Bundestag election: preliminary final result for Scholz and Laschet da - the numbers at a glance

Who will win the federal election in 2021?

The projections and forecasts: In this news ticker you can read the latest figures.

• The polling stations in Germany were open until 6 p.m. on September 26th, as long as around 60 million citizens were called to cast their votes.

• Here you will find the current projections and results.

• The preliminary result has been available since Monday morning

  (see update from September 27, 6.51 a.m.)

  .

• This news ticker is continuously updated.

• Scholz or Laschet?

  You can find the latest forecasts and initial results in our policy newsletter.

Update from September 27, 6:51 a.m

.: The SPD has won the federal election according to the preliminary final result.

The union of CDU and CSU follows closely in terms of the share of votes, so the Greens took third place.

The votes cast are distributed as follows:

SPD

: 25.7 percent

CDU / CSU

: 24.1 percent

Greens

: 14.8 percent

FDP

: 11.5 percent

AfD

: 10.3 percent

The left

: 4.9 percent

SSW

: 01, percent

Other

: 8.6 percent

The left missed the five percent hurdle.

But since she won three constituencies directly, the so-called basic mandate clause applies.

This means that she receives 39 mandates, which she is entitled to according to the second vote result.

The South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW) will also have a seat in the new Bundestag.

The next federal election projection is here!

Not good news for Laschet and Baerbock

Update from September 26, 11:50 p.m.:

According to projections, the SPD became the strongest force in the 2021 federal election (around 26 percent).

The CDU / CSU, on the other hand, fell to a record low (around 24 percent) after 16 years in office of Chancellor Angela Merkel.

With the best result in their history, the Greens were clearly the third strongest party (around 14 percent) - ahead of the FDP (11.5 percent), AfD (10.5 percent) and the Left (around 5 percent).

Bundestag election results: the numbers at a glance (in percent)

Extrapolation	time	CDU / CSU	SPD	Green	FDP	AfD	left	Others
Infratest dimap / ARD	11:36 p.m.	24.1	25.8	14.6	11.5	10.5	4.9	8.6
Research group elections / ZDF	11:34 p.m.	24.2	26.0	14.3	11.5	10.6	5.0	8.4

Update from September 26th, 10:30 p.m.:

The distance between the SPD and the Union is growing, even if only in small steps.

According to a projection by Infratest dimap (ARD), the social democrats come to 25.9 percent.

The CDU / CSU is behind with 24.1 percent.

The other numbers: Greens (14.7 percent), FDP (11.5 percent), AfD (10.4 percent), Left (5.0 percent).

Extrapolation for the federal election in 2021: just under one percentage point between the SPD and the Union

Update from September 26th, 9:18 pm:

It remains close between the Union and the SPD.

According to current projections, the two parties are separated by just under one percentage point in the 2021 federal election.

The Greens are in third place (around 14 percent), ahead of the FDP (around 11.5 percent) and the AfD (10.5 percent).

The left is currently at 5.0 percent.

Update from September 26, 8:13 p.m.:

Infratest dimap (ARD) and the Wahlen research group published new projections around 8 p.m. (all figures in percent).

• ARD extrapolation from 7:59 p.m .: CDU / CSU (24.5), SPD (25.5), Greens (13.8), FDP (11.7), AfD (10.9), Left (5.0)

• ZDF extrapolation from 8:13 p.m .: CDU / CSU (24.5), SPD (25.9), Greens (14.1), FDP (11.7), AfD (10.6), Left (5.0)

Bundestag election extrapolation confirms forecast: Laschet and Scholz almost on par

Update from September 26th, 7.40 p.m.:

With the latest ARD extrapolation from 19.35 p.m., the Union comes to 24.6 percent, the SPD to 25.2 percent, the Greens to 14.3 percent, the FDP to 11.6 percent , the AfD to 10.8 percent and the left to 5.0 percent.

Update from September 26, 7:20 p.m.:

The ARD extrapolation from 7:14 p.m. still shows a head-to-head race between the CDU / CSU (24.7 percent) and the SPD (24.9 percent).

In the other places follow the Greens (14.6 percent), the FDP (11.7 percent), the AfD (11.1 percent) and the Left (5.0 percent).

Update from September 26, 6.45 p.m.:

The next projections for the federal election are available.

Here are the current numbers from Infratest dimap (ARD): CDU / CSU (24.7 percent), SPD (24.9 percent), Greens (14.8 percent), FDP (11.2 percent), AfD (11.3 percent) Percent), left (5.0 percent).

The ZDF projection of 6.45 p.m. sees the SPD (25.8 percent) just ahead of the CDU / CSU (24.2 percent).

In third place is Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen with 14.8 percent, ahead of the FDP (11.8 percent), the AfD (10.1 percent) and the Left (5.0 percent).

Bundestag election forecast: Laschet's CDU and Scholz-SPD on par

Update from September 26, 6:02 p.m.:

The first forecast for the federal election in 2021 is there.

