Scholz or Laschet?
SPD or Union?
Who will run for the Chancellery in the 2021 federal elections?
That is what the first forecasts say.
The news ticker.
In the federal election *, the Germans will elect a new parliament on Sunday (September 26, 2021).
The polls * recently showed a narrow lead for Olaf Scholz '* SPD over Armin Laschets * Union.
The race for mandates and chancellorship was largely open.
Laschet broke down on election day
(update from 3:15 p.m.).
Projections and initial results * point in the direction of an election victory for the SPD (
update from 8:14 p.m.
).
However, the Union is also striving for the Chancellery - regardless of the final result (
update from 8:20 p.m.
).
This news ticker will be continuously updated on election evening.
Update from September 26th, 10:49 p.m.:
Another party is likely to move into the Bundestag: The South Schleswig Voters Association (SSW) celebrated the likely return to the Bundestag after several decades on late Sunday evening.
According to projections, the minority party from Schleswig-Holstein, which has been freed from the five percent hurdle, will in future have a member of parliament in Berlin.
"This is a huge sensation for our small but fantastic party," said top candidate Stefan Seidler, who wants to sit in the Bundestag as a non-attached member of the Bundestag.
Whether the SSW will actually be represented in the Bundestag will probably not be known until early Monday morning.
Bundestag election: projections point to SPD victory
Update from September 26, 10:29 p.m.:
The
spikes
in the new projections are sometimes even larger.
In the most recent figures from ARD, the Greens again gained 0.4 percentage points, while the AfD lost 0.2 percentage points.
The left balances with 5.0 percentage points on the precipice.
The race for the role as the strongest parliamentary group seems decided: The SPD wins 0.1 percentage points, the Union loses the same amount.
Extrapolation |
Was standing: |
CDU / CSU |
SPD |
Green |
FDP |
AfD |
left |
Others |
ARD / Infratest Dimap |
10:03 p.m. |
24.1 |
25.9 |
14.7 |
11.5 |
10.4 |
5.0 |
8.4 |
ZDF / Research Group Elections |
8:59 p.m. |
24.5 |
26.0 |
13.9 |
11.7 |
10.5 |
5.0 |
8.4 |
Update from September 26, 10:07 p.m.:
A new extrapolation from ARD and Infratest dimap seems to dispel further doubts about an SPD election victory.
According to the latest figures, the Social Democrats' lead has increased again.
Bundestag election: left before the big crash?
Trembling for Wissler, Bartsch and Co. intensifies
Update from September 26th, 9:35 p.m.:
The drama about the left is coming to a head: The party threatens to miss the five percent hurdle with projections of exactly 5.0 percent.
At the same time, their alternative for entering parliament is shaky: with three directly elected candidates, the left could move into the Bundestag below the hurdle.
But this goal is currently a long way off.
After about a third to half of the votes cast had been counted, the left-wing candidates were only in the lead in two constituencies around 9 p.m. in Berlin. In Treptow-Köpenick, Gregor Gysi was in second place with an intermediate result of 33 percent of the first votes, well ahead of the SPD with 15 percent. In Lichtenberg, Gesine Lötzsch led with 24 percent before the SPD with 19 percent. In Marzahn-Hellersdorf, however, the former Berlin Senator for Social Affairs Mario Czaja (CDU) was with 29 percent ahead of the Bundestag Vice President Petra Pau (left) with 20 percent. In Pankow, the SPD candidate led with 22 percent, ahead of the left-wing politician Udo Wolf with 15 percent. There, however, only 20 percent of the polling stations were counted.
In 2017, in addition to these four constituencies, the Left also won the Leipzig II direct constituency.
There is currently no intermediate status from there.
Update from September 26th, 9:30 pm:
The talk marathon on the evening of the federal election continues: In the first, “Anne Will” rolls around the findings of the polls.
After the elephant round, however, the guests tend to come from the second row of the parties.
Among others, SPD General Secretary Lars Klingbeil, his FDP counterpart Volker Wissing and Saxony-Anhalt's recently turbulent Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff (CDU) are represented.
Bundestag election: Further projections cement leadership for SPD and Scholz
Update from September 26th, 9:17 pm:
ARD and ZDF are now
presenting
new projections. In both variants, the SPD's lead increases slightly. According to the data from Infratest Dimap, it is now 1.2 percentage points; the research group Wahlen estimates it at 1.5 percentage points. Remarkable: The left has not moved by a single tenth of a percentage point since the first forecast. The party remains at exactly 5.0 percent.
