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Bundestag election: extrapolation for Bavaria here! Söder indicates the first consequences after the CSU debacle

2021-09-29T10:40:05.091Z


In our ticker you can follow the federal election 2021 in Bavaria live on election day. With all the news about the voting and all the results.


In our ticker you can follow the federal election 2021 in Bavaria live on election day.

With all the news about the voting and all the results.

  • On September 26th * the Bavarians elect their share of the members of the Bundestag.

    According to an initial extrapolation, the CSU around Markus Söder has to accept significant losses.

    The CSU boss already indicated consequences (update from 7:05 p.m.).

  • Hubert Aiwanger published secret numbers in advance and caused a scandal (see update from 4:35 p.m.).

    All news and results of the federal election 2021 * in Bavaria can be found at Merkur.de/bayern.

  • By the way: Our Bavaria newsletter informs you about all developments and results from the Free State about the federal election - and of course about all other important stories from Bavaria.

Update from 11:17 p.m

.: The preliminary results for Munich: In the second votes, the Greens are the strongest force, followed by the CSU and SPD.

Three of the four direct mandates go to the CSU.

In the south, Jamila Schäfer gives the Greens their first direct mandate in Bavaria.

Update from 10.45 p.m.:

The former Federal Minister of Transport Peter Ramsauer defended his direct mandate in his Upper Bavarian constituency of Traunstein, but had to accept a double-digit slump.

After counting all areas, he got 36.6 percent of the first votes, 13.7 percentage points less than in 2017. At that time, he got 50.3 percent.

In the case of the second votes, the Christian Socialists lost a similar amount from 44.6 to 31.5 percent.

Bundestag election: Söder comments on the CSU result - and criticizes Aiwanger twice

In general, the CSU in Bavaria had to accept losses. Party leader Markus Söder has already commented on this (see update from 9:53 p.m.).

Söder also used

a

BR

interview to criticize free voter boss Hubert Aiwanger twice. On the one hand, the Bavarian Prime Minister criticized his deputy because he had distributed numbers from a post-election survey by the Elections Research Group on Twitter while the vote was still in progress - together with the call for the “last votes” to be given to free voters. The tweet was deleted after a short time.



“That doesn't work at all,” says Söder.

“You have to talk again about how things are going to continue.” He also called for Aiwanger to “return to practical work” and again a style that would do justice to the government offices that you have.

The government work in Bavaria suffered from the Bundestag election campaign ideas of the Free Voters, criticized Söder.

“That has to come to an end now.”



In addition, the CSU boss made the Free Voters jointly responsible for the possibly difficult formation of a government: “If the Free Voters had not run as they did, there would already have been a clear majority in favor of a bourgeoisie Alliance given, ”he said.

"Unfortunately, this delay is now on the account of the Free Voters."

Federal election 2021: will Jamila Schäfer (Greens) take the direct mandate?

Update from 10:33 p.m.:

Only a few districts are missing - then it is

clear

which candidates from Munich will move directly to the Bundestag.

918 out of 926 districts have already been counted.

The CSU can assert itself in the north, west and east.

Only the south could go to the Greens. * That would make Jamila Schäfer the party's first direct candidate in the state capital.

With 27.4 percent, she is ahead of her competitor, Michael Kuffer, from the CSU.

New extrapolation for Bavaria: CSU at 32.5 percent - AfD loses

Update from 9:57 p.m.:

New figures for Bavaria:

According to the

latest extrapolation (Infratest-dimap figures from

Bavarian Broadcasting)

, the CSU is 32.5 percent, the SPD is 17.5 percent.

The Greens are 13.9 percent, the FDP 10.8 percent.

Compared to the last extrapolation, the AfD is no longer in double digits and comes to 9.4 percent.

The free voters reach 6.9 percent, the left 2.8.

CSU

SPD

Green

FDP

AfD

Free voters

left

Other

Extrapolation

32.5

17.5

13.9

10.8

9.4

6.9

2.8

6.2

CSU gets a bad result in the federal election: Söder expresses himself - swipe at free voters

Update from 9:53 p.m.:

According to initial projections, the CSU has the worst result in a federal election since 1949. What was the problem? "We have not been able to completely decouple ourselves from the national trend," said Markus Söder in the

BR

with a view to the CDU. In terms of direct mandates, however, Bavaria has won almost everything again. In the Free State it was over 30 percent and nationally over 5, which is good. In the small analysis, however, you can see that there is a lot of catching up to do with boys and women.

