Brazil fights a battle for a third way between Lula and Bolsonaro one year before the elections

Just over 10 days ago, a demonstration in the streets measured the temperature of a possible third way for the 2022 elections in Brazil. With the initial slogan of N

i Lula ni Bolsonaro

, changed at the last minute to

Out with Bolsonaro

, the call on September 12 did not go beyond a desolate protest. It was a joy for the followers of the former Brazilian president (of the Workers' Party), who leads the electoral polls, and for the Bolsonaristas, who occupy second place in voting intention one year behind the general elections. The latest survey from the Datafolha institute shows that Lula leads in all scenarios, and has a sure victory in a second round against Bolsonaro, 56% to 31%.

But apart from the clash in social networks between Lulistas and Bolsonaristas regarding the result of the act of the 12th, Brazilians are more attentive to looking for alternatives than it seems.

A poll carried out by Political Atlas shows that, at this moment, there are 28% of voters who expect a new candidacy apart from the two names that lead the preferences.

In July, they were 23%.

"There was a small fall for both Lula and Bolsonaro, more of the latter," says Andrei Roman, director of Atlas Politico, which conducts political polls in several countries.

In addition,

Datafolha

shows that 38% of Brazilians still do not know who their candidate is, leaving a great entry point for new names.

More information

• Bolsonaro and Lula measure their forces in the streets of Brazil

• 'A new Lula to remake a country in rubble?', By Juan Arias

One year after the elections and after almost three years of ultra-right government, there has never been such a rush to position itself as in other times.

There are 11 acronyms working to build a competitive third way in Brazil.

The president of the Citizenship party, former deputy Roberto Freire, affirms that the electoral campaign has advanced as never before.

"We have never had to discuss names so far in advance," he says.

His party is one of those participating in the negotiations for a third way, which has as a possible presidential candidate the senator of Sergipe Alessandro Vieira.

Vieira was on Avenida Paulista, in São Paulo, where a large rally was held on September 1. Such as the leader of the PDT (Democratic Labor Party), Ciro Gomes, Senator Simone Tebet, of the MDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement), the governor of São Paulo, João Doria, of the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party), and the former Minister of Health of Bolsonaro, Luiz Henrique Mandetta of DEM (Democrats). It was the first time they took to the streets together. Until now, the articulations have been on account of the weekly meetings between the leaders of the parties and the innumerable online debates in search of convergences. The first consensus of the group is the dismissal of President Bolsonaro, especially after the coup bravado of the president before his public in the acts of September 7.

However, it remains to be seen who could be the catalyst that attracts the most votes in the 2022 elections, to articulate alliances around his name. The country is currently experiencing the probe balloon phase, in which several politicians test their acceptance with potential voters, to work on the articulations around the most prestigious candidate. “The main issue is the lack of a name. There are no leaders in this group, ”says political scientist Carolina Botelho, a researcher at the Mackenzie University Neuroscience Laboratory and the Electoral Studies Laboratory at the IESP and UERJ universities. However, Roberto Freire, from Citizenship, is optimistic about a competitive candidacy for 2022. “We are still in the early stages of an articulation against the president.It's the agitation and propaganda control phase, ”said Freire.

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Since they began to talk about an alternative route to Lula and Bolsonaro, three names have been left on the road: that of the well-known presenter Luciano Huck, who decided to sign a new contract with the powerful Red Globo, that of former judge and former Minister of Justice Sergio Moro, who withdrew from the debate, and former Novo (Nuevo) leader João Amoêdo, who resigned after his party's deputies insisted on supporting the government.

If the dialogues progress, it is likely that others will be on the road.

So far, one of the most valued names and that is already contrasted in the polls is that of Ciro Gomes (PDT), who in the 2018 elections was in third position. In addition, it currently ranks third in polls as well, with up to 12%, depending on the scenario. But the leaders of the other acronyms heard by EL PAÍS affirm that Gomes would not receive their support in a supposed broad front and would not represent that escape route to the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro.

Gomes, former governor of the state of Ceará, would identify with the same electorate as Lula and the assessment is that, over the course of the campaign, he may lose support. “Ciro has lost himself in a character that he doesn't even believe in. He had vigor, he was a candidate of the left, now he does not identify with one side or the other. It does not convince even the center-right parties and it seems to be losing the support of a part of the left, ”says researcher Carolina Botelho.

Other possible candidates, who already appear in opinion polls, are PSDB governors João Doria Jr (São Paulo) and Eduardo Leite (Rio Grande do Sul). The dispute between the two names of this party is something that should be resolved in the party's primaries scheduled for the end of November. However, the rejection of Doria puts him at a disadvantage. According to

Datafolha

, the paulista is the third most rejected, with 37%, behind Bolsonaro (59%) and Lula (38%). Leite, on the other hand, benefits from the fact that it is still little known and has a much lower rejection rate, 18%.

The goal of the party is, once the candidacy is defined, to reach 15% in the polls as soon as possible. In the scenarios tested so far, none of the third-way names exceed 5% support. “If we reach 15% we will come to be seen as a good option to polarization and we will quickly reach around 25% of the votes, which should place us in the second round. The difficult thing is to reach 15%, ”says Marcus Pestana, former deputy and president of the Board of Trustees of the Teotônio Vilela Institute, a PSDB foundation that promotes political debates and prepares electoral strategies.

The PSDB, however, is divided between opposition to Bolsonaro and support for the government's agendas. How to be third way if this group is still aligned with the current president? “Former President Tancredo Neves used to say that, as the elections approach, the future power has more force than the present power. In other words, when expectations of power are created, opportunists let go of the bone and reposition themselves, ”adds the former PSDB deputy. Other parties live the same dilemma, such as the DEM, which intends to launch the name of Luiz Henrique Mandetta (DEM), Bolsonaro's Prime Minister of Health, fired when the president insisted on chloroquine. The party has two ministries in the Government.

The MDB, meanwhile, is divided between the new, with the name of Simone Tebet, who has stood out in the Parliamentary Investigation Commission (CPI) of the Pandemic, and the old, with the return to the political board of the figure of the former president Michel Temer. It was Temer who played the role of the interlocutor of Bolsonaro's temporary ceasefire with the Judiciary after September 7. Temer was Dilma Rousseff's vice president between 2011 and 2016. He assumed the presidency after Rousseff's impeachment and was therefore seen as a traitor by the left. Today, however, he tries to sell the image of a peacemaker, after helping Bolsonaro dismantle the time bomb that he himself created with the coup demonstrations on September 7.All are essays and speculations of a painting in which Lula still reigns only as the possible name to defeat Bolsonaro.

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