Who will win the federal election in 2021?
The projections and forecasts on the evening of the election: In this news ticker you can read the latest figures.
The polling stations in Germany were open until 6 p.m., as long as around 60 million citizens were called to cast their votes.
Here you will find the current projections and results on the evening of the election.
This news ticker is continuously updated.
Scholz or Laschet?
You can find the latest forecasts and initial results in our policy newsletter.
Bundestag election results: the numbers at a glance (in percent)
Extrapolation |
time |
CDU / CSU |
SPD |
Green |
FDP |
AfD |
left |
Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infratest dimap / ARD |
9:52 p.m. |
24.2 |
25.8 |
14.3 |
11.5 |
10.6 |
5.0 |
8.6 |
Research group elections / ZDF |
9.47 p.m. |
24.5 |
26.0 |
13.9 |
11.7 |
10.5 |
5.0 |
8.4 |
Update from September 26th, 9:18 pm:
It remains close between the Union and the SPD.
According to current projections, the two parties are separated by just under one percentage point in the 2021 federal election.
The Greens are in third place (around 14 percent), ahead of the FDP (around 11.5 percent) and the AfD (10.5 percent).
The left is currently at 5.0 percent.
Update from September 26, 8:13 p.m.:
Infratest dimap (ARD) and the Wahlen research group published new projections around 8 p.m. (all figures in percent).
ARD extrapolation from 7:59 p.m .: CDU / CSU (24.5), SPD (25.5), Greens (13.8), FDP (11.7), AfD (10.9), Left (5.0)
ZDF extrapolation from 8:13 p.m .: CDU / CSU (24.5), SPD (25.9), Greens (14.1), FDP (11.7), AfD (10.6), Left (5.0)
Bundestag election extrapolation confirms forecast: Laschet and Scholz almost on par
Update from September 26th, 7.40 p.m.:
With the latest ARD extrapolation from 19.35 p.m., the Union comes to 24.6 percent, the SPD to 25.2 percent, the Greens to 14.3 percent, the FDP to 11.6 percent , the AfD to 10.8 percent and the left to 5.0 percent.
Update from September 26, 7:20 p.m.:
The ARD extrapolation from 7:14 p.m. still shows a head-to-head race between the CDU / CSU (24.7 percent) and the SPD (24.9 percent).
In the other places follow the Greens (14.6 percent), the FDP (11.7 percent), the AfD (11.1 percent) and the Left (5.0 percent).
Update from September 26, 6.45 p.m.:
The next projections for the federal election are available.
Here are the current numbers from Infratest dimap (ARD): CDU / CSU (24.7 percent), SPD (24.9 percent), Greens (14.8 percent), FDP (11.2 percent), AfD (11.3 percent) Percent), left (5.0 percent).
The ZDF projection of 6.45 p.m. sees the SPD (25.8 percent) just ahead of the CDU / CSU (24.2 percent).
In third place is Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen with 14.8 percent, ahead of the FDP (11.8 percent), the AfD (10.1 percent) and the Left (5.0 percent).
Bundestag election forecast: Laschet's CDU and Scholz-SPD on par
Update from September 26, 6:02 p.m.:
The first forecast for the federal election in 2021 is there.
The numbers from Infratest dimap (ARD): CDU / CSU (25 percent), SPD (25 percent), Greens (15 percent), FDP (11 percent), AfD (11 percent), Left (5 percent).
The forecast of the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF) sees the SPD with 26 percent ahead of the Union with 24 percent.
In the other places follow the Greens (14.5 percent), the FDP (12 percent), the AfD (10 percent) and the Left (5 percent).
Update from September 26th, 5:50 p.m.:
The tension rises.
In a few minutes you will find the numbers of the first forecast for the federal election in 2021. Who will be the strongest force in Germany?
More information soon.
Update from September 26, 5:01 p.m.:
At 6 p.m., the forecast for the 2021 federal election will be published.
But already now, Free Voters boss Hubert Aiwanger is causing an uproar.
The Bavarian Minister of Economic Affairs improperly distributed the first forecast figures on Twitter.
Update from September 26, 4:58 p.m.:
The polling stations in Germany are still open for around an hour.
