With the end of the Bundestag election, the super election year 2021 will also end. Which coalition will govern the Federal Republic of Germany for the next four years?
Berlin - The fact that the government in the composition it had during the last legislative period is no longer fit for the future appeared to be impossible before the 2021 federal election not only because of the party content but also because of the polls: For a long time, the grand coalition of the CDU and The SPD, as it currently governs, does not have enough votes to continue its political career in the same constellation. Shortly before the election, the CDU / CSU in particular rose again by a few percentage points. But what does that mean for the new parliamentary term of the Bundestag?
(Election data, live ticker, background coverage - all information about the federal election 2021 can be found in our politics newsletter.)
For the first time since 2002, three Chancellor candidates fought for office in this year's Bundestag election: In addition to the CDU Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet, who in the meantime was responsible for the historically worst poll results for his party, Federal Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD) and the Green Chancellor candidate also fought Annalena Baerbock to succeed Angela Merkel.
Which coalition will ultimately govern Germany for the next four years was open to the last.
With the first results from election night, however, the picture is now clearer.
Surveys on the 2021 federal election: The following coalitions turned out to be possible
All parties have excluded a coalition with the AfD from the outset.
The left were also given poor chances of joining the government, although the SPD did not want to categorically rule out a possible coalition until the end.
The left was not only a victim of the Union's anti-left slide campaigns, but was also seen as an unattractive coalition partner due to its foreign policy standpoint, among other things.
The CDU / CSU, SPD, Die Grünen and FDP remained.
It was to be expected that these parties would merge after the general election.
In view of the polls shortly before the federal election, the following coalitions turned out to be possible:
Black-Red-Green (CDU / CSU, SPD, The Greens)
Black-Red-Yellow (CDU / CSU, SPD, FDP)
Traffic light coalition (SPD, FDP, The Greens)
Jamaica (CDU / CSU, FDP, The Greens)
Red-Red-Green (SPD, Die Linke, Die Grünen)
Grand coalition (CDU / CSU, SPD)
Results of the 2017 and 2021 federal elections: who will form a new coalition?
In the 2017 federal election, in addition to the grand coalition of CDU / CSU and SPD, which was able to collect 53.4 percent of the vote, an opposition composed of the remaining major parties emerged.
The following is a comparison of the results of the federal election in 2021 and 2017:
Parties |
Results 2017 in% |
Results 2021 in% |
|---|---|---|
CDU / CSU |
32.9 |
|
SPD |
20.5 |
|
AfD |
12.6 |
|
FDP |
10.7 |
|
The left |
9.2 |
|
Alliance 90 / The Greens |
8.9 |
|
Others |
5.0 |
An overview of the results from the 46 Bavarian constituencies is available here. The development of the survey results for the major parties in the Bundestag in the run-up to the Bundestag election here.
Bundestag election 2017: coalition and opposition in the Bundestag
For example, the AfD was able to win most of the votes of all political groups in the opposition for its first legislative period in the Bundestag and, as the leading parliamentary group, provide the chairman.
In concrete terms, this was the result:
Coalition parties: Grand coalition of CDU / CSU and SPD
Opposition: formed all parties apart from the coalition parties, i.e. FDP, the Left, Greens and AfD
Leading parliamentary group: AfD
The negotiations about the formation of a government in Germany have never lasted longer than in the election year 2017: It took several months for the grand coalition to form the governing coalition.
The negotiations for a Jamaica coalition failed again and again until the SPD finally stepped out of the opposition and formed a government with the CDU.
The AfD became the group leader as the strongest parliamentary group.
Federal election 2021: This coalition will rule Germany for the next four years
This is how the 20th Bundestag is composed for the new legislative period:
Coalition parties: still open
Opposition: still open
Leading parliamentary group: still open
After 16 years in government under Angela Merkel, Germany has to reorient itself politically.
And a lot will also change in the Bundestag and the German political party landscape.
The coming months will show how politicians are coping with this change of government after a long time - and what the new coalition is promising.
(klb)