Rarely has the influence of the polls seemed so striking at the start of the campaign.
Since the start of the school year, the polling commission - the authority in charge of verifying compliance with the legislation in this area - has already recorded 14 cases in the first round of the presidential election.
To discover
Presidential 2022: where are the candidates in the polls?
This appetite can be explained in particular by the abandonment of the primary format by the main parties, preferring more or less closed congresses.
Less divisive, they nevertheless prevent the perception of the potential of a candidate outside of his training.
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Presidential 2022: where are the candidates in the polls?
Only the ecologists persisted in the organization of a primary, which saw the surprise outbreak of Sandrine Rousseau finishing second with only 2000 votes (out of more than 100,000 voters in the second round) from her competitor Yannick Jadot.
The latter was then clearly in the lead in opinion polls.
Pointing once again to the possible confusion between notoriety and popularity.
14 surveys for 61 hypotheses
The many uncertainties that remain six months before the first round also explain this widespread use of polls.
Many candidates have not yet been officially declared.
Others are but will not necessarily finish the race.
To cope, pollsters multiply the hypotheses (alliances, withdrawals, confrontations, ...).
The 14 surveys conducted so far can thus be broken down into 61 hypotheses tested with different panels.
Faced with this avalanche of sometimes contradictory data, Le Figaro offers you a new tool in order to see more clearly.
This tool will be updated daily.
Beyond the simple average of voting intentions, the superposition of the different margins of error sheds light on the degree of uncertainty generated by an application depending on the hypotheses and the panels (some of them going to vote or registered on the lists). election).
Thus, on the various surveys of the last two weeks only, Michel Barnier is credited with a score oscillating between 3.47% (low margin of the
Barnier / Zemmour
hypothesis
tested by Elabe on October 10) and 15.67% (high margin of the
Barnier
hypothesis
for LR without Zemmour's candidacy
at Ipsos on September 29).
