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CDC predicts declines in covid hospitalizations and deaths


Covid-19 deaths and hospitalizations are expected to decline over the next four weeks, according to joint forecasts by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Wednesday.

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(CNN) -

Covid-19 deaths and hospitalizations are expected to decline over the next four weeks, according to joint forecasts by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Wednesday.

The most recent forecast predicts between 740,000 and 762,000 deaths reported for November 6.

It is the third consecutive week of a projected decrease in recently reported deaths.

There have been more than 717,000 deaths from covid-19 in the US, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The CDC's most recent forecast predicts 500 to 10,100 new confirmed covid-19 hospitalizations likely to be reported by November 5, a fifth consecutive week of projected declines.

As of October 12, there were 64,332 people hospitalized with COVID-19, according to US Health and Human Services data.

In terms of cases, no increase or decrease was forecast.


The latest forecasts come as COVID-19 cases are declining in the US, an optimistic outlook that must be tempered by the still high rate of infections, especially in children.

The number of new cases in children remains "exceptionally high," with 148,222 cases reported in the week ending Oct. 7, according to data from the American Academy of Pediatrics released Monday.

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Children accounted for nearly a quarter of the COVID-19 cases reported weekly, the AAP said.

Nationwide, Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been declining, according to Johns Hopkins University.

During the past week, an average of 87,676 people reported infections and 1,559 people died of COVID-19 a day, according to JHU data.

The infection rate still remains well above expectations, which Dr. Anthony Fauci said this Sunday should be below 10,000.

And with winter threatening to send people indoors and increase the spread, experts worry that cases will show up again.

The risk is higher for children, many of whom are not yet eligible for vaccination.

Currently, the vaccines are only available for children up to 12 years of age, although Pfizer and BioNTech have applied for an emergency use authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration for younger children.

Meanwhile, some schools have relied on preventative measures to protect students, such as wearing masks, distancing and testing.

In Massachusetts, Governor Charlie Baker plans to deploy 200 members of the National Guard to help with school tests for COVID-19.

But vaccination remains the best tool to fight the pandemic, experts say.

Some regions do better than others

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Thirty-five states have fully vaccinated more than half of their residents, while five more (Vermont, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine and Massachusetts) have fully vaccinated more than two-thirds, according to CDC data.

In general, the figures are not so promising.

As of Tuesday night, only 56.5% of the US population was fully vaccinated, according to CDC data.

"We need the overwhelming proportion of those unvaccinated people to be vaccinated and then we can be pretty sure that if we can do that, there will be no resurgence," said Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

In fact, vaccines could have prevented more than 90,000 deaths in the past three months, according to a new analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

More than 104,000 people in the US died from Covid-19 between June and September 2021, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Vaccines were widely available to all American adults at the time, but an "overwhelming majority" of those who died were not vaccinated, according to the KFF analysis.

If all adults over the age of 18 were vaccinated, more than 90,000 additional lives could have been saved between June and September.

About half of those preventable deaths, some 49,000, occurred in September alone, according to the foundation's analysis.

Hospital system 'deeply disappointed' by Texas vaccination order ban

While many experts and officials are encouraging institutions to enact vaccination mandates to protect employees, students, and clients, some are fighting their efforts.

This Monday, the governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, issued a decree that prohibits entities from requiring that people be vaccinated.

"The covid-19 vaccine is safe, effective, and our best defense against the virus, but it must remain voluntary and never forced," Abbott said.

"This goes against public health guidance and is really not the right thing to do in the middle of a pandemic," CNN medical analyst Dr. Leana Wen told CNN's John King on Tuesday.

Dr. Marc Boom, president and CEO of Houston Methodist, said the hospital system is reviewing the Abbott bill and its possible implications, while waiting for employees and physicians to be vaccinated.

Will there be changes after the pandemic?


"As the first hospital system in the country to order the covid-19 vaccine for employees and physicians, we are deeply disappointed with the governor's order attempting to prohibit such mandates," Boom said in a statement, noting that the system's employees and physicians they are 100% compatible.

"We have fulfilled our sacred obligation to keep our patients safe by putting them first. As a result, not only are our patients safe, but we can stay healthy at work and be there for our community when it needs us most."

More than 150 Houston Methodist employees resigned during a two-week suspension period in June or were fired for failing to comply with a mandatory vaccination policy.

Mandate bans have been especially relevant to healthcare systems, where some professionals have quit their jobs because of these vaccination mandates and others have advocated for them to protect their colleagues and vulnerable patients.

According to a new Axios-Ipsos poll, the majority of Americans, 65%, support the requirement for vaccinations for everyone who works in a healthcare setting.

It also found that more Americans, 30%, expect it to take more than a year to return to normal life before the covid, compared to 9% who thought this in early June.

Fewer people also say they have returned to normal life (22% now compared to 28% in June) or say it will happen in the next six months (13% compared to 36% in June) according to the survey.

In a sign of normalcy, senior administration officials told CNN that the United States plans to ease travel restrictions for fully vaccinated visitors from Canada and Mexico beginning in early November, relaxing bans that have been in place for more. 18 months.

Moderna proposes a smaller dose of its vaccine

As the U.S. approved booster doses of the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine for some vulnerable Americans, and officials are weighing approval of the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson boosters, Moderna on Tuesday urged the FDA to authorize a dose of 50 micrograms, according to documents released before a key meeting.

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The company said this dose increases protection against the coronavirus while helping to maintain a greater supply of vaccines around the world.

That dose is half the size of the 100 microgram doses used in the primary series of the two-dose vaccine.

Moderna requests authorization for the smallest dose at least six months after the second dose for certain groups: people 65 years and older;

people aged 18 to 64 who are at high risk of severe COVID-19;

and people aged 18 to 64 whose exposure to the coronavirus in their environments or work puts them at risk of complications from Covid-19 or serious illnesses.

This Thursday, the FDA's independent vaccine advisers are expected to discuss and vote on whether to recommend the authorization of boosters for the Moderna vaccine.

This Friday, advisers are scheduled to discuss and vote on whether to recommend authorization of boosters for Johnson & Johnson's vaccine.

Both vaccines are already licensed for use in people over 18 years of age.

Members of VRBPAC will also hear a presentation Friday on "mix and match" booster doses.

CNN's Naomi Thomas, Deidre McPhillips, Julian Cummings, Rosalina Nieves, and Jamie Gumbrecht contributed to this report.


Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2021-10-14

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