Lion Rock Typhoon ︱Members intend to invite the Observatory to the Legislative Council to explain the drawing, which is affiliated to the Bureau of Commerce and Economics because of the impact on the economy?

During the tropical cyclone "Lion Rock" approaching Hong Kong, the Observatory was suspected of issuing the black rainstorm warning too late. At the time of the issue, there were heavy rains and severe flooding in a wide area. The citizens are at a loss.

The Observatory has once again become the subject of accusations. In the past two days, netizens have also been greeted by netizens on social networks. Some people also blamed the collapse of the scaffold in Happy Valley and the death of female workers.

It is understood that some members of the Legislative Council believe that there is indeed room for improvement in the arrangements for handling weather forecasts at the Observatory.

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Throughout the period when the "Lion Rock" struck Hong Kong, the Observatory's handling of warning signals has three main disputes:

1. Rainstorm warning signal problem

During the period when Typhoon Signal No. 3 took effect on October 8, torrential rains have fallen across Hong Kong.

However, the Observatory maintained the yellow rainstorm warning issued the previous night. By the time the observatory changed the red rainstorm warning signal at 11:20 in the morning, flooding had occurred in a wide area, the car died and the bus had to be driven under the flood. , Dubbed "water bus" by netizens, is quite dangerous.

In the end, "Red Rain" only lasted for 25 minutes and then changed to "Black Rain", which seemed to have lost the function of the warning signal "early warning".

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2. Suddenly catch wave 8 in the morning

In addition, the Observatory issued a press release in the early hours of Friday morning saying: "Unless the Lion Rock increases significantly or takes a path closer to Hong Kong, the chance of re-issued the No. 8 gale or storm signal is low." In the end, the Observatory did not have a warning. Suddenly announced at 4:40 a.m. yesterday that he expected to send the No. 8 signal at or before 6:40 a.m., and was accused of a wrong prediction.

Although looking at the wind speed data from the Observatory, the strongest wind in Hong Kong does appear on Saturday, and the waves may not meet the requirements early on Friday. The wind changes of tropical cyclones are indeed quite variable.

However, there are also opinions that the Observatory can warn of these uncertainties in advance when the typhoon signal No. 3 is issued, and there is no need to prematurely determine that the chance of "8" is low.

3. The time of "Looping" is changed again and again

The Observatory issued typhoon signal No. 8 at 6:40 a.m. yesterday. After that, it was announced several times that it was considering changing to typhoon signal No. 3. It has been extended from "early afternoon" to the present day before sunrise. At least six claims have appeared.

The number of "changes" is very rare, and some netizens laugh at the Observatory's "indecision."

The Observatory subsequently wrote an article to explain that the rain belt that affected the Pearl River Estuary moved faster yesterday morning, so the wind is expected to weaken. However, the broad squally rain belt outside the "Lion Rock" remained unchanged throughout the afternoon. The situation was not as expected. The squally rain belt More broad and sustained than expected.

Former Assistant Director: The contradiction of roles in the changing weather is nonsense

All in all, under the superposition of various factors, the observatory has become a target of public criticism.

Among them, some citizens reiterated that the Observatory still belongs to the Bureau of Commerce and Economic Development, which is inconsistent with the role of the Meteorological Department.

There are often conspiracy theories on the Internet. Will the Observatory take into account the impact on economic activities when it "hangs waves", which indirectly leads to a conservative attitude towards the issuance of the No. 8 typhoon signal and black rain on working days?

The former assistant director of the Observatory, Leung Wing-wu, said that as a public-facing meteorological department, it is understandable to consider the safety of the public as much as possible if it can take care of the situation.

However, he pointed out that the crux of the problem is that, with the current scientific level, weather forecasts have always been random. The weather is very variable, rain belts may appear rapidly, and the affected areas may also change.

If the Observatory sends out a lot of red rain and black rain every time, there will be more possibility of false alarms. In the end, it will also reduce the public’s vigilance. Red rain and black rain, this one is unrealistic."

However, he agrees that it is impossible to require the Observatory to issue relevant warnings every time it is "sufficient to mark". Therefore, this requires the organization to consider the actual situation and give warnings to the public as early as possible, and not because of too early forecasts. This leads to frequent false alarms, "Our old saying in meteorology is that weather forecasting is both a science and an art. It depends on how the meteorological department balances the two, whichever is less."

Liang Rongwu, former assistant director of the observatory.

