Scholz returns the smile to the Social Democracy: "The CDU must go to the opposition"

It has been a long time since the Willy Brandt house, headquarters of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), had not lived such a happy day.

A man and two women, each holding a bouquet of flowers, were the picture of victory on Monday morning.

Olaf Scholz, winner by the minimum in the federal elections the day before, appeared alongside Franzisca Giffey and Manuela Schwesig, also winners in Sunday's elections in Berlin and in the small eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

The SPD has reason to celebrate.

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After two decades of defeats, Scholz now claims that the Germans have given him the confidence to form a tripartite government with the Greens and the liberals of the FDP.

“The voters have spoken clearly.

They have strengthened the three parties and therefore we have a very clear mandate for the three of us to build the next government ”, said the candidate of the party that on Sunday obtained 25.7% of the votes compared to 24.1% of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Armin Laschet.

This result means, according to Scholz, that the CDU "has received the message that it must go to the opposition."

The Social Democrats feel they have the legitimacy to lead the Government for the first time since Gerhard Schröder lost in 2005 - also by the minimum, in that case with an even narrower margin, of only eight tenths - to an Angela Merkel who seemed very weakened. But that does not mean that the stage is clear. Because despite the fact that the CDU has received the worst results in its history, Laschet has made it clear that he does not intend to give up. Probably because his departure from the Government would mean, most likely, his political death.

Knives already fly from Munich. The leadership of the CSU sister party meets there on Monday morning. And there, according to Die Welt, the president of the parliamentary group, Alexander Dobrindt, has already criticized the campaign of the Christian Democrats, among other things, for the weakness of his candidate. Laschet is aware that he must at all costs convince greens and liberals to choose him as a dance partner over Scholz.

The battle will be tough.

And Scholz has on his part the legitimacy of having been first and of having obtained strong electoral support, in the face of the unprecedented punishment of Laschet's CDU.

But German law is clear: it will be the chancellor who has the most deputies in his favor, and the two candidates enter that game.

It would not be the first time that a chancellor has not come from the most voted party.

It happened on three occasions, in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, when the Liberals preferred to support the Social Democrats Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt over the CDU candidates.

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Precisely to that "successful" past of social-liberal cooperation with Foreign Ministers Brandt and Schmidt and to the experience of the Government with the Greens under Gerhard Schröder, Scholz has referred this Monday to highlight the negotiating bases that are now being opened. The key man in this fight is Christian Lindner, leader of the Liberals, in principle closest to the CDU. Lindner, who aspires to become finance minister, insists that in no government in which he participates there will be tax increases and that the control of public finances will be tight. The Greens - led by Annalena Baerbock, who could be Foreign Minister, and Robert Habeck, who will play a very important role - emphasize that with them Germany has to achieve climate neutrality in the next 20 years,which would mean going five years ahead of the objective set by the SPD.

The debate of the candidates on Sunday made it clear that Greens and Liberals are entering the negotiations with great force.

And both Scholz and Laschet seem willing to give them whatever they ask for in order to achieve their goal of being chancellor.

But this is all just beginning.

The dance of chairs, positions and negotiations is going to go on for weeks.

Scholz, who on the election night said that he hopes to close an agreement before Christmas, added this Monday that the negotiations will be carried out with "pragmatism and claims."

The Germans already know what food they have ordered, but they do not know what dish they are going to receive.

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