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Scholz, Laschet
Photo:
HANNIBAL HANSCHKE;
INA FASSBENDER / AFP
What an election evening: The SPD clearly wins with its chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz, celebrating a resurrection.
The Union, on the other hand, suffers a crushing defeat with Armin Laschet and has the worst result in its history.
And yet, shortly after the polls closed, the crucial questions remain unanswered: Who will become Federal Chancellor?
And with what alliance will he rule the country in the future?
1.
The SPD is back, Olaf Scholz can become Chancellor - if he negotiates well
Olaf Scholz is the surprise of this choice.
A few months ago, social democracy was still around 15 percent in the polls.
And now?
The SPD is currently very thinly ahead of the Union in the projections and can definitely record strong gains compared to the election four years ago - from this it derives the claim to the Chancellery.
But whether Scholz will also be Chancellor is completely open.
The outcome of this evening will only decide to a limited extent on this; the negotiating skills of the candidate are more decisive.
What does he offer FDP leader Christian Lindner in a traffic light coalition?
As of now, Scholz has - in addition to a theoretically possible grand coalition - only the traffic light option.
Red-green-red probably doesn't work arithmetically, so the left alliance is no longer a possible, threatening alternative scenario to push Lindner into a coalition.
2. Laschet loses historically - and is still not out of the running
One thing is certain: it is an unparalleled debacle for the Union.
The CDU and CSU have never done so badly in a federal election.
Compared to the last election four years ago and the already weak result, they lose another eight to nine percentage points.
This is largely the debacle of Armin Laschet, who failed to prove his suitability for chancellor for a long time during the election campaign.
And yet Laschet and the Union parties are not out of the running to form a government - initial projections see the Union only just behind the SPD, the ARD even considers a majority of the Union's seats in the Bundestag to be conceivable because of the overhang mandates. Either way: mathematically, a Jamaica coalition of the Union, Greens and FDP would be possible.
From first place, Laschet could of course derive an order to form a government.
But what happens when the Union becomes the second largest force?
At his first appearance, the candidate for chancellor stated that he would do everything possible to form a conservatively led government.
And he already used the opportunity to woo the Greens and the FDP.
Signals are also coming from the CSU that support Laschet's claim to power - despite openly expressed doubts before the election in the event that the Union ends up behind the SPD.
However, it remains to be seen whether Laschet, as a dramatic loser in the election and runner-up, has the authority to explore a Union-led government with potential partners.
At least the Greens made it clear before the election that they would prefer to form a coalition with the SPD.
And even in Laschet's own ranks, the dynamic is still difficult to predict.
If the distance to the SPD grows in the course of the evening, Laschet's chances will also disappear.
Then the career of the CDU chairman could soon be over.
3. The FDP and the Greens are the chancellor makers
The Greens and the FDP are together in a central position of power, just as the FDP had alone for many years in the old Federal Republic: They are the Chancellor-makers.
The neo-bourgeois green and yellow center decides whether the Union or the SPD rule.
Both Scholz and Laschet have made their claim to the Chancellery.
Both will now ensnare the green and yellow partners.
Is the way to the traffic light longer for the FDP than that for the Greens to Jamaica?
Or the other way around?
In the respective supporters, the preferences are crystal clear: the Green sympathizers reject Jamaica with a large majority, the FDP supporters with a not so large majority the traffic light.
In the run-up to the election, Lindner pointed out again and again that a runner-up could also be made Chancellor, meaning Laschet in the event of an emergency.
For the Greens, on the other hand, it would be correspondingly more difficult to hoist the now possibly second-placed Union candidate into the Chancellery.
If Scholz's head start remains as thin as a hand, it could help him argumentatively.
4. The Greens fail because of their own claims
The Greens win significantly compared to 2017 - and yet the result feels like a defeat.
The party started to conquer the Chancellery with Annalena Baerbock.
In the early summer, the polls did indeed temporarily lead the way, but then the crash followed.
The government headquarters was soon out of reach.
Participation in the government is now likely to remain a consolation: it will probably not work without the Greens, assuming that a new edition of the grand coalition is not up for debate.
In a traffic light with the SPD and FDP or in a Jamaican coalition with the Union and FDP - the Greens will soon be the vice-chancellor and have a significant say in the country's politics.
5. The left is fighting for its right to exist
The left trembles - the party is at five percent in the first projections.
It is a bitter disappointment for a party that presented itself as ready to govern during the election campaign.
Now it is not even enough arithmetically for a red-green-red government.
And the left may even slip under the five percent hurdle.
To be on the safe side, the party must now hope to win at least three constituencies as usual.
Then the so-called basic mandate clause applies, and the left could move into parliament according to their second vote result even if it is below five percent.
6. The AfD is an Eastern party
The AfD is doing a little weaker than four years ago.
At that time the party got 12.6 percent, now it is 10 to 11 - which is still remarkable for an internally torn, in parts right-wing extremist party.
Even in the election campaign, the AfD hardly played a role, and it could not benefit from the corona crisis.
The strongholds of the AfD can be clearly located: They are in the east.