Green co-boss Robert Habeck, meanwhile, calls for a new approach to the explorations in the first.
You need a common government idea - at the Jamaica explorations in 2017, you ultimately presented "150 pages of dissent" and lost yourself in the indentations.
FDP Vice Johannes Vogel essentially agrees with him - it is possible that both parties could start talks soon (
see update from 8:28 p.m.
).
Bundestag election: what's next for Laschet and Scholz?
The CDU chief is remarkably cautious
Update from September 26th, 9:13 pm:
Laschet and Scholz also comment on their personal future in the elephant
round at
the end - Laschet is remarkably cautious in one detail.
Because while Scholz does not lay claim to the post of SPD parliamentary group leader from the outset and emphasizes that he wants to become chancellor, his opponent remains more vague.
As CDU leader, he wanted to lead the coalition negotiations; the future at the top of the parliamentary group would be decided later.
Bundestag election: Merkel's successor before Christmas?
Scholz and Laschet name the goal - the left has doubts
Update from September 26, 9:05 p.m.:
How long will the formation of a coalition take?
Olaf Scholz does not want to commit himself to a specific point in time in the elephant round - that would be "absurd", states the SPD candidate for chancellor.
But he wants to be ready "before Christmas".
Armin Laschet makes a similar statement for the CDU, he is putting even more pressure on Germany with the approaching G7 presidency in 2022.
Christian Lindner and Annalena Baerbock again emphasize their will to "talk to others in advance".
"Nobody here in the group has any idea how they want to get together," says Linke boss Susanne Hennig-Wellsow.
Federal election 2021: Maaßen probably fails in Thuringia - CSU surprise in Munich
Update from September 26, 8:54 p.m.:
While the party
leaders are debating coalition options
on television after the federal election, the first vote result is already sharpening in many constituencies. For example, CDU right-wing winger Hans-Georg Maaßen clearly seems to miss entering the Bundestag. According to a report in the
Thuringian regional newspaper
, after 364 of the 418 electoral districts have been counted, the SPD candidate Frank Ullrich is well ahead of Maaßen. The interim result here is 32.7 to 22.5 percent. Maassen is almost on a par with the AfD candidate Jürgen Treutler (22.4 percent).
In Munich, meanwhile, the CSU could achieve an unexpected success with direct mandates: Currently, candidates for the Christian Socials are in the front in three of the four Munich constituencies, as
reported by
tz.de
*.
Before the election day, only one direct mandate for the CSU in the Bavarian capital was expected.
Update from September 26th, 8:42 pm:
Baerbock also shows once again the will to participate in the government: It is now "not about the lowest common denominator", but about "setting the course for the future", emphasizes the Greens.
She repeatedly calls for a "climate government".
"Everyone will have to go out of their comfort zone," emphasizes CSU boss Markus Söder - of course, with a clear focus on Jamaica.
Bundestag election: coalition poker begins with the elephant round - Lindner and Baerbock are open to the unorthodox variant
Update from September 26th, 8:28 pm:
FDP boss Christian Lindner brings up a somewhat unorthodox exploratory
variant
in the “Berlin Round”: He suggests that the Greens and FDP, as exponents of “change” in the country, speak to each other first.
Annalena Baerbock is directly open to the idea - the traditional procedure, according to which “one calls everyone else”, is counterproductive.
If it actually did so, the Greens and Liberals could theoretically enter into talks with a joint block of demands with the SPD and CDU as a conceivable chancellor party.
Update from September 26th, 8:20 pm:
In the "Berlin Round" it quickly becomes clear: Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Armin Laschet (CDU) are both striving towards the Chancellery.
Scholz emphasizes that he wants a government in which the whole country can find itself.
Laschet also expresses himself in a similar way - but he also explains: "The party that was in first place was not always the party that appointed the Chancellor."
+
Heated mood in the ARD elephant group?
The top politicians of all Bundestag parties talk about the result of the federal election in 2021.
