The groundbreaking federal election in 2021 is imminent.
What do the polls say shortly before the election?
An overview.
The latest polls promise an exciting federal election in 2021 *.
Will the union of the CDU * and CSU * again be the strongest force in the Bundestag * or will the SPD * win the race?
Olaf Scholz * (SPD) wants to become Federal Chancellor - and receives more approval than Armin Laschet * (CDU).
Update from Sunday, September 26th, 2021, 8:03 a.m.:
The polling stations have been open for a few minutes.
You can still cast your vote until 6 p.m., then it will be decided how close the current polls are to the final result.
As of now, it looks like a neck-and-neck race between the SPD and the Union.
Survey hammer shortly before the federal election in 2021: Sudden turnaround for Laschet?
The current status
+++ 7.20 p.m.:
The polls for the federal election indicate an exciting, because extremely close race.
The SPD and CDU are close together, the Greens just behind.
Who will win the election in the end, that should be clear shortly after the polling stations close.
But Germany may have to wait a long time for what the next federal government will look like.
We have put together the most important information for you shortly before the start of the federal election.
+++ 2.29 p.m.:
A look at the 2017 Bundestag election shows that polls before a Bundestag election are only rough guidelines as is well known, only 32.9 percent.
The closest thing to it was Insa with a forecast of 34 percent for the CDU and CSU.
Just over 24 hours will show how close the research institutes are with their surveys this year.
Last polls for the federal election: Will Laschet overtake the SPD man Scholz in the last few meters?
Update from 09/25/2021, 6:00 a.m.:
The fight for the Chancellery is still completely open.
Although the SPD is ahead of the Union by up to four points in some surveys, not all opinion research institutes agree.
In a new survey, the Union has moved up to one point on the SPD.
In the survey by the Allensbach Institute for Demoscopy, the Social Democrats lose one percentage point and come to 26 percent, the CDU / CSU unchanged at 25 percent.
The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung commissioned the survey.
The Greens increase by 0.5 points to 16 percent, the FDP by one point to 10.5 percent.
There are losses at the AfD, which falls from eleven to ten percent.
The left would come to 5 percent and would have to worry about moving into the Bundestag.
For the representative survey, 1554 people were interviewed orally and personally between September 16 and 23.
Survey on the 2021 federal election: which party would Germans vote for?
Bundestag election 2021 |
SPD |
union |
Green |
FDP |
AfD |
left |
Others |
Allensbach, September 24th, 2021 |
26 |
25th |
16 |
10.5 |
10 |
5 |
7.5 |
Research group elections 23.09.2021 |
25th |
23 |
16.5 |
11 |
10 |
6th |
8.5 |
YouGov 09/23/2021 |
25th |
21 |
14th |
11 |
12th |
7th |
9 |
Forsa 09/21/2021 |
25th |
22nd |
17th |
11 |
11 |
6th |
8th |
Insa 09/20/2021 |
25th |
22nd |
15th |
11 |
11 |
6th |
9 |
Research group elections 17.09.2021 |
25th |
22nd |
16 |
11 |
11 |
6th |
9 |
Infratest dimap 16.09.2021 |
26 |
22nd |
15th |
11 |
11 |
6th |
9 |
Emnid 09/16/2021 |
26 |
20th |
17th |
11 |
12th |
6th |
8th |
YouGov 09/16/2021 |
25th |
20th |
15th |
10 |
11 |
8th |
11 |
Civey 09/15/2021 |
25th |
23 |
17th |
12th |
10 |
6th |
7th |
Forsa 09/14/2021 |
25th |
21 |
17th |
11 |
11 |
6th |
9 |
Allensbach September 8th, 2021 |
27 |
25th |
15.5 |
9.5 |
11 |
6th |
6th |
Survey on the 2021 federal election: SPD just ahead of the Union
Update from 09/24/2021, 6.15 a.m.:
The SPD's lead over the Union decreased slightly in the new ZDF * political barometer.
