After the tropical cyclone Lion Rock "raided" last week, the Observatory predicted that the Severe Tropical Storm Compasses will enter the 800-kilometer warning range of Hong Kong tonight (11th). The strong monsoon signal will then be directly converted to Typhoon Signal No. 3, just like Like Lion Rock, skipping Typhoon No. 1; the Observatory also predicts that Compass will intensify into a typhoon. It will be the closest to Hong Kong at the beginning of Wednesday (13th). It will pass about 400 kilometers south of Hong Kong. The wind may reach gale force in some areas of Hong Kong. , May need to change the No. 8 typhoon signal.
Director Zheng Chuming said at today’s press conference that the compass is an "autumn platform" like the Lion Rock. South China is affected by the northeast monsoon. When a tropical cyclone is in the South China Sea, the combined effect of the two will increase the wind force; when the compass is close When Hong Kong is south of Hong Kong, the relevant rainband will move closer to the Pearl River Estuary, and the wind will continue to strengthen. The wind will be at its highest time. It is expected from late Tuesday to early Wednesday, depending on whether the path changes.
▼October 11th, the weather was fine on the eve of the tropical cyclone Compasses hitting Hong Kong▼
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At the beginning of Wednesday, it is expected to reach gale intensity or need to change the No. 8 typhoon signal
The observatory issued a strong monsoon signal at 4 pm, indicating that the local wind force is equivalent to the No. 3 typhoon signal.
The Observatory announced that when the compass enters within 800 kilometers of Hong Kong tonight, a tropical cyclone warning signal will be issued to replace the strong monsoon signal.
Senior Science Director Li Zixiang said that it is currently affected by the northeast monsoon and is moving to the west in a dry and westward direction. Coupled with the common influence of the same monsoon, the wind in South China gradually strengthened in the evening.
The weather turned worse later on Tuesday, with strong winds and high astronomical tides on Wednesday, strong winds and heavy rain, and low-lying areas may be flooded.
Admitting the dissemination of the Lion Rock message is not satisfactory
Li Zixiang continued that after the compass enters the 800-kilometer warning range of Hong Kong, the No. 3 typhoon signal will be sent directly, and like the Lion Rock, the No. 1 typhoon signal will not be sent.
It is predicted that the wind will further strengthen on Tuesday and early Wednesday, reaching gale intensity, and the tropical cyclone warning signal No. 8 may need to be re-issued, but there are uncertainties, including the entry of compasses into the South China Sea and the influence of the northeast monsoon. It is still unknown whether the intensity and circulation will weaken. .
The director of the observatory, Cheng Chuming, said that the Lion Rock, like the compass, is an "autumn station." If there is no monsoon, the related gales will not affect Hong Kong; but the two will flicker and the wind will increase.
(Photo by Zhang Haowei)
Director: Compasses is already a severe tropical storm, which is closer than Lion Rock
The director of the observatory, Cheng Chuming, said that the Lion Rock is an "autumn station" like the compass. South China is affected by the northeast monsoon. When there is a tropical cyclone in the South China Sea, the combined effect of the two will increase the wind force. Compared to a typical tropical cyclone, if there is no northeast season. The wind will not be so strong. For example, Lion Rock is quite far away from Hong Kong. If there is no monsoon, the related gale winds will not affect Hong Kong, but the two will collide and the wind will increase.
He said that the compass is currently east of Luzon Island in the Philippines, gradually crossing the Luzon Strait, and passing 400 kilometers south of Hong Kong on Wednesday.
Affected by the north wind, the weather today is good; but when the compass approaches the south of Hong Kong, the relevant rainband will move closer to the Pearl River Estuary, the wind will continue to strengthen, and the maximum wind will be expected from late Tuesday to early Wednesday, depending on whether the path changes.
He pointed out that the compass may be closer to Hong Kong than the lion. The Lion Rock is the nearest 500 kilometers, and the circular rule is expected to be 400 kilometers. The Lion Rock is a tropical storm, and the compass is already a severe tropical storm, so it is stronger; the two winds have different positions and paths. The impact on Hong Kong is also different.
▼October 9th Tropical Cyclone Lion Rock No. 8 Typhoon Citizens Chasing the Wind▼
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Senior Science Director Li Zixiang (right) said that the wind in South China will gradually strengthen tonight and the No. 3 typhoon signal will be sent directly.
(Photo by Zhang Haowei)
Last Friday the red rain and the black rain were late?
Zheng Chuming: Not up to the standard before 11 o'clock
Director Cheng Chuming said that the tropical storm Lion Rock is "somewhat special". It is a rare tropical storm in recent decades. The observatory issued the farthest typhoon signal No. 8. He described the path of Lion Rock as erratic, not in a straight line, and kept 500 meters away from Hong Kong. Kilometers are quite far away.