© Screenshot ARD
Update from September 26, 8:14 p.m.:
In these minutes, the traditional elephant
round
of ARD and ZDF begins on TV - shortly before that, ZDF also provides new data: In the figures of the research group Wahlen, the leadership of the SPD stabilizes in front of the Union, it is now estimated at 1.4 percentage points.
In this extrapolation, too, the Greens lose slightly, while the Left remains at 5.0 percent.
Extrapolation: |
Was standing: |
CDU / CSU |
SPD |
Green |
FDP |
AfD |
left |
Others |
ARD / Infratest Dimap |
7:59 p.m. |
24.5% |
25.5% |
13.8% |
11.7% |
10.9% |
5.0% |
8.6% |
ZDF / Research Group Elections |
8:13 p.m. |
24.5% |
25.9% |
14.1% |
11.7% |
10.6% |
5.0% |
8.2% |
Bundestag election: Scholz leadership consolidates - Greens break into projections again
Update from September 26th, 8:05 p.m.:
A brand new ARD extrapolation is now approaching the ZDF figures: The distance between the SPD and Union increases here to one percentage point.
The Greens, however, slide comparatively massively to 13.8 percent - the previous extrapolation had seen the party of Baerbock and Habeck at 14.3 percent.
The left remains astonishingly stable - just at the magical limit of 5.0 percent.
Top candidate Dietmar Bartsch was optimistic on ZDF: “I'm confident that there will be a 5 in front,” he said.
Bartsch also referred to the so-called basic mandate clause, which would allow full withdrawal if three direct mandates were won.
Federal election 2021: Lindner rows towards Jamaica - "If good can be achieved ..."
Update from September 26, 7:55 p.m.: It is
still open who will emerge from the election evening as the strongest parliamentary group. But it seems very likely that the FDP will become the kingmaker. Party leader Christian Lindner announced preferences for the Union in the evening. "Democratic parties should never rule out talking," he said on ZDF. The greatest similarities, however, exist in a Jamaica coalition.
Like Armin Laschet before, Lindner also emphasized that all coalition partners must “find themselves” in the alliance.
He wants to campaign for a possible black-green-yellow alliance to be fairer with the Greens than in 2017 the Union and the Greens with the FDP.
“If good can be achieved, then the government must not be left to others”, he emphasizes with a view to his famous verdict “it is better not to govern at all than to govern badly”.
However, the SPD finds itself "oriented very far to the left of the center".
Bundestag election in the live ticker: New ARD extrapolation sees SPD's lead growing slightly
Update from September 26th, 7.49 p.m.:
In another extrapolation from ARD / infratest dimap, the SPD's lead increases again somewhat.
It is now 0.6 percentage points.
The Greens lose a little in this water level - just like the AfD.
The left remains constant at 5.0 percent.
Bundestag election: Scholz now speaks of "government" - projections leave a lot open
Update from September 26th, 7:33 p.m.:
The ZDF has added another extrapolation - both Union (now 24.6 percent) and SPD (25.7 percent) are slightly increasing, the leadership of the Social Democrats melts minimally.
In the station, SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz * expresses himself again.
Now, remarkably, a little more clearly than a few minutes ago in front of your own party supporters.
The voters wanted “that I create a government”, he explains - “I also feel obliged to do that”.
Bundestag election: further projections from ARD and ZDF - more fear and hope for Scholz and Laschet
Update from September 26, 7:22 p.m.:
Two more projections are available.
However, there are no major shifts - and therefore no clarity in the crucial questions of the evening.
Furthermore, the Union and the SPD are close to each other.
ARD and Infratest dimap estimate the lead of the Social Democrats at 0.2 percentage points, ZDF and the research group Elections at 1.2 percentage points.
Both institutes continue to see the left at exactly 5.0 percent.
Bundestag election: coalition question is already boiling - Habeck's Greens do not reject the union either
Update from September 26th, 7:12 p.m.:
FDP leader Christian Lindner is gently taking a course for government participation in his first reaction.
"The political center has been strengthened, the margins have been weakened," he diagnosed as a result of the election.
“The citizens want a government to be formed from the center,” adds Lindner.
“We want to govern,” explains the Greens co-chairman Robert Habeck in an interview with ZDF.
He did not rule out an alliance with the Union.
The coalition question should now occupy Germany for weeks or even months *.