In the poll by the Wahlen research group, the CDU / CSU came in at 23 percent - one percentage point more than in the previous week.
The SPD remains unchanged at 25 percent.
The Greens would therefore come to 16.5 percent (plus 0.5).
In the survey, the AfD is currently 10 percent (minus 1), the FDP 11, the Left 6 percent (both unchanged).
Update from 09/23/2021, 10:00 a.m.:
In the current Sunday question from the polling institute YouGov *, the SPD and its candidate for Chancellor Olaf Scholz remain at the top with 25 percent of the votes. The CDU / CSU union with its candidate Armin Laschet receives 21 percent of the vote. After all, the Union was able to reduce the gap by one point compared to the previous week.
Update from 09/22/2021, 1:15 p.m.:
A current poll on the 2021 federal election sees the SPD and Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz at the forefront *.
On behalf of RTL Germany, the opinion research institute Forsa asked 1001 people between September 17 and 20, which party would receive the most votes on election day and who would lead the next federal government as chancellor.
The result is overwhelming; the competition is far behind.
Survey on the federal election 2021: SPD before Union and Greens
First report from 09/21/2021:
Frankfurt / Berlin - a federal election has not been that close for a long time. A tendency has been evident for some time: The SPD is ahead of the Union and the Greens *. A few days before the election, it seems, the CDU / CSU are making up some ground again after a downturn in August, as the result of the Forsa survey from 09/21/2021 shows. In the RTL / NTV trend barometer, the SPD * is three percentage points ahead of the Union.
It looks different in the "K question".
If Germany could elect the Federal Chancellor directly, SPD candidate Olaf Scholz would in all likelihood clearly prevail.
According to the ZDF * political barometer of September 17, 2021, 48 percent of those surveyed would like him to be head of government if they had the choice.
Far behind in second place follows Armin Laschet with 22, followed by Green Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock * with 15 percent.
In surveys, the SPD is currently at a value of 25 percent, the CDU / CSU union is between 20 and 22 percent.
The Greens are between 15 and 16 percent.
It currently looks even more stable with the FDP, AfD * and Left,
Survey on the 2021 federal election: SPD before Union - which coalitions are possible?
With regard to the formation of a government after the federal election, the question of possible coalitions * of the parties also arises. The only mathematically possible two-party alliance would be a new edition of the grand coalition of the SPD and the Union, this time with the CDU / CSU as a junior partner. The so-called traffic light from SPD, FDP * and Greens would be possible and would mean that the Union would have to go back into the opposition for the first time in 16 years. However, a “Jamaica alliance” consisting of the CDU / CSU, the Greens and the FDP is also conceivable.
A majority would also have a “Germany coalition” made up of the Union, SPD and FDP and a red-green-red alliance made up of the SPD, the Greens and the Left *.
However, according to the representative Allensbach survey between September 1 and 7, 2021, almost 40 percent of those eligible to vote * are undecided who they will support next Sunday (September 26, 2021).
According to this, 63 percent of those questioned find that the top candidates of the parties are all unconvincing.
Survey on the 2021 federal election: Who do the voters want as Federal Chancellor?
Bundestag election 2021 |
Olaf Scholz (SPD) |
Armin Laschet (CDU) |
Annalena Baerbock (Greens) |
ZDF Politbarometer 17.09.2021 |
48 |
22nd |
15th |
ZDF Politbarometer 09/10/2021 |
48 |
21 |
16 |
ZDF Politbarometer September 3rd, 2021 |
53 |
18th |
14th |
Source: Elections Research Group |
Survey on the Federal Parliament election 2021: Who is suitable as a Federal Chancellor?
Bundestag election 2021 |
Olaf Scholz (SPD) |
Armin Laschet (CDU) |
Annalena Baerbock (Greens) |
ZDF Politbarometer 17.09.2021 |
67 |
29 |
26 |
ZDF Politbarometer 09/10/2021 |
68 |
29 |
24 |
ZDF Politbarometer September 3rd, 2021 |
70 |
25th |
23 |
Source: Elections Research Group |
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