"I would like to work it up," said Söder and would also like to talk to the base about it.

The many on-site discussions would be missing due to the corona.

Had you had your own candidate, you would probably have had a "home bonus".

However, this should not be seen as a criticism of Armin Laschet.

That is "yesterday's news."

But would it have gone better with the CSU boss as a candidate for chancellor?

"It's all like 'what if-questions that nobody knows'", said Söder.

"It doesn't hurt me. That thing has been ticked off for so long," he said, looking at the missed candidate for chancellor.

He thinks that Laschet was treated unfairly during the election campaign.


Bundestag election: Söder with a swipe against Aiwanger's free voters

Söder

could not resist

commenting on the free voters in the

BR

interview. Alice Weidel had just said earlier that the AfD had competed with the Free Voters, that was remarkable. Corinna Miazga, state chairwoman of the AfD in Bavaria, admitted that the AfD had not achieved its goal of becoming stronger. One factor: Hubert Aiwanger occupied the important AfD topic Corona and "presented himself as a vaccine skeptic." According to initial findings, this cost around six percent of the clientele in Bavaria who this time voted for the Free Voters "and threw their votes in the trash can". But the Union's campaign to warn against red-red-green also cost voters. Some have turned to the Union to prevent this constellation.

Bundestag election: Scheuer wins direct mandate - but has to accept heavy losses

In the constituency of Passau, all 271 electoral districts have now been counted and according to the results, the CSU is still at the top with 32.50 percent.

This is followed by the SPD (17.56 percent), the Free Voters (12.11 percent) and the AfD (11.78 percent).

Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer won the direct mandate again (30.65 percent), but suffered a hefty loss of around 16 percent compared to 2017. 

Federal election 2021 in Bavaria - Söder becomes clear: "We don't like the result"

Update from 8.45 p.m .:

“Yes, our result is not sufficient”, Söder admitted on Sunday evening in the “Berlin Round” of ARD and ZDF. That is partly due to the free voters, who have become stronger. “We don't like the result,” but the pace has been accelerated in the past few weeks. “We always share responsibility,” he said in general, referring to the accountability of election results.

In the preliminary results of the federal election, the CSU leader sees a vote of no confidence in the SPD candidate for Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Because: A possible coalition of the SPD, the Left and the Greens got "a smack". "The Germans do not want red-red-green." This is indirectly a mistrust of Scholz because he favored this idea, so Söder.



It does not need an alliance of yesterday, but an idea of ​​how Germany can remain stable and how it can be renewed. "I believe that we can document this claim well with Armin Laschet, perhaps with the FDP and with the Greens, because I believe that there is the greatest desire for change."



When asked whether the Union would have done better with him as candidate for Chancellor, Söder said: “That is really yesterday's news.” The Union had made a great final spurt.

“I have a lot of respect for Armin Laschet.” A lot of injustice was done to him in the election campaign.

Also from Söder?

"What one has already noticed as a voter is that Markus Söder has been teasing for a long time like a Chinese acupuncturist that one of the Armins Laschet could already poke and puncture him." That said Munich's former mayor Christian Ude (SPD) on

Bavarian television.

Bundestag election: next extrapolation for Bavaria there - CSU loses compared to 2017

Update from 7.40 p.m.:

New extrapolation for Bavaria: According to Infratest dimap numbers from

Bavarian Broadcasting

(as of 7:34 p.m.), the CSU comes to 32.5 percent, the SPD follows with 17 percent.

The Greens reach 13.7 percent.

The FDP is 10.7, the AfD 10.5.

The Free Voters around Hubert Aiwanger reach 6.3 percent, the Left got 2.7.

CSU

SPD

Green

FDP

AfD

Free voters

left

Other

Extrapolation

32.5

17.0

13.7

10.7

10.5

6.3

2.7

6.6

Despite the poor CSU result in Bavaria, the party still wins most of the 46 direct mandates in the Free State.

