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New federal election survey: Laschet is catching up properly - but the expert names a great Scholz advantage


In a few days the general election is: Shortly before going to the ballot box, the Union can shorten the gap to the SPD in a recent poll.

In a few days the general election is: Shortly before going to the ballot box, the Union can shorten the gap to the SPD in a recent poll.

Berlin - Armin Laschet was combative on Monday, six days before the federal election.

The Union's candidate for chancellor said in the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus: “I am firmly convinced that the Union will win this election.” The Bundestag election will be “decided on election day” and not in polls.

Laschet and the CDU / CSU had last seen them behind the SPD.

According to a new opinion poll, this is still the case, but: The Union can significantly shorten the gap.

(Scholz or Laschet? You can get the latest forecasts and first results in our politics newsletter.)

Bundestag election poll: backlog almost halved - Union catches up with SPD

In the Insa opinion trend on behalf of the

Bild newspaper

, the Union lands in second place with 22 percent.

Compared to the last Insa survey, this means an increase of 1.5 percent.

The SPD, on the other hand, has to lose one percentage point, but still ranks at the top with 25 percent.

Now the results coincide with the surveys of other opinion research institutes, which both old parties had seen in the range of 21-22 percent and 25-26 percent respectively.

But if you only look at the Insa surveys, the current results are a success for Armin Laschet.

The fact that the Union has almost halved the gap to the SPD within a week should be celebrated in the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus.

Insa boss Hermann Binkert analyzes the results as follows: “The gap between the two major parties is melting.

Both Armin Laschet and Olaf Scholz can become chancellors. ”But:“ Scholz has more options, ”said Binkert, referring to the possible coalitions.

Federal election survey: Greens in 3rd place - FDP and AfD lose easily

Behind the CDU / CSU, the Greens follow with an unchanged 15 percent.

In view of the 8.9 percent in the last general election, this can certainly be seen as a success.

In view of the far better survey results in the past, it was also a defeat.

The Greens are followed by the FDP (12 percent / -0.5) and AfD (11 percent / -0.5).

Both parties have been in the polls for weeks between 10 and 13 percent.

According to Insa, the Left Party comes to 6.5 percent (± 0), the other parties together reach 8.5 percent (+0.5).

Note on the survey

For the Insa opinion trend on behalf of Bild, a total of 2054 citizens were surveyed from September 17 to 20, 2021.

The maximum statistical error tolerance is +/- 2.5 percentage points.

Bundestag election: According to the survey, the following coalitions are possible

In the meantime, the current survey does not bring much movement into the possible government alliances after the election.

Under the leadership of the SPD, both a traffic light coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) and a red-green-red alliance (SPD, Greens, Left) would be possible.

Mathematically possible, but unlikely, are a Germany alliance (SPD, Union, FDP) or a Kenya coalition (SPD, Union, Greens) with social democratic leadership and a continuation of the grand coalition with the Union. The SPD had not categorically excluded a GroKo recently, but expressed its skepticism in this regard. “I don't want to hide the fact that I would like to form a government with the Greens,” said Scholz in the last TV triall and, with a view to the CDU / CSU, added: “I believe that most of the voters agree wish that the Union is in the opposition. "

According to current surveys, under the leadership of the CDU, only a Jamaica coalition (Union, Greens, FDP) comes into question.

The Free Democrats campaigned intensively for Jamaica in the person of party leader Christian Lindner, but the Greens see themselves as being much closer to the SPD in terms of content.

"The Union stands for yesterday's politics," said Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock in the Triell.

You belong in the opposition.

But that will be decided by the voters on Sunday.


List of rubric lists: © Willi Weber / Prosieben / dpa

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2021-09-23

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