Tensions in the South Caucasus have not abated since the Second Carbach War in 2020, and these days, the actress who is stepping up tensions is Iran.
After the Azerbaijani victory, Turkey and Israel were able to strengthen their presence in the region, thanks to their alliance with Baku.
Even Russia, mediated by the ceasefire agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, could have found its place in the new status quo - when it was engaged in operating the peacekeeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh.
However, the limitations and duties of this power remained ambiguous.
Therefore, Iran, left out of the new balance of power in the South Caucasus, is frustrated and nervous.
Despite Erdogan's call for a six-member framework (which includes Ankara, Moscow, Baku, Tbilisi, Yerevan and Tehran) in June this year, as well as Aliyev's call for peace on the Khodaafarin bridge - which links Azerbaijan to Iran - last year, Iranian authorities have chosen to cause tensions With their neighbor to the north.
Simulation of the Iranian invasion of Azerbaijan / Photo: Caliber Agency
The Iranian discourse is definitely serious. Iran has supported Armenia since the 1990s (Iran recently valued Iranian aid) and illegally transfers goods to an entity called the "Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh" through Azerbaijani territory. The Azerbaijanis responded legally when they arrested the Iranian drivers even before entering their territory. But Tehran reacted so harshly against Baku that there is no room left for imagination as to the real reasons for this.
First and foremost, Iran does not accept the consequences of its actions: its support for Armenia and its denial of the new status quo that isolates it from regional issues.
Second, Iran opposes Israeli-Turkish relations with Azerbaijan.
Tehran's accusations regarding an Israeli base in Azerbaijan illustrate its level of non-presence and paranoia.
Finally, there will be those who will think that Russia has taken advantage of the Iranian response to advance the establishment of the framework of the six countries of the region, in parallel with Turkey's previous proposal.
In this way, Moscow can create (again) a balance of power, which is not necessarily in favor of Baku and Ankara.
Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi at the Bushhar nuclear facility, Photo: Reuters
A final point is the timing of the Iranian response. For more than two months, Azerbaijan and Turkey have been trying to build regional stability and security, with an olive leaf offering to Armenia. The calls from Ankara and Baku, especially from Azerbaijan, illustrate the sincere desire for peace and stability, despite the horrors of the past. Beyond that, recent developments in Azerbaijan-Israel relations show us that the opening of the Azerbaijan Embassy in Israel is expected very soon. While Iran is not happy about the nature of these relations, its actions have shortened the length of the waiting time for the inauguration of the embassy. Despite the close relations since the collapse of the USSR, Azerbaijan has not yet opened an embassy in Israel. However, as recent statements by senior Azerbaijani officials show, a historic moment for the South Caucasus and the Middle East is just around the corner.
Iran could risk starting a war with Azerbaijan, which has the full support of Israel and Turkey.
While Turkey is trying to benefit from the power game, we can not say that Moscow will allow Tehran a military struggle in the region.
Thus, the Iranian war games are a reflection of what Russia did near the Ukrainian border in April 2021. However, Iran does not have the means and power that Russia has always had.
With tens of millions (by various estimates) of members of Turkish ethnic groups in Iran, Tehran cannot risk a war against Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Iranian fighters in exercise "Cyber Conquerors", Photo: IPI
Hence another issue, which involves Israel and Turkey.
While Ankara and Baku are pursuing similar and common foreign policy goals, one of the unusual gaps is relations with Israel.
But, if Tehran continues to whip up tensions with Azerbaijan, it is not unreasonable to think that the Israeli and Turkish defense ministries, and even other senior officials, will work together.
The media, which already exists between the two countries, can contribute to the process of normalization between the countries, thanks to Iran.
The author is an Independent Türkçe commentator.