At least in the district of Ebersberg-Erding, this seems to be the case. * According to initial projections, Andreas Lenz wins the mandate here again with just over 41 percent of the first votes.

Likewise Alexander Dobrindt, who entered the race as a direct candidate for the constituency in Weilheim-Schongau / Garmisch-Partenkirchen *.

He also cracks the 40 percent mark in both districts *.

Bundestag election: Transport Minister Scheuer expresses himself and expresses criticism

Update from 7:31 p.m.:

Andreas Scheuer (CSU) has meanwhile also commented.

He might have wished for better numbers for his birthday,

but was calm

in the

BR

: “The results are in the normal trend.” In his own constituency, however, there would have been many votes for the AfD, the Minister of Transport got that.

One would have seen an election campaign “all against one”, said Scheuer.

Some would have made it fair, others not, one criticism.

The Minister of Transport also spoke about himself: "I had three and a half years of brutally tough years and was also tackled quite roughly by the opposition."

Federal election 2021: extrapolation for Bavaria here!

Debacle for Söders CSU

Update from 7:05 p.m.:

Now the first extrapolation for the Free State is there.

According to Infratest-dimap figures from

Bayerischer Rundfunk

, the CSU comes to 32.8 percent (minus six percent compared to 2017).

The SPD reached 16.5, the Greens 13.7.

It is followed by the AfD with 10.9 and the FDP with 10.7.

The free voters reach 6.1 percent, the left comes to 2.7.

CSU

SPD

Green

AfD

FDP

Free voters

left

Other

Extrapolation

32.8

16.5

13.7

10.9

10.7

6.1

2.7

6.6

In the meantime, Markus Söder has also reacted and indicated possible consequences: “Everyone has to get out of their comfort zone.

It has to be an alliance of common sense, ”he said, referring to the federal government.

One is ready for talks, he said in his first statement - with the aim of “defining the leadership mandate for the Union”.

It is his wish that Laschet becomes chancellor.

He also addressed the CSU result in Bavaria: “We don't like our result in Bavaria, on the contrary.” But it is above the national average.

It was also important to be over 30 percent in Bavaria and over 5 nationwide.

Bundestag election: CSU may have the worst result since 1949

Update from 6.43 p.m.:

Alexander Dobrindt, top candidate of the CSU, has

spoken

in the

BR

. "It is the expected close result," he said of the first prognosis for the federal election in Germany. "We will see what opportunities arise from this now." When asked about the severe losses for the Union, he admitted: "The result is one that you do not want. It is a result that could and should be stronger". However, they have shown in Bavaria that they are well above the Union as a whole. You probably got the strongest result of a Union party in one of the federal states. A swipe at the CDU led by Laschet?

In the ARD, a convinced CSU voter had declared even before the first forecast that he was clearly in favor of the CSU in Bavaria. This election is about Germany. And in Germany Laschet is the candidate “and I just can't make friends with this man.” So is Laschet possibly a reason for the CSU's losses in Bavaria? After all, Markus Söder's party fell from 38.8 percent in the 2017 election to - according to initial forecasts - 32.5 percent in the current federal election.

"As far as the CSU result is concerned, these are of course numbers that cannot be satisfactory in absolute terms," ​​said CSU General Secretary Markus Blume in the

BR

.

Only in the first federal election in 1949 did the party fare worse. However, Blume emphasized that some surveys had been “taught better” beforehand.

A left slide in Germany did not take place "to this extent".

Federal election 2021: forecast for Bavaria here!

Debacle for Söders CSU - it's getting tight behind it

Update from 6:12 p.m.:

According to an initial forecast, Prime Minister Söder's CSU has to accept significant losses.

According to the first Infratest dimap figures from

Bavarian Broadcasting

, the CSU only lands at 33 percent.

That would be the worst result in a federal election since 1949 - at that time the worst result in history was achieved with 29.2 percent.

In 2017, the CSU - after falling by more than ten percentage points - came to 38.8 percent.

First prognosis for the federal election: SPD comes to 16.5 percent in Bavaria, the Greens to 14 percent

According to the

BR

forecast, the

SPD can

count on 16.5 percent in Bavaria, the Greens land at 14 percent.

According to the forecast, the FDP will reach 11 percent, the AfD will reach 10 percent.

