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Stockbroker looks to Berlin: In
2017, the DAX reacted on the Monday after the general election with slight gains
Photo: Frank Rumpenhorst / dpa
Major political events are usually also an issue on the stock exchange - this also applies to elections such as the one for the German Bundestag next Sunday. Politics dictates the framework in which the economy operates - ultimately, the company's sales and profits also depend on it. This year, the ballot box promises to be particularly exciting, because surveys have not yet revealed a clear picture: a future conservatively led government appears just as possible as one with a social democratic or even green head of government.
It is generally known that the economy generally tends to favor the CDU / CSU and, above all, the FDP.
The analysis of the party donations during the election campaign once again underlines this thesis.
In the meantime, however, some business leaders have revealed themselves to be deviating from this rule, such as recently the Regensburg real estate entrepreneur
Sebastian Schels
, who drew attention to himself with a large donation to the Greens.
But how do elections actually affect the stock market?
Have you seen any recognizable patterns or price developments in the past that investors might be able to rely on?
Dekabank has taken a close look at the development of the stock exchange in the context of past federal elections. The analysts of the bank wanted to determine whether share prices possibly trend significantly in one direction before or after elections, whether elections cause particular fluctuations on the stock market and - crucial question - whether one or the other party, if it is in government, is a particularly negative one or has a positive effect on the stock market.
The result of the investigation is not spectacular, but it is remarkable: there are evidently recurring movements on the stock exchange, both in the run-up to and after the federal elections.
Disappointing for investors, however, it must be added immediately that this knowledge is hardly suitable for making investment decisions based on it.
Dekabank also writes this in its analysis.
Here are the results of the bank in brief:
The
German stock market tends to weaken in the 100 days before a federal election
.
In the 100 days after such an election, on the other hand, the market catches up on average, but not completely.
In addition, these gains after the election do not necessarily seem to be based on national reasons - in an international comparison, the Dax hardly outperformed in questionable periods.
In
the past, prices rose
particularly sharply
after elections, when this resulted in a change of government
.
Because this has not been the case all too often, Dekabank does not consider this result of the analysis to be very robust.
After election dates, there
are significantly higher price fluctuations on the stock exchange
than before, and the shorter after the election, the stronger.
Perhaps the most remarkable finding from the analysis: The party that is particularly good for the stock market when it comes to government responsibilities does not exist.
"If you look into the past,
no ruling party can boast that it systematically exerts a better influence on the stock markets,
" writes the Dekabank in its analysis.
There are marginal differences in the performance of the stock exchange between different governments.
"The crude comparison of reigns and stock market developments does not go far enough to allow conclusions to be drawn from it," writes Dekabank, however.
That probably means: investors can vote carefree next Sunday and make their cross freely according to their political convictions.
They do not need to associate any particular hopes for returns with this.
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