German citizens will elect a new parliament on September 26, 2021.
According to the forecasts for the federal election 2021, which coalitions are currently possible?
Berlin - In the federal election in 2021, the Germans will elect a new Bundestag and a new Chancellor.
Angela Merkel did not allow herself to be re-elected after 16 years in office.
With our politics newsletter you will always be kept informed about national and international political events.
Federal election 2021: the parties at a glance
To enter the 20th German Bundestag, the parties must receive at least five percent of the vote.
The following so-called established parties stand for election:
CDU / CSU
SPD
FDP
The left
ALLIANCE 90 / THE GREENS (The Greens)
AfD
Free voters
Parties that have not been represented by at least five members in the Bundestag since the last federal election are considered to be non-established parties (small parties).
The Federal Returning Officer announced the full list of participating parties on July 9, 2021.
Federal election 2021: who are the Chancellor candidates and top candidates?
Internal discussions about the top and chancellor candidate took place in the Union in April 2021.
Both CSU chairman Markus Söder and CDU leader Armin Laschet declared themselves ready to run for chancellor.
On April 20, the CDU federal board voted with 77.5 percent of the votes for its chairman Laschet.
Söder then withdrew his candidacy.
For the SPD, Olaf Scholz runs as a candidate for chancellor.
The finance minister was confirmed as candidate for chancellor by his party on May 9, 2021.
For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, the Greens are nominating a candidate for Chancellor.
The party nominated Annalena Baerbock for this position in mid-April 2021.
For the FDP, party leader Christian Lindner runs as the top candidate.
He was nominated on May 14, the final decision is still pending in early June 2021.
The AfD is going into the federal election in 2021 with a dual leadership, consisting of party leader Tino Chrupalla and parliamentary group leader Alice Weidel. This was announced by the party on May 25, 2021.
The left also competes with a duo tip.
The national board of the party nominated Janine Wissler and Dietmar Bartsch.
Federal election 2021: predictions for election victory
The so-called Sunday question - "If there was a general election next Sunday, which of the following parties would you vote for?" - has become the standard tool for determining election prognoses.
The forecasts
(as of September 24, 2021) show
some strong losses and gains for the parties compared to the federal elections in 2013 and 2017. If the forecasts were correct, the Union would mean a whopping 10.9 percentage points compared to 2017 and 22.5 Lose percentage points compared to 2013.
The SPD would increase from 20.5 to 25.0 percentage points and thus make a profit of 4.5 percentage points.
In 2013 the party received 25.7 percent of the vote.
Significant gains in votes are conceivable for The Greens.
According to the forecasts, 17.0 percentage points are possible, which would correspond to a significant increase.
The party achieved its best result to date in 2009 with 10.7 percentage points.
According to surveys, the FDP is currently up 1.2 percentage points: from 10.8 in 2017 to currently 12.0 percent.
In 2013, the Free Democrats failed to make it into the Bundestag with 4.8 percent of the vote.
The AfD would achieve a minus of 2.6 percentage points compared to 2017.
It moved into the 19th German Bundestag with 12.6 percent of the vote.
According to current forecasts, the left would have to reckon with a loss of 3.2 percentage points compared to the 2017 result. The free voters are currently at 3 percentage points.
Federal election 2021: which coalitions are possible?
According to current forecasts, both an absolute majority and one of the coalitions that have been tried and tested so far are unlikely in the 2021 federal election: black-yellow (CDU / CSU and FDP), social-liberal coalition (SPD and FDP) and red-green (SPD and the Greens).
According to surveys, the following coalitions are eligible instead
(as of September 24, 2021)
:
Black-Red-Green (CDU / CSU, SPD, The Greens)
Black-Red-Yellow (CDU / CSU, SPD, FDP)
Traffic light coalition (SPD, FDP, The Greens)
Jamaica (CDU / CSU, FDP, The Greens)
Red-Red-Green (SPD, Die Linke, Die Grünen)
Grand coalition (CDU / CSU, SPD)
At
Merkur.de
, you can always find out up-to-date in advance what the polls say for the federal election in 2021.
You will also find an interactive map here with all the results for constituencies and municipalities.