The numbers from Infratest dimap (ARD): CDU / CSU (25 percent), SPD (25 percent), Greens (15 percent), FDP (11 percent), AfD (11 percent), Left (5 percent).

The forecast of the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF) sees the SPD with 26 percent ahead of the Union with 24 percent.

In the other places follow the Greens (14.5 percent), the FDP (12 percent), the AfD (10 percent) and the Left (5 percent).

Update from September 26th, 5:50 p.m.:

The tension is increasing.

In a few minutes you will find the numbers of the first forecast for the federal election in 2021. Who will be the strongest force in Germany?

More information soon.

Update from September 26, 5:01 p.m.:

At 6 p.m., the forecast for the 2021 federal election will be published.

But already now, Free Voters boss Hubert Aiwanger is causing an uproar.

The Bavarian Minister of Economic Affairs improperly distributed the first forecast figures on Twitter.

Update from September 26, 4:58 p.m.:

The polling stations in Germany are still open for around an hour. Then the first federal election forecast is expected. According to the Federal Returning Officer, the turnout until 2 p.m. was 36.5 percent. In 2017, the turnout in the polling stations until 2 p.m. was 41.1 percent. However, the votes of postal voters - this year probably more than ever before - are not taken into account in these statistics.

Update from September 26, 12:51 p.m.:

Polls are snapshots - this is always emphasized when new numbers are published before the election. On this Sunday the time has come, more precise values ​​will be published. A preliminary official final result is not expected until after midnight, but from 6 p.m. onwards, opinion research institutes keep delivering new figures. Will there be a neck-and-neck race between the Union and the SPD that evening? Are the Greens further ahead than last thought? You can read the latest figures and information about the 2021 federal election in our live ticker on election evening.

Update from September 26, 10:50 a.m.:

At 6 p.m. Germany looks at the monitors on which the first forecasts for the federal election will appear.

The projections then follow one by one.

Until then, citizens are still called upon to cast their votes at the polling station.

A postal ballot record had already been set.

Federal election 2021 currently: What do the first projections and forecasts say?

Overview of numbers

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Olaf Scholz (SPD) or Armin Laschet (CDU): Who will be the new Federal Chancellor?

The projections and forecasts provide the first answers.

© Maurizio Gambarini / Britta Pedersen / Kay Nietfeld / dpa (assembly)

First report from September 26th:

Berlin - Who will be Germany's next head of government?

Which coalitions are possible?

These questions will be clarified with the first forecasts and projections for the federal election.

The numerous polls published previously gave an initial picture of the mood.

(Scholz or Laschet? You can get the latest forecasts and first results in our politics newsletter.)

Bundestag election: polls see the SPD as the winner - how accurate are the surveys?

Before the general election

(all information in our news ticker)

, new polls were published almost every day. The polling institutes rely on surveys of eligible voters, usually by telephone. The best-known survey is the so-called Sunday question: “Which party would you vote if there were general elections on Sunday?” The statistical deviation of the results is usually 2.5 percent. But: surveys always correspond to a snapshot at the time of the survey. Polls can change accordingly - something that has already been observed several times during this election campaign.

According to the last polls before the general election, the SPD was in the lead with 25 to 27 percent.

The CDU / CSU was able to stabilize slightly after a survey low and was just before the federal election at 21 to 22 percent.

The Greens, who were meanwhile traded as the strongest force in the spring, came to 15 to 18 percent.

The FDP and AfD followed in the places behind and were almost on par with the polls at 10 to 13 percent.

The left meanwhile reached 6 to 7 percent.

Bundestag election: The results of 2017

CDU / CSU	SPD	AfD	FDP	left	Green	Others
32.9%	20.5%	12.6%	10.7%	9.2%	8.9%	5.0%

Federal election 2021: forecasts and projections - that's the difference

Forecasts using so-called exit polls are more accurate than surveys. With the exit polls, voters are asked anonymously when they leave the premises who they have voted for. This time, the 6 p.m. forecasts could show a slightly larger difference to the final result than usual due to the high proportion of postal voters. Matthias Jung, board member of the Wahlen research group, told the German Press Agency: "This increases the likelihood that the errors in the 6:00 pm forecast will be somewhat greater." he emphasizes. In the 6 p.m. forecasts of previous years, there was a deviation of one to two percentage points compared to the official final result. "That is quite normal," emphasizes Jung.

Projections give an even more reliable picture of the mood.

In contrast to the forecasts, they work with real results.

The projections are continuously updated on election day and are therefore gradually more accurate.

The final result of the federal election is expected early Monday morning.

In the previous election, the Federal Returning Officer published the result around 5:30 a.m. the day after the election.

Until then, we will keep you up to date on all forecasts and projections relating to the federal election in 2021 in this news ticker.

On

Merkur.de you

get all information about the federal election 2021. In addition, we provide you with all important data and figures on our interactive map with all results for constituencies and municipalities.

(as / sk)

List of rubric lists: © Frank Hoermann / Imago