Although the midterm elections are only going to take place in more than a year, according to the apparent trend, the Democrats have a lot to fear among their bases, the Axis website reported this week.
According to an urgent report released by a group on the American progressive left, Way to Win, if Democrats do not recover they will be in an inferior position to Republicans because there is a growing drift of black and Hispanic voters toward Republicans.
Historically blacks and Hispanics vote by a wide margin for Democrats, but in the most recent presidential election it can be seen that many of these groups see the Republicans as their political home, and if Biden had not "stolen" white voters who were disappointed with Trump he probably would not have won.
According to the report - which analyzes about 9 million votes in a number of key states - Republican candidates were able to reach surprising support rates in the 2020 election (which also had a variety of positions besides the presidency) because Hispanics in Texas and blacks (mostly men) in Nevada, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado Vote at exceptional rates historically for the rival party.
If that is not enough, it appears that among Republican voters this was the first time they were running in the election - 20% were not white. This is also a relatively unusual rate.
Usually in the midterm elections - where the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate seats are at stake - the ruling party is hit hard because rival party voters have greater enthusiasm, but emerging trends show Democrats are likely to lose both houses of Congress if they do not strengthen the base.
The bottom line is that if Biden fails to maintain his achievements against whites who "defected" in his favor in 2020 because of the disappointment of Donald Trump, Democrats can not rely on their base among black and Hispanic groups because many are drawn to Republicans, and many will simply not go to the polls.
"These trends underscore the urgent need of the candidates' campaign headquarters to stop treating these constituencies as those whose support for Democrats is self-evident," the organization's report said. "The Democratic Party should assume that it will suffer a double blow in the elections in key countries - erosion in its support and growth in the support of the Democratic Party among young and non-white voters," it said.