According to the figures from 6 p.m., the free voters can count on 6 percent, the left with 3 percent.

In the Free State, around 9.4 million eligible voters were called to vote for the new German Bundestag.

Many of them had already cast their vote in advance by postal voting - according to

BR

figures, postal votes were around 62 percent.

Bundestag election: CSU must fear loss of direct mandates

For the first time in years, the CSU has to fear the loss of direct mandates: In Munich and Nuremberg in particular, the SPD and the Greens are hoping to steal one or more of the 46 constituencies in the Free State from the CSU.

The last time the CSU was able to win all direct mandates in Bavaria was in the 2005 Bundestag election - at that time the constituency of Munich-North had gone to the SPD.


The results of 2017 for comparison: The SPD had reached 15.3 percent in Bavaria at the time.

The Greens got 9.8 percent, the FDP 10.2 percent, the AfD 12.4 percent, the Left 6.1 percent, and the Free Voters got 2.7 percent.

Federal election 2021: forecast for Bavaria here!

Söders CSU threatens debacle - Aiwanger causes scandal

Update from 6 p.m.:

The polling stations in Bavaria are closed.

In an initial forecast, the CSU of party leader Söder comes to 33 percent, the SPD to 16.5.

The Greens are at 14 percent, the FDP at 11, the AfD at 10. The free voters of party leader Hubert Aiwanger therefore come to 6 percent.

For the CSU it is the second worst result.

In 1949 the party reached 29.2 percent.

In the federal election four years ago, the party still got 38.8 percent.

CSU

SPD

The green

FDP

AfD

left

Free voters

forecast

33

16.5

14th

11

10

3

6th

Other parties come to seven percent.

Update from 5.45 p.m.:

The polling stations close at 6 p.m.

The first projections are then hoped for shortly afterwards.

Update from 5:19 p.m.:

At the CSU election party there is Prosecco Aperol and Paulaner.

And very tense faces, as is transmitted from there.

A result in the federal government behind the SPD and in Bavaria under 30 would be a disaster - also for the CSU.

Behind the scenes, CSU boss Markus Söder in Berlin and his general secretary Markus Blume in Munich are currently discussing the reactions after 6 p.m.

Federal election 2021 in Bavaria: Aiwanger causes scandal - "Incredible case of election manipulation"

Update from 4.35 p.m

.: Hubert Aiwanger called on the Bavarians on Twitter to vote for the Free Voters. To this end, he posted exit polls (Research Group Elections). With exit polls, people are asked about their votes on election day. The tweet has now been deleted. Christian Deutschländer, Head of Politics at

Münchner Merkur

, took a screenshot. The “iron” rule is that exit polls may only be published when the polling stations are closed. This is also recorded in the Federal Election Act. * We are talking about an administrative offense that can be punished with a fine of up to 50,000 euros.

Exciting: Hubert Aiwanger tweeted ExitPolls.

And quickly deleted because it is highly punishable.

Here, a little service, the screenshot.

(But now with blackened numbers.) Pic.twitter.com/g8V3AuinNp

- Christian Deutschländer (@CDeutschlaender) September 26, 2021

CSU general secretary Markus Blume attacked Aiwanger meanwhile and demanded consequences.

“Hubert Aiwanger distributes forecast results before 6 p.m. and connects them to an election call,” Blume wrote on Twitter and added: “An unbelievable case of election manipulation and voter influence.

That is deeply undemocratic and must have consequences! "

Bundestag elections are running: In Bavaria, there may be a higher turnout

Update from 3 p.m.:

Bavarians can still cast their vote for three hours in the general election.

This year there may be a higher turnout in the Free State.

In Munich, well over 60 percent had cast their vote by 1 p.m.

The percentage of postal voting is already included.

For comparison: in the last federal election in 2017, a similar value was only achieved between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m.

It looked similar in Würzburg.

The city's electoral office reported around 9 percent participation in the polling stations by 10 a.m. - in addition to 54 percent postal voters.

According to a spokesman, the participation was already well over 60 percent in the morning.

Bundestag election: Higher voter turnout in Nuremberg compared to the last election four years ago

In the Franconian metropolis of Nuremberg, 31 percent voted until 12 noon, according to a spokeswoman for the electoral office - two percentage points more than in 2017 at this time. In Nuremberg, the postal votes - unlike in Munich and Würzburg - are gradually "factored in," as the spokesman said.