Then the first federal election forecast is expected.
According to the Federal Returning Officer, the turnout until 2 p.m. was 36.5 percent.
In 2017, the turnout in the polling stations until 2 p.m. was 41.1 percent.
However, the votes of postal voters - this year probably more than ever before - are not taken into account in these statistics.
Update from September 26, 12:51 p.m.:
Polls are snapshots - this is always emphasized when new numbers are published before the election. On this Sunday the time has come, more precise values will be published. A preliminary official final result is not expected until after midnight, but from 6 p.m. onwards, opinion research institutes keep delivering new figures. Will there be a neck-and-neck race between the Union and the SPD that evening? Are the Greens further ahead than last thought? You can read the latest figures and information about the 2021 federal election in our live ticker on election evening.
Update from September 26, 10:50 a.m.:
At 6 p.m. Germany looks at the monitors on which the first forecasts for the federal election will appear.
The projections then follow one by one.
Until then, citizens are still called upon to cast their votes at the polling station.
A postal ballot record had already been set.
Federal election 2021 currently: What do the first projections and forecasts say?
Overview of numbers
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Olaf Scholz (SPD) or Armin Laschet (CDU): Who will be the new Federal Chancellor?
The projections and forecasts provide the first answers.
© Maurizio Gambarini / Britta Pedersen / Kay Nietfeld / dpa (assembly)
First report from September 26th:
Berlin - Who will be Germany's next head of government?
Which coalitions are possible?
These questions will be clarified with the first forecasts and projections for the federal election.
The numerous polls published previously gave an initial picture of the mood.
(Scholz or Laschet? You can get the latest forecasts and first results in our politics newsletter.)
Bundestag election: polls see the SPD as the winner - how accurate are the surveys?
Before the general election
(all information in our news ticker)
, new polls were published almost every day. The polling institutes rely on surveys of eligible voters, usually by telephone. The best-known survey is the so-called Sunday question: “Which party would you vote if there were general elections on Sunday?” The statistical deviation of the results is usually 2.5 percent. But: surveys always correspond to a snapshot at the time of the survey. Polls can change accordingly - something that has already been observed several times during this election campaign.
According to the last polls before the general election, the SPD was in the lead with 25 to 27 percent.
The CDU / CSU was able to stabilize slightly after a survey low and was just before the federal election at 21 to 22 percent.
The Greens, who were meanwhile traded as the strongest force in the spring, came to 15 to 18 percent.
The FDP and AfD followed in the places behind and were almost on par with the polls at 10 to 13 percent.
The left meanwhile reached 6 to 7 percent.
Bundestag election: The results of 2017
CDU / CSU |
SPD |
AfD |
FDP |
left |
Green |
Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
32.9% |
20.5% |
12.6% |
10.7% |
9.2% |
8.9% |
5.0% |
Federal election 2021: forecasts and projections - that's the difference
Forecasts using so-called exit polls are more accurate than surveys. With the exit polls, voters are asked anonymously when they leave the premises who they have voted for. This time, the 6 p.m. forecasts could show a slightly larger difference to the final result than usual due to the high proportion of postal voters. Matthias Jung, board member of the Wahlen research group, told the German Press Agency: "This increases the likelihood that the errors in the 6 pm forecast will be a little larger." However, the errors should "statistically not lead to a catastrophic result" he emphasizes. In the 6 p.m. forecasts of previous years, there was a deviation of one to two percentage points compared to the official final result. "That is quite normal," emphasizes Jung.
Projections give an even more reliable picture of the mood.
In contrast to the forecasts, they work with real results.
The projections are continuously updated on election day and are therefore gradually more accurate.
The final result of the federal election is expected early Monday morning.
In the previous election, the Federal Returning Officer published the result around 5:30 a.m. the day after the election.
Until then, we will keep you up to date on all forecasts and projections relating to the federal election in 2021 in this news ticker.
On
Merkur.de you
get all information about the federal election 2021. In addition, we provide you with all important data and figures on our interactive map with all results for constituencies and municipalities.
(as / sk)
List of rubric lists: © Marius Becker / dpa