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Germany: neck and neck fight for post-Merkel in the legislative elections

2021-09-25T18:59:49.056Z


For the first time, the Social Democrats or the Conservatives will have to form a coalition of three political parties.


The parliamentary elections which will take place in Germany on Sunday are expected to be the most uncertain the Federal Republic has ever known.

The two parties that have dominated German political life for decades - the Social Democratic SPD and the Christian Democratic Union CDU / CSU - are vying for a victory that promises to be narrow, far from the results of the senatorial ballots to which these parties were held. long accustomed.

A poll published Thursday evening by the ZDF channel confirms the advance of the center-left party, led by the Minister of Finance, Olaf Scholz (25%), but this advance is now reduced to two points.

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In this end of the campaign, Chancellor Angela Merkel with stainless popularity, throws her forces into the battle to push Armin Laschet, the president of the CDU and president of the greater region of North Rhine-Westphalia.

After a meeting on Friday evening in Munich, in the company of the Bavarian leader of the CSU, Markus Söder, she will visit her protégé on Saturday in Aachen.

Will his media presence be enough to stave off the defeat of his own party?

If so, the setback would come after sixteen years of uninterrupted power.

An unprecedented situation

The situation is very interesting. As far as I can remember, we will find ourselves on Sunday in a situation where we will not know the name of the next chancellor at the end of the ballot

”, predicted in

Le Figaro,

Göttz Wies, a CDU executive.

The Federal Republic is a parliamentary democracy where it is customary for the winner of the one-round election to conduct negotiations with other parties with a view to forming a governing coalition.

In 2017, this stage lasted four months at the end of which Angela Merkel, invested by the Bundestag, took the head of a government associating the same two parties which are now vying for the leadership.

This time around, commentators expect the record to be broken, possibly forcing Angela Merkel to delay her political retirement until Christmas.

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Very often boring, devoid of enthusiasm, the campaign often boiled down to details: the giggles of Armin Laschet during a ceremony organized in memory of the victims of the July floods, plagiarism quotes in the book of the Green candidate Annalena Baerbock and errors in her CV… Olaf Scholz's troubles came down to accusations of poor management of his financial records. But unlike his two main opponents, the Minister of Finance made no mistake, appearing as the favorite by default. For the first time in history, none of the candidates can benefit from the traditional outgoing bonus which generally rewards the chancellor-candidate.

Gradually, the SPD leader became the main target of CDU attacks after environmentalists were used as a punching bag. A priori, the exercise was delicate insofar as the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats have governed together three times under Angela Merkel. This time, Armin Laschet suspected his opponent of wanting to ally with the radical left, a prospect likely to worry right-wing voters tempted to stay at home. He also counts on the support of Angela Merkel. On the other hand, some of his "

friends

", in particular within the Bavarian CSU, already seem to anticipate defeat, and prepare the settling of scores: this recent media unpacking could harm him.

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Only a start from the conservative base would allow Armin Laschet, who remains unloved by many activists, to turn at the head of the poll.

"

There are more CDU voters than the SPD among the undecided, and it is not impossible that their mobilization in the last hours will reduce the gap

", analyzed Friday the Forsa polling institute.

Gone are the days when one of these two parties, depending on the alternation, was close to the 40% mark, which was enough for it to seek out a small additional formation and form a majority.

The FDP (liberal) has often fulfilled this function of junior partner.

Tripartite Coalition

In front of these two main contenders now extends a fragmented political landscape.

"

There have never been so many options available to form a government,"

calculates Forsa director Manfred Güllner.

The AfD (far right) continues to attract around a tenth of voters, but remains infrequent in the Bundestag.

Although mathematically integrable in a coalition, Die Linke (radical left) sees its base of voters melt, and could fail to cross the decisive threshold of 5%.

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For the first time since the fourth Adenauer government in 1961, the future coalition will include no less than three allies. Two favorite options of political scientists clash: a CDU chancellor (Laschet) allied with the Greens and the FDP, against an SPD chancellor (Scholz), supported by the same two parties. The latter would then act as arbitrator, endowed proportionately with an electoral weight greater than that which was previously theirs, suggesting difficult negotiations.

The emergence of such a tripartite coalition seems to herald a growing instability in German political life, known until then for its predictability.

It is more difficult to govern with three than with two, and this situation will also weigh at the end of the legislature.

Things will be put back into play during the next election, in 2025,

”predicts Henri Utterwede, political scientist at the Franco-German Institute in Ludwigsburg.

Suffice to say that the era of a chancellor in office for more than a decade - like Angela Merkel - is probably over.

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2021-09-25

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