The scenario was already in everyone's mind.
Last spring, the Greens dreamed of a victory for German environmentalist Annalena Baerbock at the end of September.
Two consecutive polls gave her the winner.
All hopes were then permitted.
“The election of a green chancellor would necessarily have an effect.
This would set in motion a dynamic, ”it was
said at the time from the management of EELV.
The dates of the primary - whose results of the second round will be known Tuesday evening - had even been modeled on the calendar of the federal elections.
Mired in several cases questioning her probity, the candidate finally collapsed in the polls.
French environmentalists have put the German reference on the shelf.
To discover
Presidential 2022: where are the candidates in the polls?
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Hope then teleported to Camp Hidalgo.
Long given the loser, the SPD candidate, Olaf Scholz, who represents German social democracy, is now in the lead in the polls.
“Look how much Olaf Scholz was given six months ago and where he is now.
Thanks to his values and his credibility, he can become the next chancellor, ”
notes a Socialist deputy close to the candidate.
Given at less than 8% in opinion polls - between 4 and 5% in the Odoxa poll for
L'Obs
published on Thursday 23 September - the mayor of Paris dreams of a
"German"
scenario
before April 2022 ...
On the side of the macronie, we are also said to observe with satisfaction the rise of the SPD.
For several months, some feared a progression of the populists of the AfD, which could have played into the hands of the National Rally.
But the latter do not seem to be celebrating, according to the latest polls
.
“If the Social Democrats win it is good for us.
Ideologically, Olaf Scholz is closer to Emmanuel Macron than to the French left, which is more and more caricature ”
, judges an executive of LREM.
"A transpartisan side"
The more so as to have the majority, the candidate of the SPD will have, in addition to forging an alliance with the ecologists, to find a third partner. He will therefore have to turn either to the left party Die Linke or to that of the Liberal Democratic Party, positioned in the center right.
"There will be a transpartisan side that looks a lot like what we do with the presidential majority
,
" said
a Macronist deputy.
"What is happening in Germany is eminently important, we are looking very closely at the possible alliance between the SPD and the Greens"
, adds a minister.
On the right, we prefer to insist on the
“very limited impact”
that German elections generally have on the French presidential election.
“I don't believe in a ripple effect at all.
The French do not pay much attention to what is happening abroad.
Moreover, the AfD is in great difficulty in Germany while Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour have good polls here, ”
insists LR MP Jean-Louis Thiériot.
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German elections: the CDU agitates the fear of "red socks"
An opinion widely shared by a majority of the right, which refutes any comparison between the left and the German and French environmentalists.
“Here, the left is fragmented, and programmatically, it is a few thousand kilometers from the social democracy of the SPD or the German Greens.
Sandrine Rousseau and Annalena Baerbock do not have much in common, ”
judges Moselle MP Fabien Di Filippo.
However, on the right, we fear that the coming to power of a left-wing coalition will disrupt European economic strategy.
“The SPD is rather attached to budgetary orthodoxy, which corresponds rather well to the position of France. But a coalition with the Greens could push Olaf Scholz to review some of his positions, which would go against what we want, ”
warns Jean-Louis Thiériot.