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The Bureau of Commerce and Economic Affairs once said that the Observatory’s decision to affect business

As for the online claims that the Observatory is subordinate to the Bureau of Commerce and Economic Affairs, which has caused contradictory roles, Liang Rongwu believes that it is nonsense, referring to many economically developed countries, and meteorological agencies are subordinate to economic departments, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). , Are all under the Ministry of Commerce: "Many people admire the United States, and the United States is all. Since the weather will affect the development of economic activities, what about the problem?" He clearly stated that the Observatory has a high degree of autonomy in decision-making." Hanging up waves and issuing warnings has always been based on science, at least I have done it for many years, and I have never seen any intervention by the bureau."

The former director of the Observatory, Shun Chi-ming, explained that the observatory was subordinate to the Bureau of Commerce and Economic Development because the observatory provided visual information for shipping in the early years, which was closely related to the economic activities of Hong Kong at that time.

In 2014, DAB member Chan Keqin asked whether the government would transfer the Observatory from the Bureau of Commerce and Economics to the Department of the Environment Bureau. However, Su Jinliang, then Director of Commerce and Economics, pointed out that the decision of the Observatory affected business operations and transferred it to the Department of Economic Affairs. Management also has historical factors and no intention to change.

Ge Peifan: I hope constructive discussion is not for criticism

During the heavy rain last Friday, Ge Peifan, a member of the Legislative Council of the DAB and a member of the Economic Development Committee, said that the meteorological satellite imagery of the Observatory combined with geographic information system (GIS) and artificial intelligence technology has developed rapidly and can already be accurately predicted. The rainfall in some areas is believed to have been predicted a few days ago that under the influence of tropical cyclones, Hong Kong will experience extreme rainstorms. In fact, the market also experienced serious flooding and collapsed scaffolding on that day, which is very dangerous.

She also mentioned that the Education Bureau should not be too rigid when dealing with student suspension arrangements. It can notify the day of suspension as early as possible to prevent students from encountering heavy rains and drenched bodies on their way to school.

Ge Peifan responded to the author's inquiry and pointed out that he would try to ask relevant officials to go to the committee to resolve the drawing.

She pointed out that, of course, she understands that the Observatory is very professional and uses scientific data to determine how to make early warnings. However, in some cases, the public may feel that the observatory is not close enough to the ground: "The public's expectations of the Observatory are not just because they want to know some scientific data. And I want to know the potential dangers of the weather outside, so that everyone can make preparations. People will think that they can do a good job in communicating with the public? For example, make better use of technology? Improve the mode of communication with the public?"

For example, Ge Peifan pointed out that the Observatory can strengthen communication with different policy bureaus and warn that there may be heavy rains as early as possible. Other departments can also deal with the most humane problems more humanely, and different departments can also learn lessons to avoid similar chaos in the future.

She emphasized: "I don't want to criticize him (the observatory), but I want to find a constructive way. I can do a good job after seeing something."

Zhang Huafeng: Asking officials to explain reasonably

Zhang Huafeng, Chairman of the Economic Development Commission, told the author that there is currently no relevant agenda. If a member requests to add an agenda or convene a special meeting to discuss designated matters before the next meeting starts, he will send a letter to ask the members for their opinions before deciding whether to add an agenda. ; If government officials have specific requirements, they can also add an agenda.

He pointed out that he has not received relevant requests from members for the time being.

As for the principle, Zhang Huafeng personally thinks that the request of inviting officials to explain is reasonable: "The storm is coming very urgently, but (the observatory) looks like there is no adequate warning. Can it be done well? You know, Hong Kong has become a city and many are so urgent. If a signal goes up sooner or later, you can get messy."

Zhong Guobin said it was not a "big deal"

Another committee member and leader of the Liberal Party, Zhong Guobin, believes that it may not be necessary. He believes that the observatory’s warning signal is based on scientific data, but of course it can be more humane in addition to science: "Will you explain more so that everyone can understand? How to make the final decision based on what data? Of course there is room for discussion." He said with a smile: "Everything is detailed, there are unpredictable circumstances. The weather is awkward, and every day there are people complaining. I will complain if I need it."

He also mentioned that there is not much time left before the end of the current legislative session. There is only one meeting on October 22 to discuss the content of the "Policy Address." Whether it’s tolerable or not is unknown. If the chairman decides and the time is "photographed", the secretariat will cooperate and will all be together, but I personally feel that it is not "big deal" (important) to such an extent."

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