Bundestag election: Baerbock and Scholz stand in front of the supporters - the SPD candidate refrains from clear words
Update from September 26th, 7:04 pm:
SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz speaks in his first reaction in the Willy Brandt House of a "great success" of his party *, he gets long applause and cheers.
The course of the evening has to be awaited - but many citizens have made their crosses with the SPD and thus also voted for a Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
He also sees an "order" for the SPD.
The incumbent Vice Chancellor, however, is more cautious than Laschet and speaks of a mandate to implement what was “discussed in the election campaign”.
Scholz does not use the words “coalition” or “government” in his mouth.
+
Olaf Scholz gives a short speech at the SPD election party.
© Odd ANDERSEN / AFP
Green leader Annalena Baerbock has now also stepped onto the stage at her party's election party.
“We can't just cheer,” she said, referring to the growth of the Greens.
“We came for the first time to shape this country as a leading force.
We wanted more, also because of my own mistakes at the beginning of the campaign, it didn't work, ”she admitted.
At the same time, Baerbock also referred to “an order for the future”.
Bundestag election: According to the first extrapolation - Laschet is combative
Update from September 26th, 6:52 p.m.:
Meanwhile, Armin Laschet appears to the CDU supporters in the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus * with friendly applause.
“It was clear to us that without an official bonus it would be an open, tough, narrow election campaign,” he emphasizes.
Laschet speaks of an "exceptional situation" and a "head-to-head race" - but the Union could not be satisfied with the result.
It now requires an effort on the part of all democrats to “hold Germany together”.
The CDU leader sees an order to prevent a “left-wing federal government”.
+
Armin Laschet first thanks Angela Merkel after the announcement of the first prognoses for the outcome of the federal election at the election party of the Union.
© Peter Kneffel / dpa
The subtext: The Union will aim for a Jamaica coalition even in the event of an election defeat.
Laschet emphasizes that every partner has to find his or her core goals in this.
A first offer to the FDP and the Greens - and possibly also a reference to their own often vaunted ability to integrate into government alliances *.
Federal election 2021: projections are available - SPD just ahead, left before the crash
Update from September 26th, 6:50 p.m.:
Now the first projections are available.
Furthermore, the race for the election victory remains quite open: ARD and infratest dimap see SPD and Union almost on a par, the first extrapolation by the research group Elections for ZDF sees the SPD 1.6 percentage points in front.
A ride on the razor blade for the left seems to be looming.
However, the current numbers are still based on a very small number of votes counted.
Extrapolation |
time |
CDU / CSU |
SPD |
Green |
FDP |
AfD |
left |
Others |
Infratest Dimap / ARD |
6.43pm: |
24.7% |
24.9% |
14.8% |
11.2% |
11.3% |
5.0% |
8.1% |
Research group elections / ZDF |
6.45 p.m .: |
24.2% |
25.8% |
14.7% |
11.8% |
10.1% |
5.0% |
8.4% |
Update from September 26, 6:34 p.m.:
The first reactions from the parties have already arrived, the first extrapolation for the federal election is still a long way off. But some tendencies are already emerging - for example, that the formation of a government will be exciting. It does not yet seem entirely clear whether the SPD will remain in front of the Union on election evening. The Social Democrats, however, have already certified themselves as having a "government mandate".
But the CDU and CSU have already indicated that they would also go looking for a majority from second place.
The means of choice in this case would be an alliance with the Greens and the FDP.
CDU General Secretary described the variant on Twitter as a “real future coalition”.
In any case, the result is a low blow for the Union - Chancellor candidate and party leader Armin Laschet should emerge weakened from the election evening.
The red-green-red alliance feared by the Union seems impossible for the time being.
However, the left could also whirl up the result indirectly.
It is still unclear whether the party will jump the five percent hurdle.
Alternatively, the Left Party could jump into parliament through three direct mandates it won.
But even these are not yet secured.
There are great opportunities for this in the east of Berlin.
Federal election 2021: Left disappointed, FDP celebrates
Update from September 26, 6:22 p.m.:
Meanwhile, there is disillusionment on the left.
"We're fighting for five percent," said Federal Managing Director Jörg Schindler on Sunday evening in Berlin.
Party leader Susanne Hennig-Wellsow admitted that "mistakes" had been made.
The AfD was satisfied, despite the expected minor losses: The regular electorate was "stabilized", said top candidate Tino Chrupalla on ZDF.
