Argentina, between turbulence and over-performance, more of the same

Argentine President Alberto Fernández Bebeto Matthews / AP

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Argentina is a country used to turbulence, tango passion. But two decades after the 2001 crisis, with several countries in the region experiencing deep-seated institutional crises, the country seemed like an oasis in which, despite the economic malaise, institutional politics continued to march on its rails. Did anything change after the simultaneous and compulsory open primary elections (PASO) on September 12? The PASO are unique in the world. They seek to expand the offer for the electorate without multiplying the parties. They do so by accommodating the different factions present in a political formation that, in a compulsory intern, measure forces and then organize their lists. Together for Change (JxC, ex Cambiemos, alliance between PRO,of former president Mauricio Macri and the historic Radical Civic Union) and the Frente de Todos (FdT) concentrated in this election 70% of the intention to vote, with 67% participation. Being simultaneous, the PASOs also function as a very reliable pre-election survey two months after the election.

choice.

And it happened that the government took a good hit.

JxC received 10 points more than the ruling party and received more votes in 15 of the 24 electoral districts (23 provinces and the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, CABA).

The FdT won in seven, and in another two the favorites were provincial parties.

Not only is the number of provinces, JxC got more votes in the main economic and urban centers of the country, displaced the FdT in the province of Buenos Aires (38% compared to 34% of FdT) and won in CABA (48% of the votes against 25% of the Government party and 13% of the emerging libertarian far right).

For the opposition, it is a triumph that also changes the balance: the mayor of the city of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, is running for president for 2023. He has a long way to go.

The government crisis was capital, but four keys invite to de-dramatize the twenty paragraphs of the vice president's letter that had the country in suspense in recent days, after five ministers and two senior officials aligned with Kirchnerism presented their resignation. The first is systemic. There is nothing new in this defeat. You could see it coming because of the bad economic data and because it has been the trend since 1983: there were 10 midterm elections, 5 times the Government won and 5 times the opposition. It is called alternation and electoral channeling of disenchantment. Second, there is also no news in the tensions that the

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coalition is

of government. Although united Peronism is considered invincible, the truth is that it is not. What is surprising is that they are surprised. Third, its crisis does not drag the country down, neither the provincial governors nor the unions will choose to destabilize (as they have shown in recent days, supporting the president). Fourth, although they want to, they have no incentive to break, they need each other, the blood will not reach the river. The letter from the vice president redoubled an arm wrestling, but ended with a lukewarm victory for the president, some unknown and several defeats. Kirchnerism attributes the simulation of defeat to the president, but they also lost in their electoral strongholds.The remodeling announced by Alberto Fernández does not leave him worse off than the PASO themselves because his Minister of Economy is still there and Santiago Cafiero left through one door and entered through the other. In the rest, feminism and the federal cause lose: the representation of women and provincial leaders not from Boanerenses on the minimum.

The Argentina that was, the Argentina that came

October will mark the 21st anniversary of the crisis of the Government of the Alliance, the coalition that led Fernando de la Rúa (Unión Cívica Radical) and Carlos Chacho Álvarez (Frepaso) to the presidency.

Álvarez resigned after the scandal over bribes paid to opposition senators to pass labor law reforms.

The Alliance did not break up, but that was the prelude to the outbreak of 2001. That earthquake caused damage and activated one of the many curses of Argentine politics: no non-Peronist government has been able to complete its mandate since Marcelo T. de Alvear did it. October 12, 1928, not even among the military since Justo, in 1938. In 2019, Macri broke the spell.

The vice president is the only office in the government that the president cannot remove and the only one that can have an interest in the government doing badly. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner knows this well, who during her first presidency (2007-2011) experienced a profound institutional crisis when one of the central legislative proposals for her Government was defeated in Parliament with the vote of her vice president, Julio Cobos, of the UCR. They stopped talking, but ended the mandate. This time the crisis occurs within the same political space. There are no incentives to break up and no one seems willing to leave the court. The fight of the past days is interpreted by the famous saying of General Perón: "The Peronists are like cats, they seem to fight but they are reproducing." The intention will be that,but the most probable thing is that in November the badly rehearsed defeat will become effective. Politics will remain on its rails for a while longer, it will be time for the economy to find its way.

Yanina Welp

is a researcher at the Albert Hirschman Center on Democracy, Graduate Institute, Geneva (Switzerland) and editorial coordinator for Agenda Pública.