apply for postal voting on Sunday if I am in quarantine?

In the Live Q&A on Instagram, the SPIEGEL editors Katharina Hölter and Valerie Höhne will explain what you still want to know about the election on Thursday from 11 a.m.

THE MIRROR

In the vote-catching podcast, my colleague Marius Mestermann and Melanie Amann, member of the SPIEGEL editor-in-chief and head of the capital's office, take stock of the past weeks:

How bad and dirty was the election campaign really?

Which topics did the parties score with - and which ones went completely under?

You will hear the answers here from Thursday morning.

What the polls say

As an

exception, the

SPIEGEL Sunday question

is on Thursday this week.

Three days before the election, it provides another picture of the mood - mind you, only a snapshot then.

Today, together with the opinion research institute Civey, we take a last look at the personal values ​​of the candidates and at the possible coalitions

.

In the direct election question, Olaf Scholz is still clearly ahead.

Well, that's not entirely correct.

Most people still answer: "Don't know" or "None of the above" - ​​which doesn't exactly speak for the field of applicants.

Armin Laschet has now moved behind Scholz, but he continues to keep a safe distance.

Annalena Baerbock is just behind the Union competitor.

The question of which coalition voters would prefer after the election is not so easy to answer.

Be it red-green-red, the traffic light, Jamaica or the German coalition - the reservations are great.

The aversion to the grand coalition is even greater: basically nobody wants it anymore.

However, it is worth taking a closer look at how the preferences are distributed among the supporters of the various parties.

And lo and behold:

among the friends of the SPD, a left alliance and a traffic light are equally well received.

The Greens sympathizers are a little more positive about a coalition with the SPD and the Left than a cooperation with the SPD and FDP.

A Jamaican coalition with the Union and FDP, on the other hand, hardly triggers any pleasant feelings.

The Liberals, on the other hand, would naturally prefer Jamaica with the Union to a traffic light with the SPD.

FDP supporters would even prefer a German coalition with the Union and the SPD - and without the Greens.

As diverse as the opinions are here, the actual formation of a government after the election is likely to be just as complicated.

It is quite possible that Angela Merkel will stay with us as Chancellor for a long time.

The constituencies of the week: # 55 and # 201

We have gone through all of the constituencies that we have presented to you at this point.

Lo and behold: it was a nice trip through most of the federal states.

Two, however - no bad intentions, I promise - have not occurred so far: Bremen and Rhineland-Palatinate.

It can't stay that way, so today you get two constituencies for the price of one.

So Bremen:

constituency 55

has a strange shape. It encompasses half of the city of

Bremen

and the

Bremerhaven

exclave located around 60 kilometers to the north

. The SPD has always won here since time immemorial, this time the dock worker Uwe Schmidt, 55, wants to defend his direct mandate.

In 2017, Schmidt was eleven percentage points ahead of CDU competitor Bettina Hornhues in the first votes. Now a young Christian Democrat wants to make the race more exciting - despite the lousy

national trend

:

Wiebke Winter

, 25, climate activist, prominent member of Armin Laschet's future team (here you can find a portrait of the candidate). "She runs her own campaign that you could almost say, I think she would like to become Chancellor," said Green competitor Michael Labetzke during the election campaign. Does it help?

Change of location to

constituency 201, Kreuznach

, Rhineland-Palatinate:

Julia Klöckner

, 49, is currently Agriculture Minister in Angela Merkel's cabinet, but does not have a mandate in the Bundestag. That should change so that the career in Berlin may not end after the election. The hoped-for walk will be for Klöckner, who had already won the constituency in 2005 and 2009, but not: Current constituency forecasts give her

SPD competitor Joe Weingarten

, 59, a good chance of beating the Federal Minister.

The irony of history: Many in the SPD are not particularly keen on seeing Weingarten continue to be part of the parliamentary group.

Weingarten only moved up to the parliament for Andrea Nahles in 2019, even then he was highly controversial because he had previously divided refugees into three groups: »asylum seekers«, »job seekers« - and »rabble«.

He also advocated talking more to those

"Who are right of center and no longer feel at home in the general left-wing liberal mainstream."

In spite of this, it was set up again in the constituency, partly because a rival candidate withdrew at short notice.

However, the comrades banished him to the very end of the state list - which is why he absolutely has to win the direct mandate.

Julia Klöckner, on the other hand, is covered in the event of a defeat.

It is number one on the CDU list.

The social media moment of the week

Do you know Oldenfelde?

If you've been on Twitter in the past few days, then the hashtag #Oldenfelde became a hit this week.

The Hamburg SPD member of parliament Ole Thorben Buschhüter was to blame, or - as Buschhüter himself puts it - a »flaw in the system«.

Buschhüter, 45, wanted to

invite you

to the

SPD district assembly in Oldenfelde

, a district of the Hamburg district of Rahlstedt

, on Monday

.

However, the social democrat got the wrong mailing list, his mail was not only sent to the 135 Oldenfeld comrades, but to around 400,000 SPD members across the country.

The story of the stray quickly made the rounds on Twitter.

Feels like the entire German social democracy, if not the whole republic, now seemed to want to make its way to Oldenfelde, at least virtually.

Bushguard also took part and suggested a change of conference venue.

In fact, the SPD man hopes that the hype will be over by the day of the meeting on Tuesday next week: »We are normally around 20 to 25 people at the district meeting.

We have room for a few new faces, but not more. "

The stories of the week

I would particularly like to recommend these politically relevant stories from our capital city office to you:

• Joint appearance: How Merkel fights for Laschet in the rain

• Laschet and the Union: Why nuclear power is back in the election campaign

• Climate instead of Chancellor: Why the Greens are changing course shortly before the election

Heartfelt,

Your Philipp Wittrock

And once again the note on our own behalf: You can order this briefing as a newsletter in your e-mail inbox here.