According to General Secretary Volker Wissing, the FDP is “huge” about the prospective double-digit result.
Meanwhile, there are also initial forecasts for the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin.
On the coast, the SPD is likely to achieve a safe election victory.
An open race between the SPD and the Greens is looming in Berlin.
Forecasts for the Bundestag election: CSU threatens the worst result since 1949 - Blume sees left-wing alliance avoided
Update from September 26th, 6.15 p.m.:
There is rather unpleasant news for the CSU.
According to the BR's first figures, the party in the Free State could land at 33 percent *.
That would be the worst result in a federal election since 1949. Secretary-General Markus Blume is nevertheless quite satisfied: According to the current status, there is no majority for a left-wing alliance, but a bourgeois majority is within reach - Blume is probably also alluding to Jamaica.
Bundestag election: SPD General Klingbeil sees “government mandate” - Union squints at Jamaica
Update from September 26th, 6:05 pm:
Cheers at the SPD - "We have the government mandate, Olaf Scholz is to become Chancellor", attested Secretary General Lars Klingbeil on the ZDF microphone.
However, he also admitted: In view of the possible imprecision in the first forecasts, a lot will still have to be seen.
CDU counterpart Paul Ziemiak, on the other hand, spoke of a "head-to-head race".
One will now have to "speak".
Ziemiak also did not rule out a Jamaica coalition led by a runner-up union.
Federal election 2021: First predictions - Union and SPD head to head, left must fear
Update from September 26th, 6:00 p.m.:
The first prognoses for the result of the federal election are now available.
The prognoses of ARD and ZDF differ in some cases decisively: Whoever sees the second with the numbers of the research group elections, the SPD at least two percentage points ahead of the Union, both parties are equal in the opinion polls from Infratest Dimap.
It seems clear that the left has to fear for a long time: In the exit polls of both channels, the party is estimated at 5 percent.
The joy of the Greens is likely to be comparatively low.
The party has increased significantly compared to the 2017 election - in the first forecasts, Annalena Baerbock and Co. are around 10 percentage points behind the SPD and Union.
Update from September 26th, 5:57 p.m.:
Shortly before the publication of the first election
forecasts,
one doubt has been dispelled: Despite polling stations in Berlin that are still open, the numbers of exit polls may be reported by the broadcasters.
ZDF presenter Bettina Schausten has just confirmed that.
Bundestag election 2021: One result of the election has already been determined - Parliament is likely to grow significantly again
Update from September 26, 5:52 p.m.:
The tension in Berlin and at the election parties across Germany is increasing: the first forecasts for the federal election will be published in eight minutes.
One result of the election seems already clear - the Bundestag is likely to become significantly larger again and thus experience new problems in parliamentary work.
"We get a significantly worse product for a lot more money," said expert Joachim Behnke in an interview with
Merkur.de
*.
Bundestag election: waiting for the first forecasts - but how reliable will they be?
Update from September 26, 5:29 p.m.:
Another half an hour, then the first forecasts for the outcome of the federal election will be published.
It is unclear, however, how much these first numbers will be subject to fluctuations in the course of the evening.
It is always possible - but in 2021 the discrepancies between the first forecasts from the exit polls and the projections sharpened over the election evening could be particularly large.
One reason for this is the expected high percentage of postal voters.
Bundestag election: Exit polls published - Free voter boss Hubert Aiwanger breaks taboo, CSU outraged
Update vom 26. September, 16.44 Uhr: Nach CDU-Chef und Kanzlerkandidat Armin Laschet (der seinen Wahlzettel falsch gefaltet in die Urne warf*; siehe Update von 15.50 Uhr) hat auch der Vorsitzende der Freien Wähler, Hubert Aiwanger, einen Wahl-Eklat provoziert. Aiwanger bemühte sich am Sonntagnachmittag um einen letzten Wahlkampf-Push - und veröffentlichte Zahlen eines Exit-Polls der Forschungsgruppe Wahlen*.
