With Edelstein announcing his intention to run in the primaries, tensions are rising in the Likud.
In this interpretation we will review four possible scenarios to follow.
Scenario A:
No primaries.
Yuli Edelstein dropped a bombshell inside the Likud when he announced his intention to run for the leadership of the movement against Benjamin Netanyahu, thus apparently ahead of some of the party's senior members, who planned to take the same step but preferred to wait for the right time.
For Edelstein the right thing to do is for the primaries to take place at the earliest date, so as not to lose the momentum of the surprising announcement.
Benjamin Netanyahu also has an interest in advancing the internal elections.
First, in order to position his position as the Likud's candidate for prime minister and to remove from the chapter scenarios of alternative governments with and without the Likud.
Second, in order not to put the party in a spin of internal elections just before general elections - the legal date of elections for the chairmanship of the party, according to the constitution of the movement.
In all the recent election campaigns, Netanyahu was ahead of the party's leadership, and according to his associates, he planned to do so again this time, shortly after the general election.
However, despite the wishes of the candidates, it is not at all certain that Netanyahu and Edelstein will be able to advance the election.
The decision is in the hands of members of the party secretariat and members of the center, who, according to the assessments and voices heard on the ground, are not at all interested in bringing forward the election now.
They are joined by senior party officials and former ministers, who are not interested in allowing Edelstein to steal their attention from them and strengthen his position at their expense.
In that case, Edelstein's announcement would remain on ice.
At this time, the Minister of Health and former Knesset Speaker will try to strengthen his position, serve as a kind of opposition to Netanyahu within the Likud, and wait for the elections to come in a few years. By then, it is estimated that there will be more candidates.
Scenario chances: high.
Scenario B: The
primaries will be brought forward - and Netanyahu will win.
Despite opposition in the secretariat and at the center of the party, and especially among its senior officials, the fact that there are already two candidates interested in the election may cause everyone to draw a line and approve the early primaries and hold them soon.
The considerations for them may be many, chief among them reducing the period of time in which attention is directed to Edelstein.
In that case, if there are more candidates like Nir Barkat or Avi Dichter, or if everyone prefers to give up their candidacy this time, the former prime minister is expected to defeat them all and be re-elected Likud leader.
Netanyahu's status is strong, despite the loss of power.
Most Likud members showed that the messages that Netanyahu was failing to form a government while another candidate would succeed did not affect the extent of their support for his candidacy.
Edelstein's messages are no different from those of Gideon Saar at the time, and the results of the internal elections then should not be much different from the results of the upcoming elections, if any.
In addition, while Gideon Saar had a small camp of supporters within the faction, it is estimated that Yuli Edelstein will have difficulty forming a group of supporters around him.
According to internal polls conducted by the Likud in recent months, Edelstein is also not the leading candidate after Netanyahu.
Nir Barkat, for example, has an advantage over Likud functionaries, who are the body that elects the movement's leadership.
Scenario chances: high.
Scenario C: The
primaries will be brought forward - and Netanyahu will lose.
After four general elections, at the end of which Netanyahu failed to form a government, and after a coalition was formed on the basis of one common denominator - criticism of Netanyahu, it is possible that these spirits will reach the Likud as well.
The chances of this are slim, but they cannot be completely ignored, because if all election results were based on estimates - there would be no point in holding democratic elections and it would be possible to settle for the opinions of commentators.
According to this scenario, at the end of the counting of ballots in the primaries, it will become clear that Likud functionaries removed Netanyahu from office and crowned another leader under him.
On the one hand, the Likud rose that morning to a new reality, with the elected leader trying to screw his party back into power.
On the other hand, this is a scenario that the left-wing parties have been hoping for for many years.
The choice of the left-wing parties, Mish Atid, through Blue and White to Labor and Meretz, to focus on specific opposition to Netanyahu and not his way or the right, is intended for precisely this purpose: to remove the great obstacle on their way to power Netanyahu.
Despite the media embrace that Edelstein and the other Likud candidates will receive -
Scenario chances: very low.
Scenario D: A
split in the Likud.
The defeat of a candidate in the Likud leadership primaries has already led to a split in the party and the establishment of a new Tikva party led by Gideon Saar.
Despite Edelstein's commitment that even if he loses, he will remain in the Likud, it should be remembered that a similar promise was heard from Gideon Saar on the eve of his confrontation with Netanyahu, and after it.
One of the lessons that Netanyahu is supposed to draw from an assault case is not to humiliate the opponent, but on the contrary.
This will prevent him from feeling the humiliation and division that may follow.
On the other hand, Gideon Saar precedent not only does not promote division but may reject one, because today, just three months after the formation of the government, new hope falls below the blocking percentage and loses seats from week to week.
It should be remembered that under the new law, four MKs will retire from the Likud to form an independent faction that can join the government, which in turn will be very happy to strengthen its fingers in voting with important votes such as the state budget. .
Scenario chances: low to medium.