A wind of panic has been blowing for several months on the world markets: the recovery is accompanied by significant shortages.
Which products are affected and for what reasons?
Le Figaro
takes stock.
Shoes are missing, clothes threatened
The strong recovery in world trade, coupled with disorganized supply chains, is causing tensions in the clothing and footwear market.
Result: delays in delivery and increased costs are at the rendezvous for the brands.
For entry-level shoes from Asia, "
only 30 to 40% of the references are delivered to certain brands
" explains Yohan Petiot, Managing Director of Alliance Commerce, a professional organization in personal equipment. .
"
The situation is not yet so worrying for clothing, but it could well become
."
Read also Covid, Brexit: the United Kingdom in the trap of shortages
“
In China, factories and ports close with every Covid case. In addition, production is also interrupted by power cuts due to the energy crisis,
”explains Yohan Petiot. The supply is therefore very complicated. The prices could also get carried away because maritime transport has seen its cost increase drastically: "
The
container
transport that we paid on average 1500 to 3000 dollars usually, we pay 15 to 20 000 dollars today
" explains Yohan Petiot.
Large companies in the sector are already expecting an impact of the shortages on their sales. Nike has revised its growth prospects down sharply, to 5%, while Adidas is forecasting a loss of 500 million euros. Sneakers, especially made in Asia, are particularly affected, while leather shoes are more frequently made in Europe. H&M also acknowledged that it was unable to meet all requests. On the side of Primark, the difficulties are present but the sign wants to reassure its customers with the approach of Christmas. “
Although supply chain disruptions cause delays in some categories, they have no
significant impact on the stock for the moment ”reports a spokesperson for the group.
One-off stock-outs in furniture and household appliances
In furniture, Ikea sounded the alarm at the end of September by announcing that 20% of the references were missing in the French shelves, both on small accessories and furniture. “
It wasn't easy. Keeping the Ikea stores and warehouses open has been difficult. During the financial year 2021 we observed a substantial drop in the availability
”of products, recognizes Ikea, according to AFP. "
We are not yet out of it and this will continue for a long time to come in fiscal year 2022,
" the furniture giant also specified. Shortages of truck drivers and raw materials make it difficult to meet delivery deadlines.
The Secretary General of the French Federation of Home Furnishings and Equipment, Jean Charles Vogley, recognizes occasional supply tensions. However, "
80% of the external supply of furniture in France comes from Europe, which limits the risk of shortages
" explains the director general of the FNAEM. The return to normal in the timber market should also soon facilitate end-of-chain supply.
On the household appliance side, the situation is more tense because production depends on electronic components produced in Asia and for which supply times are lengthening.
But Jean-Charles Vogley nuances: if maritime transport remains disorganized and the situation very volatile, he does not expect "
frank and massive ruptures
".
The observation is similar for Boulanger who confides, however, to be "
inevitably impacted by delivery delays
" but who assures him: "
there will be gifts under the tree, and in all categories
".
Consoles and iPhone are trickling down
Electronic devices may also be lacking. Smartphones, tablets, computers, televisions, video game consoles: the pressures on supplies are increasing. Apple could produce only 80 million iPhones instead of the 90 expected for this quarter, at the risk of disappointing many customers. Customers who ordered an iPhone 13 at the end of September, as soon as it was released, still have not received it. Sony's flagship PlayStation 5 is hitting stores in dribs and drabs, and no massive deliveries are planned for the holiday season.
The manufacturers of televisions, computers, confess in a nutshell about the supply difficulties. Screen sizes are running out, some computer references are no longer available ... and it is often impossible to know when the products ordered will arrive. “
Every morning I get a list of missing products. Each time, there are fifteen to twenty references with delivery delays of one week to one month,
”testifies the spokesperson for a major Asian brand. Part of these delays are attributable to the global shortage of semiconductors, the essential building blocks of all electronic devices. To which must be added the closures of factories due to Covid in sensitive countries such as Vietnam.
Waiting for bikes, on some models
Bicycles are also subject to stock shortages, because in addition to the difficulties affecting world trade, the enthusiasm for cycling is exceptional.
“
The pandemic has created many upheavals: shutdown or slowdown of production or transport companies, changes in consumption, sudden increase in e-commerce, congestion of freight routes, etc.
», Explains Decathlon in particular.
"
These disturbances are so important that their correction will take a long time
."
A bicycle is made from around 80 parts ordered from specialist companies.
If one of these parts is missing, the delivery of the bike is immediately affected.
