The Prime Minister and populist billionaire Andrej Babis, in dispute with the European Union and targeted by the “Pandora Papers”, seems to be the favorite of the Czech parliamentary elections which begin on Friday and the result of which promises to be very close.
Prime Minister Andrej Babis will seek a second consecutive victory for his ANO movement, despite mixed handling of the pandemic and his run-ins with the law.
The 67-year-old agribusiness, chemicals and media mogul is accused of alleged EU subsidy fraud and has caused dismay in the EU, which accuses him of a conflict of interest between his roles as a businessman and politician.
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Last weekend, the international "Pandora Papers" investigation revealed that it had used money from its offshore companies to finance the purchase of properties in the south of France in 2009, including a castle. Babis sees the allegations as a smear campaign against him, and opinion polls still see the former Communist Party member as the poll favorite, with support reaching 30%.
"The key question is whether populist politics will win out over traditional and more responsible politicians"
, estimates Tomas Lebeda, analyst at Palacky University in Olomouc (east).
Polling stations open Friday from 12 p.m. to 8 p.m. GMT, before resuming from 6 a.m. to 12 p.m. GMT on Saturday.
There will be no exit polls and the results are expected Saturday evening.
ANO pursues the kind of populism we know from textbooks - a strong leader who seeks to divide society and create a tribal identity.
"
Tomas Lebeda, analyst at Palacky University in Olomouc
Andrej Babis, the fifth Czech fortune, according to Forbes, presides over a minority government with the Social Democrats, tacitly supported by the Communist Party which ruled the former totalitarian Czechoslovakia from 1948 to 1989. Facing Andrej Babis are mainly two groups including the Popularity has skyrocketed since the start of the year, during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the country topped the world's death and infection statistics per capita. An alliance of the Pirate Party, anti-establishment, with the centrist Mayors and Independents, on one side, and, on the other side, the Ensemble coalition, made up of the right-wing Civic Democratic Party, TOP 09 (center-right) and the Christian Democratic Union (center),temporarily replaced ANO at the top of the popularity charts.
But the prime minister quickly went on the attack, threatening an uncertain future for the nation should his rivals win, and tipped the odds in his favor.
"ANO pursues the kind of populism we know from textbooks - a strong leader who seeks to divide society and create a tribal identity"
, underlines Tomas Lebeda.
The economy of the Czech Republic, an EU member country of 10.7 million people, is on the road to post-pandemic recovery.
But recent increases in public sector pensions and wages have caused the public finance deficit to explode.
In its campaign, the ANO tackled illegal immigration and pledged to preserve gasoline-powered cars as well as the traditional Czech energy mix, which relies on nuclear power.
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Other parties that count in the electoral race include the far-right anti-Muslim movement Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), led by entrepreneur Tomio Okamura, born in Tokyo.
The Social Democrats and Communists remain in the running, but they risk not crossing the five percent eligibility threshold, recent polls show.
It will be up to pro-Russian President Milos Zeman to appoint the new prime minister, and Andrej Babis can count on his former ally here.
According to Josef Mlejnek, analyst at Charles University in Prague, the head of state
"will do his best to keep the ANO in power"
.