Germany voted.
But of all things, the surprise election winner Olaf Scholz could be left empty-handed in the evening - unexpected alliances are formed.
Berlin / Munich - For a long time the election evening left the most important questions unanswered. But after 8:15 p.m. the picture sharpened: The winner of the federal election should be the SPD - on Sunday the Germans downgraded the Union, which was so proud a few months ago, from the last People's Party to the second force. Political scientist Karl-Rudolf Korte spoke of a “historical constellation” on ZDF. It is only for the fourth time in the history of the Federal Republic that a politician has led the SPD to the role of the strongest force in the Bundestag. Olaf Scholz is now actually in a row with Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schröder.
The second insight: even a red-green-red government will not become a reality.
There is no majority in favor of the slide to the left, feared so severely by the Union and the FDP.
But beyond these two simple realizations, things get very, very complicated.
In the elephant round, both Scholz and Armin Laschet, who was marked by the election results, lay claim to the Chancellery.
And judging by all the signals from the FDP, the path to the office of head of government could be a very rocky one for Scholz.
It even seems possible that the liberals and the Greens will take the reins of action out of the hand of the election winner Scholz.
A break in tradition of the more interesting variety.
Bundestag election: Baerbock and Lindner forge plans - FDP and Greens as fate-makers for Scholz?
In the "Berlin Round" of ARD and ZDF, FDP leader Christian Lindner and Green Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock let it be known that they did not want to wait for initiatives from the two GroKo parties. It could be advisable that the parties that campaigned against the status quo of the grand coalition first talk to each other and structure the further procedure, explained Lindner - and literally ran open doors at Baerbock. It makes more than sense that different parties talk to each other in different combinations, she said. The logic "there is someone who calls everyone else" is not good for the necessary departure.
The search is on - this is also heard again and again on election evening, even from the lips of Laschet, "fresh wind" or even: a "departure". Unsurprisingly, Laschet recognized his only power option as a “coalition of the future”: Jamaica. CSU boss Markus Söder also called for "renewing Germany". Only Olaf Scholz stayed on the course of the eternal Chancellor on the evening of the election. He wanted “to get a good, pragmatic government for Germany through”.
Between the lines it seemed that a black, green, and yellow government might well move into the realm of possibility. Laschet and Lindner - already declared partners of choice for each other - flattered the Greens with the offer of a coalition in which every partner becomes "visible". The Greens themselves emphasized the need for a climate change much more than social policy measures - and when it comes to the climate, the SPD and the Union do not care too much. Baden-Württemberg's Green Prime Minister, Winfried Kretschmann, even declared that he did not see the traffic light as a more natural government option for his party. One now has to "negotiate well".
And then there was Söder, who approached the eco party in an astonishing tone.
"We are now partly a common generation, not so far apart," he said in the elephant round with a view of Baerbock, her co-boss Robert Habeck and Christian Lindner.
“You can really advance something there.
One could also advance a fundamental renewal for the country and not get stuck in the classic trenches again, so to speak. ”Habeck and Lindner had already recognized common ground a week ago when it came to the energy transition.
Bundestag election: Scholz soon to be electoral winner without office?
But Jamaica also harbors risks for the green
If there are more things in common, the FDP and the Greens could become the center of power in the negotiations through the back door.
The constellation is interesting: On the one hand, both Jamaica and a traffic light would represent quite broad sections of the population.
On the other hand, this very fact could lead to rather watery government programs.
If things go bad, the change could be reflected in the staff and party colors in particular.
And at the same time there is almost no alternative to the pact between the FDP and the Greens.
The SPD almost brusquely ruled out a GroKo on election evening.
“Not with this broken union!” Shouted General Secretary Lars Klingbeil at “Anne Will”.
At the same time, however, it is clear that the SPD has its back to the wall despite the election success.
She is on probation after the federal elections: According to a survey by Infratest dimap, 48 percent of the SPD voters would not have voted for the Social Democrats without the candidate for Chancellor Scholz.
The party now has one more chance to stop its decline with the government.
But failure could be close to a death blow.
Whereby this failure could probably also consist of a wax-soft government program in a traffic light coalition.
Bundestag election: All or nothing for Laschet, Söder under pressure - there is a lot in it for the Greens and the FDP
According to the same survey, Armin Laschet had no corresponding significance for the Union. In return, 71 percent of those questioned said they had chosen the Union to prevent a left-wing alliance - a rather timeless argument. The conservatives may therefore have to fear falling into the opposition rather than the final fall into the second row of the Bundestag parties.
The situation is all the more serious for Laschet himself. In the evening he tried not to let any doubt arise about his leading role in the coalition negotiations. But he did not want to lay claim to the office of parliamentary group leader. The loss of the Chancellery could mean the end for him. And CSU boss Markus Söder is also under pressure. 2023 will be elected in Bavaria - then the CSU will want to present itself as the ruling party in Berlin and not as the smallest opposition party.
So for Laschet it's also about everything, for Söder about a lot.
The best conditions for the FDP and the Greens to get the most out of the negotiations.
If the two so unequal parties agree on the content themselves.
Political Germany is facing turbulent weeks.
By the way, voters have a clear preference: According to Infratest dimap, 50 percent of voters want an SPD-led government.
Only 29 percent want Laschet and the Union in the Chancellery.
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