"
For certain models, the most popular, the delivery time of certain components can now exceed 500 days ”
, according to Decathlon. But the group took its precautions: "
Decathlon reacted quickly by anticipating orders for 2021 from May 2020
", stocks have therefore made it possible to avoid excessive delays even if "
certain products may be subject to a few days of waiting depending on the model
”.
Same strategy for Marc Simoncini and his company of "intelligent bikes" Angell, which has built up stocks for even longer term: "
As soon as we saw the shortage coming, we made stocks for two years, ready to be assembled
" . "
We therefore have no shortages at the moment and we were able to make up for our months of delay at the onset of the crisis
." These high-end bikes, assembled from 400 to 600 parts, are more exposed to the ups and downs of international trade and therefore require early anticipation. For Virgile Caillet, General Delegate of Union Sport et Cycle, “
there are tensions, especially on components produced in Japan, but in the first half of 2021 we sold more bikes than in 2020, so production follows.
".
In the future, however, questions may arise about the relocation of component manufacturing.
Sporting goods and ski equipment soon affected?
Like all manufactured products, sporting goods could become scarce on the shelves.
Snowshoes and sports shoes are particularly concerned.
"
Before Christmas, we risk having supply difficulties
" underlines Virgile Caillet, general delegate of Union Sport et Cycle.
"
Weak signals are starting to appear, stocks are tightening,
" he explains.
As for mountain items, traders are taking advantage of stocks built up over the past few years which could not be sold with the closure of the ski lifts during the various waves of the pandemic. "
For alpine skiing, the equipment has already been in stores for a year, orders were therefore low this year and the tensions in international trade have not affected ski equipment
" explains Brice Blancard, mountain manager at the Union Sport and Cycle. “
Touring skis, sledges, etc. which have been used extensively in the absence of alpine skiing, should also not be a problem despite the increase in demand
»: Here too, stocks are made.
However, there is concern about the restocking at the start of the year.
Visibility is lower at the start of 2022 and traders could be faced with tensions on their stocks, specifies Union Sport et Cycle.
Toys, "
a disruptive market
"
One-off breaks from the most popular toys are a classic in the industry as Christmas approaches.
But this year, they should be a little more numerous than usual.
“
There will be toys under the tree
, reassures Philippe Gueydon, the boss of King Jouet,
but perhaps not all the usual references.
»20% of the toys listed in the manufacturer's Christmas catalog are still missing in stores.
Most will eventually ship, but some will be harder to find.
Thus, toys containing electronic products, in shortage, or those made in Asia.
For example, a large distributor did not receive as many Barbie Color Reveal Fête as they wanted.
He will compensate for the missing dolls with an approaching Barbie model… Which may frustrate some children.
Faced with the risk of breakages, "
consumers should start their purchases earlier in the season
" anticipates Christophe Drevet, Director General of the Federation of Toys and Childcare.
Read alsoShortage of toys in sight at the foot of the Christmas tree
For JouéClub spokesperson Franck Mathais, the tensions are explained by the recovery in global activity and the rise in commodity prices creating tensions in deliveries from China combined with the explosion in sea freight prices. While 57% of toys sold in France are made in China, the logistical disorganization is today what creates crowds and penalizes distributors "
who did not anticipate
".
For the spokesperson of JouéClub, the orders anticipated by the sign (20% more stocks in store), can be enough to avoid the shortages.
The question remains that of the final selling price for consumers, very low according to Franck Mathais thanks to higher costs absorbed by manufacturers and distributors.
For the spokesperson, the specificity of the toy market is that it is, in fact "
a disruptive market
", punctuated by the trends of successful toys for children, which are not always correlated with the dates of sale. production (before summer) and the first deliveries for the start of sales in October.
Paper, but at what cost?
Rising prices, reduced stocks, "
all consumer products are concerned,
" confirms the general delegate of Copacel, the French Confederation of the paper, cardboard and cellulose industry. Paper for the press, packaging, bags, hygiene products ... so many products pressurized by a combination of factors. That of the post-Covid economic recovery with strong demand for consumer products which encounter: a problem of plant closures (faced with a structural decline in demand for paper), an increase in production and transport costs and delivery times that drive up prices.
As with the prices of food products sold in supermarkets, the impact on the consumer's basket is now based on annual negotiations between suppliers and distributors in early November.
While Essity, which markets Lotus and Okay toilet paper, confided to Figaro “
a + 67% increase in pulp prices for 8 months and a + 50% increase in the cost of packaging over the same period,
the delegate General de Copacel believes that this "
price
increase
will probably continue until 2022
".