He reiterated that apart from Lion Rock, the northeast monsoon affects us, and the combined effect makes Hong Kong very windy.
He said that the red and black rainstorm warnings were issued before the standards were met. There were some predictive components. The forecasts were based on nowcasting and tens of minutes, but they had to be predicted several hours ago. He said that the world could not do so. Try to send out before the red and black reach the standard, maybe more than 10 minutes.
Zheng Chuming continued that the amount of rainfall brought by the Lion Rock was quite large. Last Friday (8th) the rainfall amounted to 329.7, which was the highest in a single day in October. He described it as extremely extreme.
Zheng Chuming said that the outer rainbands of Lion Rock were affected in the morning that day. The outer rainbands were loose and not particularly large from 6 to 11 in the morning. They only met the yellow rainstorm warning standard indicators from beginning to end, and did not reach the red or black rainstorm warning indicators; However, it developed rapidly in the southeast of Hong Kong at about 11 o'clock. The rain increased nearby and the amount of rain increased rapidly. Therefore, a red rain warning was issued at 11:20 and a black rain warning was issued at 11:45.
The director of the observatory, Zheng Chuming (left), has repeatedly stated that it is currently impossible to predict whether there will be black rain in the next few hours.
(Photo by Zhang Haowei)
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Reiterate that it is currently impossible to predict whether there will be black rain in the next few hours
Regarding the fatal scaffolding accident that day, Cheng Chuming said: "I feel the same as everyone. It's sad to hear that some citizens died due to inclement weather." Regarding whether to publish a mistake, he said that during the investigation of the scaffolding incident, the situation was not known.
He explained that the rain brought by the Lion Rock turned sharply before noon, but the black rain signal had not come before. The Observatory issued the black rain signal based on scientific data and based on data science. Basically, it is impossible." If there is heavy rain in a wide range of circumstances, the forecast/weather report will try to mention it.
He said that the No. 3 typhoon signal had been issued that day, strong winds were blowing, and heavy rains were coming quickly. There is currently no way to predict whether there will be dark rain in the next few hours. For example, the essay has already foretelled the bad weather in the future, and appealed to the public to prepare as soon as possible.
He said that at the press conference last Friday, Assistant Director Song Wenjuan was not responding to the scaffolding incident, but aimed at 2050 carbon emissions.
He said that in the future Compasses storm, there will be more manpower to deal with rapid changes. He hopes that more manpower will see the situation, and after learning from the previous experience, he will predict the changes in the future weather in advance, know the general situation, and be prepared.
He said how improvements can be made in the future, such as whether the forecast can be improved, the release of information is clearer, and how to make more improvements in the future will be reviewed.
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The typhoon ball chaotic observatory: the wind is expected to subside in the afternoon that morning
Regarding the issue of the typhoon signal, Zheng Chuming pointed out that the wind in Hong Kong strengthened in the morning of last Saturday (9th), but it is expected that Lion Rock will gradually move away from Hong Kong. It is a typical tropical storm that will weaken. Strong winds are expected at around 2 pm, and slightly windy areas are predicted at 5 pm Going west means that the computer predicts that the wind in Hong Kong will gradually decrease, and the forecast of wind going westward at Lion Rock is consistent.
He pointed out that the Lion Rock is relatively erratic. It was in the middle of Hainan Island at 8 a.m. that day. It had been away from the north and moved northward, and it was closer to Hong Kong. The Lion Rock plus the northeast monsoon compound is quite related. Strong wind, the wind is expected to subside in the afternoon in the morning and will not last for long on the 8th.
▼On October 9th, tropical cyclone Lion Rock No. 8 Typhoon Mong Kok was deserted on weekend ▼
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▼Tropical Storm Lion Rock hit Hong Kong on October 9.
Market conditions under Typhoon Signal No. 8▼
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Zheng Chuming: The forecast needs to be changed according to the latest situation
Cheng Chuming said that last Saturday it was originally expected that Lion Rock would gradually move away from Hong Kong and the wind would weaken, but later changed. It was originally expected that Typhoon Signal No. 8 would not last for a long time, so a notice was made that it would be reduced to Typhoon Signal No. 3; however, the path moved closer. Coupled with the influence of the monsoon, which brings heavy rain, it is necessary to change the forecast according to the latest situation. He admitted that the situation is not ideal and will review how the situation can be improved.
▼Tropical Storm Lion Rock hit Hong Kong on October 9.
The Observatory issues typhoon signal No. 8▼
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▼Tropical Storm Lion Rock hit Hong Kong on October 9.
Market conditions under Typhoon Signal No. 8▼
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