The Regensburg polling stations reported a turnout of 12.6 percent by 12 noon, but including postal voters, it was already 62.6 percent. In Ingolstadt it was 18.6 percent at 10 a.m. - without postal voting, as a spokesman for the local electoral office emphasized.



In Augsburg it was 25.4 percent of the on-site voters until 12 noon - and thus less than in 2017. At that time, the turnout was 29.4 percent.

However, the proportion of postal voters - not yet included in the calculation - is also very high in Augsburg.

79,000 of the 187,000 eligible voters applied for postal voting there.

Bundestag election: is Söders CSU threatened with a negative record?

Apart from the nationwide election result, it is eagerly awaited in the Free State how the CSU will perform.

Surveys had recently seen the Christian Socialists below the 30 percent mark.

This threatens the CSU under party leader Markus Söder with a negative record.

The previous low was 29.2 percent in the 1949 election.

Bundestag election: Ex-Prime Minister Edmund Stoiber casts a vote

Update, 1:31 p.m.:

A good 40 kilometers south of Munich, Wolfratshausen's most prominent couple has now also elected: Dr. Edmund Stoiber and Mrs. Karin made their crosses in elementary school. A good-humored ex-prime minister chatted with the election officials and had himself interviewed for television before walking home with his wife.

Update, 11.47 a.m.: It is already clear

: In the federal election this year, Bavaria's largest cities will see a higher turnout.

In the state capital of Munich, almost 60 percent of the voters had already cast their vote by 11 a.m. on Sunday morning.

The proportion of postal voters in particular is particularly high in the state capital.

For comparison: A similar value was only reached in the last federal election in 2017 at around 2 p.m.

Bundestag election in Bavaria: high voter turnout - new record in Munich

According to a spokesman for the electoral office, 14.4 percent voted in Nuremberg by 11 a.m.

That is a good two percentage points more than on election Sunday 2017 at this time.

In the Franconian metropolis, the postal votes - unlike in Munich - are gradually "factored in", as the spokesman explained.

Update, 11.03 a.m.:

Prime Minister Markus Söder has already cast his vote for the federal election in his hometown of Nuremberg - at the side of his wife Karin Baumüller.

Bundestag election in Bavaria: Söder votes in Nuremberg - and expects a close result

He was not nervous about the outcome of the election, but a little tense, said the CSU boss at the polling station in the Mögeldorf district of Nuremberg. “There are nicer days,” he added. "There is no more difficult day than election day because you wait and wait and wait and hope to get some good signal," he said.



Söder has also revealed his further plans for Sunday: he will attend the birthday party of Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann (CSU) and then go to Berlin, he described his daily routine. "I hope that Armin Laschet gets the government contract." But it will be tight and therefore exciting.

Update, 9.24 a.m.:

In the Free State, around 9.4 million eligible voters are called to vote for the new German Bundestag today.

Every eligible voter has two votes.

The second vote decides on the composition of the Bundestag.

With the first vote, a direct candidate is elected in each of the 46 constituencies in the Free State.

Bundestag election in Bavaria: is CSU threatened with a new negative record under Söder?

Apart from the nationwide election result, it is eagerly awaited in the Free State how the CSU will perform in the end.

Surveys had recently seen the Christian Socialists below the 30 percent mark.

In concrete terms, this means that the CSU under party leader Söder is threatened with a new negative record.

It is also possible that the party will miss the 5 percent hurdle.

In order to make it into the Bundestag, a party across Germany needs at least 5 percent of the second vote.

If the CSU does not jump this hurdle, it can still make it into the Bundestag: To do this, it would have to win at least three direct mandates.

In this respect, this regulation also has a symbolic character to a certain extent.

By the way, the lowest level of the CSU so far was 29.2 percent in the 1949 election.

Bundestag election in Bavaria: Free voters hope to move into the Bundestag

Today, Sunday, the focus is also on the Free Voters with their chairman Hubert Aiwanger.

The party hopes to move into the Bundestag for the first time.

However, surveys had always seen them below the five percent hurdle in the past few weeks.