Shortage of boilers, but without impact on emergency response
Winter is approaching and France is running out of boilers. "
It takes between two and three months to have a boiler replaced, in the best case, against 48 hours in normal times
" says Cyril Radici, secretary general of Synasav, which represents companies offering equipment and maintenance services. boilers and other heating equipment. Households first rushed to change their boilers inexpensively before the end of the EEC boost for heating and insulation, which allows individuals to benefit from aid to finance their energy renovation work. “
Boiler manufacturers thus saw their order forms increase by 30 to 40% before the summer.
», According to Jean-Paul Ouin, general delegate of Uniclima, which represents 98% of boiler manufacturers.
The factories are therefore struggling to keep up and some companies are struggling to source boilers.
On the supply side, raw materials are also lacking: "
The situation is easing on the side of metals, but the breakdowns of electronic components persist
" explains the general delegate of Uniclima.
Today, boilers and heat pumps are in fact equipped with control systems which require semiconductors, which have been in voltage for many months.
To cope with these difficulties, the unions in the sector then obtained from the government the postponement of the end of EEC aid. While households initially had to finish their renovation work before September 30 to benefit from the aid, they finally have until December 31, in order to give businesses time to catch up on the installation of boilers. The union reassures, however, before winter: “
There is no risk of ending up without a boiler. For emergency interventions, we do what is necessary with the equipment at our disposal
”. Another area of concern is the lack of manpower, which could, even if the products are available, slow down the pace of installations.
For DIY enthusiasts, the situation is improving on materials
On construction sites and for DIY enthusiasts on Sundays, the situation has also been tense for several months and the French who have embarked on construction or renovation are experiencing longer delays.
However, the building has observed improvements in the supply of raw materials which should soon be felt by customers: "
There is no longer any real shortage but prices remain very high
" explains Olivier Salleron, president of the French Building Federation. .
"
The problem today concerns more manufactured products such as boilers, but less materials,
" he continues.
In terms of materials, the improvement is first observed for wood. “
Every day the situation relaxes. The last links in the chain (distributors and consumers, editor's note) should soon feel the recovery
”confides Nicolas Douzain, general delegate of the National Federation of Timber. The situation has also improved for plaster in recent weeks and delivery times have only been extended by a few days according to Christine Muscat, president of the National Union of Plaster Industries, with concern however for the beginning of the year, period to which companies replenish their stocks. The same goes for metals where the situation is improving on steels, copper and iron. "
For aluminum, however, the distortion between demand and capacity has not yet been resolved.
It is therefore necessary to wait on average 5 months to obtain the product ordered against 3 months in normal times
”, explains David Robert, general delegate of the French Federation of Metals.
If the shortage is not current on other metals, tensions remain due to the lack of road carriers who often lengthen delivery times.
Food that is always on
For the ANIA, the National Association of Food Products, it is not a question of "
food shortages
" but of "
great pressures on prices to which are added the global problems of transport and logistics
". A surge in prices which can be explained by the cumulative increase of 5 to 51% in food raw materials, from 3% to 59% for industrial raw materials (product packaging) and the explosion in transport of nearly 86% for sea freight. Among the food products subject to a very strong increase in prices this year, the Ania barometer of September 2021 points out in particular: wheat (+ 26%), oils (+ 39%), sugar (+ 14%), fruits (+ 34%) or even poultry (+ 23%).
Read alsoHike in the price of agricultural raw materials: are manufacturers benefiting from it?
Fruits (+ 34%):
the National Federation of Fruit Producers confirms a drop in volumes, especially French summer fruits such as apricots and peaches, as a direct consequence of the frost episodes in April.
The increase in sea freight, the vagaries of the weather and low stocks explain the surge in prices and have an impact on processed products.
The National Interprofessional Union of Fruit Juices is alarmed by soaring prices and discounted stocks, in particular for apricots, peaches, red fruits, pears and grapes.
Wheat (+ 26%):
According to the AGPB, the increase in the price of wheat is explained by the law of the market and the vagaries of the weather with as a starting point this year, unfavorable climatic conditions for the world's largest wheat producer hard: Canada. The boom in wheat is also inseparable from the very strong Chinese demand and the rise in energy prices (gas, electricity, etc.) which impact both transport and agricultural production.
Coffee (+ 52% over the last eight months according to the International Coffee Organization):
for the Coffee Committee, it is not a question of shortages but of concerns about prices.
Fears stemming from the uncertainty over the Brazilian harvests (the world's largest producer) impacted by the frost episodes in April and the increase in freight costs coupled with the problems of trade flows in Asia.