Neue Umfragen und insbesondere Nachwahlbefragungen während der Öffnung der Wahllokale zu veröffentlichen, ist in Deutschland allerdings streng verboten. Zahlen gehen vor 18 Uhr lediglich streng vertraulich an Spitzenpolitiker. Aiwanger löschte den Tweet wohl aus diesem Grund wieder. Ein gewisser Schaden dürfte allerdings bereits geschehen sein, Screenshots des Tweets kursierten am Nachmittag auf Twitter. Die Bayern-SPD forderte in Person von Generalsekretär Arif Tasdelen die Entlassung Aiwangers aus dem Kabinett von Ministerpräsident Markus Söder.
Auch die CSU zeigte sich empört - Generalsekretär Markus Blume schrieb: „Hubert Aiwanger verbreitet vor 18 Uhr Prognoseergebnisse und verbindet sie mit einem Wahlaufruf. Ein unglaublicher Fall von Wahlmanipulation und Wählerbeeinflussung.“ Dieses Vorgehen sei zutiefst undemokratisch und müsse Konsequenzen haben, schrieb der CSU-Generalsekretär über den Koalitionspartner seiner Partei in Bayern.
Bundestagswahl 2021: Erste Zahlen zur Wahlbeteiligung - niedrigere Beteiligung als 2017, Briefwahl wohl Hauptgrund
Update vom 26. September, 16.18 Uhr: Mittlerweile liegen die ersten Zahlen zur Bundestagswahl an diesem Sonntag vor - es handelt sich aber natürlich „nur“ um die Wahlbeteiligung. Bis 14 Uhr hatten nach Angaben des Bundeswahlleiters weniger Menschen als vor vier Jahren ihre Stimme abgegeben. 36,5 Prozent der Wahlberechtigten hatten bis zu diesem Zeitpunkt gewählt, 4,6 Prozentpunkte weniger als vor vier Jahren.
Eine Überraschung ist das allerdings nicht. „Die aktuell ermittelte Wahlbeteiligung liegt erwartungsgemäß unter dem Wert von 2017, da wir von einem deutlich erhöhten Anteil von Briefwählerinnen und Briefwählern ausgehen, deren Wahlbeteiligung zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt im Rahmen der Ermittlung des endgültigen Wahlergebnisses festgestellt wird“, erklärte Bundeswahlleiter Georg Thiel.
Die Wahlbeteiligung hatte vor vier Jahren insgesamt 76,2 Prozent betragen; der Anteil der Briefwählerinnen und -wähler damals betrug 28,6 Prozent. Die Wahllokale sind heute noch bis 18:00 Uhr geöffnet. Sonderregeln könnten aufgrund von Verzögerungen und Pannen in Berlin (siehe voriges Update) gelten: Wer dort bis 18.00 Uhr in der Schlange steht, darf noch wählen.
Bundestagswahl: Wahlpannen in Berlin - lange Schlangen vor einigen Wahllokalen
Update vom 26. September, 15.50 Uhr: In Berlin kam es am Sonntag zu Verzögerungen bei den Wahlen durch Pannen. So wurden in einigen Wahllokalen Stimmzettel für die Abgeordnetenhauswahl aus den Bezirken Friedrichshain/Kreuzberg und Charlottenburg/Wilmersdorf vertauscht. Bis die richtigen Stimmzettel vorlagen, mussten die Wahllokale zeitweise schließen. Außerdem stimmten die Berliner für die Bundestagswahl und einen Volksentscheid ab. Es bildeten sich lange Schlangen vor der Wahllokalen.
Bundestagswahl 2021: Wahl-Panne von Armin Laschet - „erfüllt ein Klischee“
Update vom 26. September, 15.15 Uhr: CDU-Chef Armin Laschet hat es noch einmal geschafft: Er konnte seinen Namen am Wahltag auf den Nachrichtenportalen lesen. Ob er sich über den Grund freut, ist aber unbekannt. Denn es geht um eine Panne im Wahllokal. Der Kanzlerkandidat hatte den Wahlzettel falsch gefaltet, sodass alle sehen konnten, wo er seine zwei Kreuze gemacht hat. Ein Aufschrei in den sozialen Netzwerken folgte. „Ein bundesweit bekannter Politiker hat wie erwartet seine eigene Partei gewählt. Eine Wählerbeeinflussung kann darin nicht gesehen werden“, teilte der Bundeswahlleiter sodann auf Twitter mit.
The incorrectly folded ballot paper from Laschet "fulfills a cliché about Armin Laschet," said Herrmann Binkert, head of the INSA polling institute, according to the
picture
about the faux pas
.
