Material shortages and the corona crisis are slowing down the actually booming German industry.
The strong upswing is expected to follow in 2022 - but not for all industries.
Kiel / Berlin - The hoped-for economic upswing is still a long way off. Above all, the persistent lack of material in the industry is responsible. According to leading economists, the ongoing precautionary measures in the corona pandemic * are also responsible for the slow economic growth. In the coming year, Europe's largest economy is expected to gain even more momentum. According to a study, individual industries benefit from the upswing very differently.
Stefan Kooths, economic director of the Institute for World Economy (IfW), predicts an “intact catching up process”. But this will get “a dent over the winter half-year”, said Kooths on Thursday when presenting the current IfW forecast. Like other economic research institutes, the IfW cut its forecast for the current year. In the opinion of the researchers, existing precautionary measures to protect against infection and supply bottlenecks in industry are still dampening development. Due to a shortage of materials, for example in the case of semiconductors, the industry can currently only process its well-filled order books to a limited extent and has to take the brakes on production. Delivery delays can result. At the moment, it is the German carmakers in particular who are feeling the effects of this.
IfW: Pre-crisis level will not be reached until the beginning of 2022 - six months later than expected
With the initially weaker recovery, the German economy is unlikely to reach its pre-crisis level until the first quarter of 2022, according to the IfW, and thus six months later than initially expected.
The Kiel-based company is anticipating an increase in gross domestic product of 2.6 percent this year; previously they had assumed an increase of 3.9 percent.
In the coming year, economic output is expected to grow strongly by 5.1 percent.
“Plenty of purchasing power among consumers and bulging order books in companies - this is what a self-sustaining upswing looks like,” said Kooths, describing the prospects.
Last year, the corona crisis plunged the German economy into the deepest recession since the 2009 financial crisis.
The gross domestic product collapsed by 4.9 percent.
Economy: Not all industries will benefit from the economic upturn
According to the research and consulting company Prognos, not all industries will benefit to the same extent from the upswing. The experts are predicting growth in economic output of 5.4 percent for the industry this year, and in the service sector as a whole they are expecting a lower increase of 3.0 percent. Numerous domestic market-oriented service providers were weakened again by the restrictions to combat the third wave of pandemics last winter. The lockdown had hit the hospitality industry and parts of the retail sector, among others.
According to Prognos, the growth winners in the industry this year after the slump in 2020 will be primarily vehicle construction (plus 9.5 percent) and mechanical engineering (plus 7.1 percent), which will benefit from the upturn in the global economy.
The experts also believe that the metal industry, electrical engineering and the rubber and plastics sectors will see an above-average recovery.
The service sector will be the winner of the economic boom
On the other hand, areas that are primarily concerned with fossil fuels such as mining, coking plants and mineral oil processing are likely to shrink or almost stagnate.
“These examples show that even a strong upswing cannot stop structural change,” the study says.
According to Prognos, the growth winners in the service sector will be pubs, restaurants, hotels and other accommodation providers.
After the historic slump in the Corona crisis year, economic output in the hospitality industry is likely to increase by around 20 percent in 2021.
In the coming year, the experts believe an increase of 29 percent is possible.
Economy: The economists agree - economic upswing has only been postponed
Numerous economic research institutes, but also bank economists, had lowered their economic forecasts for the current year and raised them for 2022 in the past few days.
"The strong recovery after Corona, which was originally expected for the summer, continues to be postponed," Ifo economic director Timo Wollmershäuser also described the development.
Economists expect good news from the labor market.
They assume that the number of unemployed will fall and short-time work will continue to be cut.
(dpa) * Merkur.de is part of IPPEN-MEDIA