Elections in Germany, the great European locomotive, mean that the big issues of the EU are largely seized: this September has been a
rentrée
idling, with countless complex folders on the table - the reform of fiscal rules, relations with China, the negotiation of the migratory package, the European green pact -; but many of them have been stacked or stuck in the freezer, awaiting the electoral results and the negotiations for a coalition government that are now opening. There are those who predicted these days in the diplomatic groups that a new Executive is not expected in Berlin before, at least, two months. But the first question has already been cleared: the Social Democrats of Olaf Scholz have won - by the minimum - and he has already declared his intention to send the CDU / CSU “to the opposition”. Which supposes from this moment a turn in the driving forces of the EU.
The European socialist family has immediately come out to reap the fruits of a victory that changes the tones of the community bloc, when until recently it was considered dead in the EU. "She was not dead, she was partying," jokes a source of European socialism. The trend, in fact, had been going on for some time. Right now there are six governments in the EU with social democratic leadership (Denmark, Finland, Malta, Portugal, Sweden and Spain), three with a presence as a junior partner of the executive (Czech Republic and Luxembourg, in addition to Germany so far) and another where that force it is part of a broader coalition of parties (Belgium). Scholz's triumph gives that in-laws a quantum boost.
Among the first swords of the EU to support Scholz are party colleagues, such as Frans Timmermans, executive vice-president of the European Commission in charge of carrying out the European green deal: "Congratulations on a strong social democratic result," he wrote in a tweet shortly after the results were known. "Social justice, climate protection and the green transformation of our economy and society go hand in hand and the outcome of the elections underlines this."
The EU, on the other hand, has avoided making an official pronouncement on the electoral result. The President of the Council, Charles Michel, nor the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, nor the head of diplomacy, Josep Borrell, did not. Who has celebrated it is the Italian socialist David Sassoli, president of the European Parliament, another of the key positions of the institutional balance of Brussels: “After this historical crisis, there is no time to lose: Europe needs a strong and reliable partner in Berlin to continue our common work for a social and green recovery ”, he celebrated on social media.
The messages make it clear that with Scholz at the forefront, the social and ecological dimension would take on a renewed prominence. But there are other fronts - interconnected, like almost everything today - where his arrival could change things. "The most important impact of Scholz as the new chancellor would be with respect to the tax reform of the EU," predicts Camino Mortera, researcher at the Center for European Reform, a think tank based in Brussels. "He is obviously less dogmatic in that sense and perhaps more in favor of loosening the rules of the stability and growth pact a bit." The Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, announced a couple of weeks ago that he would open the public consultation on this tax reform “in the autumn”, which basically meant that he would wait for the result of the German elections.
Join EL PAÍS now to follow all the news and read without limits
Subscribe here
A tense negotiation is expected in the governance debate, with countries - such as Spain - advocating for a "modernization" of the Stability Pact, and urging that it happen before the general escape clause is deactivated, and others - such as Holland - willing to negotiate, but rather little or almost nothing. The fellow travelers in the German Executive will have the ability to shape the future of the EU. "In the German elections, almost more important than who is chancellor is who is in the coalition," adds researcher Mortera. It is not the same, for example, that the helm of finance falls into the hands of a socialist, green or liberal minister. Especially when one of the proposals that Brussels handles to make spending rules more flexible is a kind of “green golden rule”, that is:the possibility for Member States to exclude investments for the ecological transition from debt.
Mortera also believes that only the fact that the leader of the CDU, Armin Laschet, does not lead the country has consequences: in relations with China, for example, it has defended "very mercantilist and pragmatic positions, in the antipodes of what the United States, the United Kingdom and the West in general are doing right now ”. Scholz's vision, on the other hand, is more “moderate”, which would make it easier for the EU to find its place in the world, between the two economic powers of the planet.
The international leadership role that Berlin can establish from now on will be key. Brussels is in an advanced phase of its perennial and tortured debate on the strategic autonomy of the bloc; The misgivings towards the United States have grown, after the chaotic abandonment of Afghanistan and the bad forms of the agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom to sell nuclear submarines to Australia, which has roused Paris and by extension the rest of the community partners. The President of the Commission, the also German Ursula von der Leyen, has also announced in the debate on the state of the EU her intention to move towards common defense. It is a cocktail with many ingredients: Scholz, if he manages to rule, will play with the frayed ties of Atlanticism,while trying to balance it with a solid response to Russia and China. Another of its great challenges will be to face the complex game that Brussels is dealing with with Poland and Hungary, the unruly neighbors to the East, who have put the rule of law in check and have been straining their pulse with the EU for months. Both have their recovery plans paralyzed for the moment, the margin that Brussels has to twist its arm.
For Iratxe García, head of the group of European socialists in the European Parliament, it is still too early to know what may happen in Berlin. But he values Scholz's electoral victory positively: "The result is good for Europe, and therefore good for Spain." García believes that with any of the candidates Angela Merkel's strong pro-European line was guaranteed. But she is now withdrawing and leaving a huge void from which French President Emmanuel Macron, who heads the other great machine of the European train, is predictably trying to profit. You will have a chance to breastfeed: in January, Paris takes over the semi-annual presidency of the EU and the country also faces an election in spring. Macron is likely to make his leadership notice, taking advantage of the German relief,But diplomatic sources also predict a somewhat paralyzed French presidency of the EU precisely because of its internal elections: with any bad gesture in Brussels there is always the risk that it will have an amplified echo in the polls at home.
"The time has come to expand the Franco-German front," Iratxe García picked up the glove, when questioned about the post-Merkel stage. "Today we have to talk about a Franco-Spanish-German axis, which can work very well in defending the European policies that have been put in place and that we have to continue promoting and consolidating." According to the socialist, Scholz has already more than demonstrated his service agenda during his time as finance minister in Merkel's government. "It has allowed the response to the crisis caused by the pandemic to be different from that of the past," he says, marking the difference between the austerity emanating from Berlin and Brussels after the Great Recession of 2008 and the expansive and joint response with which The EU has faced the crisis caused by the coronavirus. And it is on this ground that,According to him, the path taken by Germany and the possible electoral pacts will be more noticeable: Will the EU's economic response to the covid be structurally maintained? Will it make further progress in debt mutualisation instruments? Will fiscal rules be suspended or relaxed beyond 2022? The debate, in fact, has only just begun.
Follow all the international information on
and
, or in
our weekly newsletter
.