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(CNN) -
The House Select Committee investigating the Capitol uprising is sending an aggressive message to Donald Trump's former political guru Steve Bannon and the former president himself.
But by advancing the arrest of Bannon, the architect of Trump's nationalist populism, in criminal contempt for refusing to comply with a subpoena, the panel may be providing the mastermind of Trump's blow-it-up strategy one more platform to try to bring down. the institutions of the United States.
The action that will unfold next week against the former president's ideological soulmate is intended to be a warning sign for those in Trump's broader orbit.
And the chairman of the Jan.6 commission, Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson, warned on CNN that no one is "off limits" to being forced to testify, including Trump himself.
The panel is determined to use every possible method to find the truth about the preparations of a pro-Trump mob that stormed the Capitol on January 6.
But the commission's efforts may also end up emphasizing a dark truth revealed by Trump's time in power, which is a growing threat to the future, too, as he relentlessly attacks America's democratic institutions ahead of a possible run for office. the White House in 2024.
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Attempts to hold the former president's inner circle accountable often fall short and end up having the unintended effect of further politicizing vital government institutions, a central goal of Trumpism and one that Bannon has long embodied.
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This commission's effort will face exactly the same kind of obstruction and intransigence as previous investigations into the former commander-in-chief designed to subject him to the checks and balances of the US constitutional system.
In a broader sense, the upcoming legal duel will also underscore how the constitutional promise of oversight has been constantly shattered by Trump both in and out of power.
Bannon has never made a secret of his desire to tear down the rules set by the Washington establishment, so he can enjoy the challenge and the opportunity to launch a celebrated political cause.
Jan.6 panel prepares to file criminal charges as Steve Bannon faces a subpoena deadline
Doing so will demonstrate once again that once powerful figures who choose to challenge the normal limits of political behavior (and in Trump's case, the rule of law itself) often find that they can operate with some degree of discretion. impunity.
In Trump's case, for example, not even the historic stain of two impeachment processes turned out to be a deterrent to aberrant behavior and abuses of power, a reality that raises questions about the resistance of the Constitution against presidents with autocratic tendencies.
If nothing else, this latest clash between Trump and the norms that have long governed US political life underscores how desperate the former president is, for whatever reason, to hide what really happened on January 6.
And while he tries to hide the truth of what happened in the last election, his behavior is offering a foreboding preview of how he could act in a second term, if he were to win the 2024 election.
The Democratic-led panel wants to find out what Bannon and others around Trump were saying to him before he incited a mob to invade the Capitol based on his lies about voter fraud.
At this time, it has not been suggested that Bannon has committed a crime.
But his claim that his reported contacts with Trump earlier this year are covered by executive privilege (which allows a president to receive confidential advice from his subordinates) is viewed by many legal scholars as spurious as Bannon, fired as a consultant. from the White House in 2017, he did not have any government jobs under Trump at the time.
The tactic, therefore, is presented as an attempt to obstruct a legally constituted Congressional investigation into one of the worst attacks on democracy in US history.
Trump has shattered accountability
As an example of how Trump will try to politicize the latest twist in history on January 6, the former president released a statement on Thursday demanding that the "non-election committee" should "declare itself in criminal contempt for cheating in the elections. "and accused prosecutors of trying to destroy half the country. And he added: "The people will not tolerate it." So, more than six months later, the former president takes advantage of the new attempts to hold him to account as an opportunity to continue inciting.
Throughout Trump's tenure, the White House resisted congressional oversight role and requests for documents and testimony at almost all times.
In the past, some administrations and political leaders have often tried to come to terms with investigations like that of the January 6 commission, one of the reasons why criminal referrals have been comparatively rare of late.
But that's not Trump's style.
He proved as a businessman and celebrity, even before entering politics, that he would push conventions and the rule of law to breaking point.
What if Trump returned to power in the United States?
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"What we've seen in recent years is a complete disregard for the subpoena power of Congress," Kim Wehle, a professor at the University of Baltimore School of Law, said on CNN's "Newsroom" show Thursday.
In addition to being an echo of the excesses of the previous administration, Bannon's agreeing with what appears to be a weak argument of executive privilege put forward by Trump's lawyers contains a warning for the future about even more autocratic behavior. if the former president is able to get behind the desk in the Oval Office again.
Therefore, the commission of January 6 does not have much time to act.
What is likely to be a protracted and possibly unfinished legal battle with Bannon could extend into the midterm elections, when a possible new Republican majority in the House of Representatives in January 2023 could simply close the investigation before it has a chance to inking an official record for the story about the January 6 outrage.
Therefore, Bannon's strategy looks a lot like an attempt to make the clock tick.
A case against Bannon could take "years
The select committee of the House of Representatives is scheduled to meet Tuesday night to begin the referral process, which will require a vote by the full House.
The attorney for the District of Columbia will then be referred to the next steps.
Given the deeply political nature of the case, it will almost certainly be up to US Attorney General Merrick Garland to decide whether to initiate a criminal case against Bannon.
Stanley Brand, a former general counsel in the House of Representatives, said on CNN's "Newsroom" Thursday that the process ahead is fraught with hurdles and is not guaranteed to produce the outcome the committee expects.
"The story of this is not so easy for Congress," said Brand, who was a House general counsel in 1983, the last time he referred a criminal contempt case to the Justice Department.
"And while they can, in a sense, snort, until they get a conviction and a final sentence, it could be years," Brand said.
Thompson, the Mississippi Democrat who chairs the Jan.6 select commission, made clear that his panel, which includes two Republicans, is trying to set an example with Bannon by taking the comparatively rare step of making a criminal referral to the Department of Justice.
"We believe Steve Bannon has information that relates to what happened on January 6," Thompson told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on "The Situation Room."
"If he refuses the subpoena as we hope he will continue to do so, we have no choice but to ask the Justice Department to lock him up and hold him in contempt. Clearly, that could send a sufficient message for him to agree to speak with us," he warned .
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Asked if the commission could subpoena Trump, Thompson replied: "No one is off limits."
Bannon's resistance does not leave the commission toothless.
Several other Trump acolytes, including former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows and former Pentagon official Kash Patel, are "pledging" to the commission (and the panel agreed to brief postponements of their appearances), though It remains unclear whether that contact amounts to some form of cooperation.
They may find the prospect of a criminal referral more problematic, even though Trump's lawyers have already claimed that their deliberations with him are covered by executive privilege.
And the commission has already heard from former acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen, who served in the tumultuous final days of the Trump administration when the then-president tried to thwart Joe Biden's victory in the presidential election on multiple fronts.
ANALYSIS |
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But even as the commission moves forward, the time is nearing the midterm elections in November 2022, which could spell the eventual demise of the investigation.
Multiple lengthy legal actions, like the one involving Bannon, could hamper his ability to get all the facts.
According to Wehle, a law professor, that would be a "tragedy for democracy itself and the American people, frankly."
Attack on Capitol HillDonald TrumpSteve Bannon