However, he does not believe that the incident "will have any consequences for the outcome of the election".
The question that probably worries not only Binkert: "Was that just clumsy or was it intentional?"
+
Two chancellor candidates in the crisis area: Armin Laschet (left) and Olaf Scholz eye each other in Stolberg in the summer.
© Marius Becker / AFP
Bundestag election 2021 live: Scholz or Laschet - who will be Chancellor?
The first projections are approaching
Erstmeldung vom 26. September: Berlin - Der Tag der Bundestagswahl 2021 ist gekommen - nach einem langen und teils zähen Wahlkampf steht Deutschland damit nun eine Veränderung ins Haus, so viel ist sicher: Angela Merkel* tritt nach 16 Jahren als Kanzlerin ab. Ein neuer Regierungschef wird ins Kanzleramt einziehen. Wer das sein wird, das ließen die Umfragen allerdings auch bis kurz vor dem Wahltag* offen. Eine eindeutig stärkste Fraktion zeichnete sich in den Erhebungen nicht ab. SPD und Union mit ihren Kanzlerkandidaten Olaf Scholz* und Armin Laschet (CDU) dürften aber die größten Chancen haben.
Bundestagswahl 2021: Scholz oder Laschet, wer wird Merkels Erbe? Koalitionsfrage noch völlig offen
Für beide Anwärter auf das Merkel-Erbe kommen aber weitere Unwägbarkeiten hinzu. Denn anders als in früheren Jahren ist auch die Frage nach möglichen Regierungskoalitionen weitgehend offen - und ziemlich komplex. Noch 2017 galten das (spät in den Verhandlungen geplatzte) Jamaika-Bündnis und die Große Koalition als einzig realistische Varianten. Vor der Wahl 2021 liegen nicht weniger als sechs Koalitionen in Reichweite. Einzig die AfD ist bei den Gedankenspielen komplett außen vor.
Neben den beiden genannten könnten das eine „Ampel“ (SPD, Grüne, FDP), Rot-Grün-Rot (SPD, Grüne, Linke), „Deutschland“ (Union, SPD, FDP), „Kenia“ (CDU, SPD, Grüne) sein. Je nach Wahlausgang könnten sogar auch Rot-Grün oder eine Minderheitsregierung Diskussionsgegenstand werden*. Viel Arbeit wartet nach den ersten Prognosen und Hochrechnungen auf Scholz und Laschet, aber auch auf die Spitzenkandidaten der anderen Parteien, die Grüne Annalena Baerbock*, den Liberalen Christian Lindner und Janine Wissler von der Linken.
Bundestagswahl live im Ticker: Wie geht es für CDU und CSU weiter? Ergebnis wird Aufschluss geben
Klar scheint auch, dass nach der langen Ära Merkel inhaltlich viel auf dem Spiel steht. Nahezu alle Bundestagsparteien haben den Urnengang zur „Richtungswahl“ ausgerufen. Ihnen geht es um das Ausmaß der Klimaschutz-Bemühungen*, aber auch um die Steuer- und Wirtschaftspolitik und den Sozialstaat - oder die Rente, bei der weiterhin Justierungen ins Haus stehen.
Spannend wird ganz allgemein auch die Zusammensetzung des neuen Bundestags und das weitere Schicksal der Parteispitzen. Eine Wahlniederlage dürfte CDU* und CSU größere Umwälzungen bringen, auch Armin Laschets Zukunft wäre wohl offen* - ebenso wie die Frage, ob auch die Union den Status als „Volkspartei“ verliert. Das deutsche Parlament könnte unterdessen trotz einer Wahlrechtsreform der GroKo noch einmal anwachsen. Experten rechneten zuletzt auch mit einem Schwung politischer Newcomer im Kreis der Abgeordneten nach der Bundestagswahl. Eventuell ein Stoß frischen Windes zur rechten Zeit. Auf Merkur.de bekommen Sie alle Infos rund um die Bundestagswahl 2021*. Darüber hinaus versorgen wir Sie mit allen wichtigen Daten und Zahlen auf unserer interaktiven Karte mit allen Ergebnissen für Wahlkreise und Gemeinden. ( fn
) *
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List of rubric lists: © Wolfgang Kumm / dpa / Ina Fassbender / AFP
