“The new chancellor?
He is here in Cologne ”.
A woman sends this message on WhatsApp accompanied by a photo just taken of Olaf Scholz.
It is four in the afternoon on Friday and the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) for the German elections this Sunday has just appeared in the Heumarkt square, a 10-minute walk from the famous cathedral of the Rhenish city.
The illusion of the militants and supporters is evident.
For the first time in a long time, they have a chance to catapult one of their own to the top.
But it is advisable not to make bets.
More information
The mobilization against climate change shakes the final stretch of the electoral campaign in Germany
The SPD's slight distance over its direct rival has narrowed to the point of practically disappearing.
A poll commissioned by the
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
newspaper on
Friday attributed 26% of the vote to Social Democrats and 25% to Christian Democrats.
With the studies' margin of error, the situation looks a lot like a technical tie.
Germany is experiencing a heart attack end of the campaign, with uncertainty through the roof. In Cologne, however, Scholz failed to convey too many emotions on Friday. It is not his specialty. He prefers to play the seriousness card, of being someone the Germans can trust. And, above all, he insists that with him as Chancellor, social issues will be at the center of the agenda.
Minimum wage of 12 euros per hour. More scholarships for students. Aid for working mothers and against child poverty. In Scholz's ads there is nothing new about what he has been repeating for weeks. But that is precisely his message: no knock-offs; with it, there will be no unpleasant surprises. “With me as Chancellor, there will be no further increases in the retirement age. And we will guarantee that payments remain stable ”, he assures from the podium. Loud applause from the audience, even if it is an idea that has already been said so many times.
Whatever happens this Sunday, Scholz's accomplishments are undeniable.
A few months ago, no one would have said that the SPD was going to reach the elections in a position to challenge the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) for the chancellery.
For a long time the party was destined to be in third position, behind Christian Democrats and Los Verdes, who then seemed fired.
The party was dangerously close to irrelevance.
Join EL PAÍS now to follow all the news and read without limits
Subscribe here
A year after announcing his candidacy, Scholz's punchy but compelling message - coupled with the unforced errors of his rivals - has skyrocketed his chances.
"I have been a militant for 40 years and I have never seen the party so united behind someone," says Veronika, 69.
“I did not vote for him to chair the SPD, I thought he was not the right one because he was a member of Merkel's [coalition] government.
But now I am convinced that he is the best chancellor we have, ”adds René, a young man who has just joined.
The SPD has led the polls since mid-August, albeit by a small difference that tends to narrow.
According to known studies these days, the difference on CDU ranges from one to four points.
But, even if the votes confirm this demographic advantage, the question of who will rule in Europe's largest economy will not be answered by just these two parties. The results of Greens and Liberals will be key to define the future coalition. And there are no clear majorities either. So many political scientists warn that Germans may go to bed on Sunday without knowing who will rule them. If there is no clear majority, everything will depend on the negotiations from Monday.
In these last hours of the campaign, the candidates appeal to the undecided.
They know that the percentage of people who still do not know who they are going to vote for is higher than ever.
And that it is very likely that everything ends up depending on them.
Experts explain this greater volatility in that voters' attachment to the formations is much lower than before, so that the results are more subject to last minute decisions.
"You must go out and convince voters everywhere, at school, at work or at the sports center," Scholz asked his supporters this Friday.
"We have before us a social democratic decade," said Saskia Esken, co-president of the SPD, ecstatically.
Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris and socialist candidate for the presidency of France, attended the event as a guest.
Before being vice chancellor and finance minister of the grand coalition, Scholz held positions such as mayor of Hamburg, minister of labor or secretary general of the SPD.
He is a professional in politics who has designed his conquest of power with a square and bevel.
Competence
His party took the lead in August last year by naming its candidate before anyone else.
Scholz also presented very early the program with which he wanted to govern.
And while the leader of the CDU, Armin Laschet, fought with his Bavarian partner Markus Söder (CSU) to see who was going to the elections by the conservatives, the Social Democrat traveled the country repeating his message wherever they wanted to hear him.
In this campaign he has visited more than 200 locations.
“He is not a charismatic speaker, but someone who offers knowledge and competence. He gives the impression that he is someone who can guide the country in times of great challenges such as climate change ”, analyzes Peter Dausend, a journalist for the weekly
Die Zeit
. This reporter who has followed the SPD for years attributes Scholz's rise not only to his qualities, but to the weaknesses of his opponents: “Armin Laschet is a regional politician who has never had a relevant position in the federal government. And Annalena Baerbock [the candidate for Los Verdes] is only 40 years old and lacks management experience ”.
In Cologne, those attending the SPD event are hopeful.
Their leader does not excite them, but he does convince them.
Phillip, a newly enrolled 18-year-old student, brings two friends who seem convinced to join the party as well.
He says that he made up his mind because there has always been a social democratic tradition in his family.
But when asked if the rise of the new leader helped him take the plunge, he shakes his head.
"No, for me the most important figures are the historical leaders like Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt," he responds.
Scholz now aspires to be on that honor roll.
Follow all the international information on
and
, or in
our weekly newsletter
.