Nationwide - and also in the Free State - the Greens in particular can count on a hefty plus.

For the first time in years, the CSU must fear the loss of direct mandates: In Munich and Nuremberg in particular, the SPD and the Greens are hoping to steal one or more constituencies from the CSU.

Bundestag election in Bavaria: All results for the Free State on Merkur.de

Election Sunday, 8.54 a.m

.: Good morning!

Already voted?

No?

But then let's go.

We will accompany you through election day in the Free State today.

Original message:

München - Der Tag der Bundestagswahl* ist gekommen. Am 26. September wählen die Bürger die Abgeordneten des Deutschen Bundestages. Diese wiederum stimmen über den zukünftigen Bundeskanzler oder die zukünftige Bundeskanzlerin ab. Nach 16 Jahren an der Spitze tritt Angela Merkel* (CDU*) ab. Abgelöst wird sie entweder von Annalena Baerbock* (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen*), Olaf Scholz* (SPD*) oder Armin Laschet* (CDU).

Bundestagswahl 2021: Wahllokale schließen um 18 Uhr - Kurz darauf gibt es eine Prognose

Um 18 Uhr schließen am heutigen Sonntag die Wahllokale. Auf Merkur.de finden Sie dann eine erste deutschlandweite Prognose. Zeitgleich zählen freiwillige Wahlhelfer in jedem Wahlbüro die Stimmen. Zunächst werden die am Wahltag abgegebenen Stimmen gezählt, danach sind die der Briefwähler* an der Reihe. Lokale Ergebnisse gibt es auf Gemeindeebene und - sobald alle Gemeinden ausgezählt sind - auf Wahlkreisebene.

46 Wahlkreise liegen in Bayern, in welchen die jeweiligen Wahlberechtigten über eine Liste und einen Direktkandidaten abstimmen. Es wird demnach über 92 der regulär insgesamt 598 Bundestagsabgeordneten in Bayern entschieden. Dazu kommen die Überhangmandate.

Bundestagswahl: Söder warnt vor Rot-Rot-Grün - doch CSU mit schlechten Umfragewerten

Ministerpräsident und CSU-Chef Markus Söder* warb kräftig für seine Partei und warnte kurz vor der Wahl auf Twitter: „Rot-Rot-Grün würde für Millionen Menschen in Bayern eine Verschlechterung der Lebenssituation bedeuten.“ Doch die CSU wies zuletzt schlechte Umfragewerte auf. Kürzlich rutschte die Partei im Freistaat sogar unter die 30-Prozent-Marke, im Juli lag sie noch bei 35 Prozent. Es bleibt also spannend.

Bundestagswahl: Wie wählen die Bayern? Alle Ergebnisse auf Merkur.de

Apropos Zahlen und Fakten: Alle News zum Thema finden Sie auf unserer großen Bundestagswahl-Themenseite. Und wenn Sie keine Bayern-spezifische News mehr verpassen wollen, abonnieren Sie am besten unseren Bayern-Newsletter, mit allen wichtigen Themen des Tages von Ihrer Merkur.de-Bayernredaktion.

Bundestagswahl: Wie wählt Bayern? Ergebnisse für Oberbayern, Nürnberg, Regensburg, Passau und Augsburg

Am Wahltag selbst und in den Tagen danach (nicht alle Ergebnisse werden bereits am Sonntagabend verfügbar sein) finden Sie alle regionalen Wahlergebnisse der Bundestagswahl in unserem Daten-Tool (siehe oben). Außerdem informieren wir Sie in rund 15 regionalen News-Tickern aus fast allen Landkreisen in Oberbayern sowie aus Nürnberg*, Regensburg*, Passau* und Augsburg* über die Entwicklungen am Wahltag und am Tag danach.

Weitere Zahlen und Daten zur Bundestagswahl 2021 finden Sie in unserer großen Bundestagswahl-Daten-Übersicht für Deutschland. Eine exakte Aufschlüsselung für München mit seinen Stadtteilen finden Sie hier. (kam)*Merkur.de/bayern ist ein Angebot von IPPEN.MEDIA

(By the way: Our Nuremberg newsletter informs you about all developments and results from the Franconian metropolis around the federal election - and of course about all other important stories from Nuremberg.)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2021-09-29

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