A survey is always to be taken with a lot of tweezers, but it will certainly make a lot of noise.
Eric Zemmour, who has not declared himself a candidate, would for the first time be qualified in the second round of the presidential election with 17 to 18% of the voting intentions, behind Emmanuel Macron (24 to 27%), according to this Harris Interactive survey for Challenges published this Wednesday (*).
The polemicist, putative candidate for the Elysee on a far right line, is ahead of candidate RN Marine Le Pen (15 to 16%) in each of the configurations tested, and distances the candidate from the right whoever he is.
According to this study, Eric Zemmour would get 17% against Xavier Bertrand (13%) or Valérie Pécresse (11%), and 18% against Michel Barnier (7%).
EXCLUDED @Challenges Zemmour doubles Le Pen and opens the doors of the second round:
- 🟡 Macron 24% (+1)
- ⚫ Zemmour 17% (+4)
- ⚫ Le Pen 15% (-1)
- 🔵 Bertrand 13% (-1)
- 🔴 Mélenchon 11% (-2)
- 🔴 Hidalgo 6% (-1)
- 🟢 Jadot 6% (=)
- 🔵 Dupont-Aignan 2% (=) pic.twitter.com/J6LiT172yY
- Rémi Clément (@rclmt) October 6, 2021
"Never has a candidate known in such a short time, in measures of voting intentions, an evolution such as that experienced by Eric Zemmour", comments in the analysis of the poll Antoine Gautier, researcher at Harris Interactive.
The polemicist continues his meteoric progress since September 8, when his candidacy was tested for the first time by this institute, collecting 7% of the voting intentions.
According to this study, Emmanuel Macron would however still win in the second round with 55% of the vote, against 45% for Eric Zemmour.
Marine Le Pen in trouble
Marine Le Pen, which all the polls for many months had qualified for the second round, continues to decline sharply, compared to previous waves which gave her 28% in early June and still 24% in early August.
“When she had the opportunity, she preferred to talk about Europe, the euro, but not this issue.
So his turn is over, ”said Eric Zemmour to the Boulevard Voltaire site on Tuesday
.
On the left, LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon would get 11% of the vote, ecologist Yannick Jadot 6 to 7%, and socialist Anne Hidalgo 6%, far ahead of Arnaud Montebourg (2%).
Read also Presidential 2022: 10% of the vote for Zemmour, really?
These pitfalls to avoid when reading the polls
However, be careful with interpretations.
Voting intentions do not constitute a forecast of the outcome of the poll and they simply give an indication of the balance of power and dynamics on the day of the poll.
In addition, it should be kept in mind that there are margins of error of up to 3 percentage points.
Finally, barely one in two respondents say they are generally sure to vote, which makes any prediction impossible.
* Survey carried out online from October 1 to 4 with a sample of 1,310 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over, including 1,062 registered on the electoral roll, according to the quota method.