Snow chaos, freezing cold or drizzling rain?
How winter 2021/2022 will be in Bavaria cannot be seriously said in autumn.
But there is a tendency.
Munich - It's a bit bold to just go to Bavaria's chief meteorologist Dr.
Call Guido Wolz from the German Weather Service (DWD) and ask about the winter.
"We are far from giving any reliable predictions now," he says coolly.
And then it thaws a bit and explains clearly why even during winter, a concrete snow forecast borders on the impossible.
How will winter be in Bavaria?
Snow chaos year shows how difficult it is to predict
Example snow chaos 2018/2019.
Parts of the Bavarian Forest, but especially the Bavarian Alps and the Oberland, have sunk into meter-high mountains of snow *.
The traffic came to a complete standstill.
Settlements were partly cut off from the outside world.
Several districts triggered the disaster.
The THW and the voluntary fire brigades were in constant use.
Roofs in particular had to be cleared so that they did not collapse under the masses of snow.
Avalanches thundered over roads and ski areas.
Particularly curious: many ski areas in the Bavarian Alps that suffer from a chronic lack of snow had to close in the snow chaos of winter.
There was just too much snow.
Snowed in and icy: a BOB during the disaster in January 2019 in the Miesbach district.
"A few degrees make the difference between snow and rain."
© Andreas Leder
A few kilometers north in Munich, many could not understand the excitement at all.
Because it was raining a little and nothing else happened.
"Two to three degrees make the difference," says DWD meteorologist Wolz.
Two to three degrees differentiate between historical snow chaos and drizzle.
“The general weather situation can change very quickly, especially in winter.
These heavy snowfalls were also not visible four to six weeks beforehand. "
A total of 3347 workers were deployed during the K case in the Bad Tölz-Wolfratshausen district - in the photo they are shoveling the roof of the gymnasium of the Tölz grammar school.
© Bock / Archive
So Wolz prefers to leave that to others to make a statement from September for the coming winter.
Whether on the basis of a mullein in the garden * or the polar vortex over the North Pole. * There are plenty of self-forgiving snow prophets.
Review: The last ten winters in Bavaria were far too warm
You can of course look back.
And there you can see at a glance: The Bavarian winters are getting warmer and warmer.
And that since the 1980s.
Much too mild for years and becoming increasingly mild: The winters in Bavaria measured against the reference climate level from 1961 to 1990.
In 2011 a winter was a little colder than the average for the last time.
In contrast, the trend in temperatures has been increasing for ten years.
Every winter in the past few years has been too mild.
Much too mild.
Winter in Bavaria in 2021/2022 will probably be far too mild again
The winter of 2021/2022 in Bavaria will in all likelihood also be too mild.
"If I were to bet on a cold winter now, I would bet against the trend," says expert Wolz.
Everything is possible, of course, but according to statistics, a mild winter is more likely.
Furthermore, the winters are getting shorter and shorter and always start later in the year.
That says little about the amount of snow.
"The snow chaos winter was also much too mild," remembers Wolz.
So it can happen again in a few months that the Bavarian mountains will sink into snow, while in Munich only the rain will drizzle gently.
With such high temperatures in winter, a few degrees around freezing point make the difference.
* Merkur.de / bayern is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA
By the way: Our Bavaria newsletter informs you about all developments and results from the Free State about the upcoming federal election - and of course about all other important stories from Bavaria.