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Reichstag building in Berlin
Photo: Felix Zahn / IMAGO / photothek
The Merkel era is coming to an end - and with it the time of clear conditions in Germany.
For decades, the Union and the SPD had agreed the Chancellery among themselves, election results of more than 30 percent, sometimes 40 percent, were normal for both parties for a long time.
As things stand, the future head of government is likely to come from the conservative or social democratic camp this time as well.
But in this election campaign with Annalena Baerbock of the Greens, the representative of a third party made a serious claim to the most powerful office in the state for the first time.
And even if it's not enough for that in the end, something has obviously shifted in the republic.
Values around 25 percent - that was a zone that was unimaginable for the Union in the federal government.
But after the decline of social democracy, the CDU and CSU will now also give up in this election.
The comrades, on the other hand, are happy to be able to meet the Union again on a modest level.
In fact, a comparatively meager result this time could be enough to lead the next government.
What this will look like is also more open than seldom before.
The most colorful play of colors will be discussed.
There is much to suggest that in the end it will boil down to a three-way alliance.
That would also be a first for the federal government.
60.4 million people have been called to vote for the Bundestag election, until today, 6 p.m., they can make their mark - if they have not already done so by letter.
There is a lot at stake, the future of the country.
What is the starting position?
What happens after 6 p.m.
The most important questions and answers:
The starting point: What do the surveys say?
The course of the survey curves resembles a roller coaster ride for some parties this year.
First the Union crashed after the mask affair, then the Greens took it to unimagined heights and temporarily even to first place.
Then the CDU and CSU picked up again before the sister parties went down again.
This time the beneficiary was the SPD, which suddenly found its way out of the 15 percent basement.
For a few weeks now, the Social Democrats have been leading all relevant surveys (read more about the latest SPIEGEL evaluation here).
Sometimes only one or two, sometimes three, sometimes even six points behind the Union.
In the end, the battered conservatives were able to recover a little.
The big question is: is it enough to finally intercept the SPD?
The Greens will in all likelihood be able to look forward to large gains compared to the election four years ago, but in the end it will probably not be enough for a claim to the Chancellery.
The FDP also has a chance of a good result.
The pollsters saw the Liberals last between 11 and 13 percent.
In the surveys, the AfD is just below its 12.6 percent in the 2017 election - even though the right-wing populists have had four years full of scandals and played no role in the election campaign.
On the other hand, it looks bad for the left, the comrades could even fall under the five percent threshold.
But after the election night, the question will also be: How reliable were the polls anyway?
The candidates: who is fighting for the Chancellery?
Three chancellor candidates have already competed against each other: in 2002, the FDP nominated its chairman Guido Westerwelle for this role against incumbent Gerhard Schröder from the SPD and Union chancellor candidate Edmund Stoiber.
Although at that time you could book it as an election campaign gag - Westerwelle never had realistic chances.
This time, however, the Greens and their candidate Baerbock made the race for the Chancellery a real three-way battle.
In any case, it looked like this at times, for a long time it even seemed to be a duel between Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet and Baerbock, the party of SPD applicant Olaf Scholz was too beaten in the polls.
But first the head of the Greens failed in the election campaign, then the CDU chairman - and Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor Scholz became more and more popular.
For weeks now, the Social Democrat has been clearly leading in direct comparison to his competitors.
But does he really manage to lift the SPD to number one in the end?
Nobody from the FDP is fighting for the Chancellery this time, but party leader and top candidate Christian Lindner is one of the republic's most popular politicians.
For the Left Party, chairman Janine Wissler and parliamentary group leader Dietmar Barsch stand up as a top duo, as does parliamentary group chairman Alice Weidel and party leader Timo Chrupalla for the AfD.
The election campaign: how did the past few months go?
Election campaign as before - this time it was not possible due to the corona.
And you noticed that, even if the parties were able to adjust to it at an early stage.
There were hardly any major events, some only took place digitally.
With climate change, there was actually a mega-topic for this election campaign, and yet in the end the major content-related controversies were missing.
This was probably also due to the fact that the debates quickly concentrated on mistakes made by the candidates for chancellor.
First, the Greens applicant Baerbock had to justify inaccurate information in her resume for weeks, then it turned out that she had done improperly in her book.
Baerbock's credibility suffered.
North Rhine-Westphalia's Prime Minister Laschet, in turn, brought the flood disaster, which besides Rhineland-Palatinate especially hit North Rhine-Westphalia, off the rails - especially his laugh in the background while Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier spoke to those affected in the flood area.
Also because Laschet postponed the start of his campaign because of the flood, his election campaign never picked up speed, the CDU leader was on the defensive early on.
In addition, there were regular discrepancies from the Bavarian sister party CSU and its chairman Markus Söder, who was defeated by Laschet in the race for the candidacy for chancellor.
Meanwhile, SPD chancellor candidate Scholz was able to watch how his personal values and those of the SPD continued to rise.
Only in the last few meters did the finance minister get into a bit of a mess when his ministry was searched by the public prosecutor's office for investigations against a customs agency located there.
Whether and how much that harmed the SPD and its candidate will be seen on Sunday.
The result: what happens after 6 p.m.?
The polls suggest a close race.
It is quite possible that at 6 p.m., when the election researchers made the first forecast, you won't be much smarter than you are now.
Added to this is the particularly high proportion of postal voters this time, which could delay the counting in some places.
So it may be late before it is clear who is really ahead - and for which alliances it could be enough.
The usual procedure will follow in the coming days: on Monday morning, the leadership bodies of the parties will meet to draw conclusions from the election.
Do you want to explore, and if so, with whom?
Which politicians are strengthened?
Who may have to quit - or is pressured to do so?
It should be particularly explosive for Armin Laschet.
Even if the Union were to catch up with the SPD in the last few meters, it would have to reckon with severe losses, a real debacle.
The displeasure in the CDU and CSU is already great, the frustration could discharge after the election.
The factions of the parties finally meet on Tuesday.
Negotiations then take place - about the next government of the Federal Republic.
Incidentally, the new parliament, which will meet on October 26th at the latest, could look very different.
Because the government screwed up an effective electoral reform and a number of overhang seats are expected, a bloated Bundestag threatens - with more than 800 members.
The coalitions: which alliances are possible?
For Union Chancellor candidate Laschet, the matter is clear: He is aiming for a Jamaican coalition with the FDP and the Greens.
That would also be the favorite alliance of the liberals, where such an alliance failed in 2017.
In mathematical terms, Jamaica could also be possible for Laschet if the Union is only the second strongest force.
But he could only derive a clear mandate to form a government from an election victory.
According to the polls, the SPD, in turn, could try two ways to make Olaf Scholz Chancellor.
Via a red-green-yellow traffic light - for this, however, the Social Democrats would have to win over the FDP, despite blatant differences in social and financial policy.
Or a red-green-red alliance with the Left Party.
The left wing comrades have been positioning themselves for this for weeks.
However, both Scholz and Baerbock have clearly distanced themselves from red-green-red.
The left is still considered unreliable, its maximum foreign policy demands are an imposition for any potential partner.
In purely mathematical terms, it could also be enough for a renewed grand coalition - which, however, would meet with the most violent defensive reflexes, especially in the SPD.
In the end, it depends on the FDP and the Greens.
Are the liberals more likely to get involved in the traffic light - or does the eco-party agree with a conservative alliance?
