Somewhat more stable, but still shaky - this is how the overall economic situation in Lower Saxony could be described in summer.
But new risks have arisen since the last economic survey.
How do the companies in the country see their current situation and the next few months?
Hanover - Lower Saxony's economy is not very confident for the coming months despite the relaxed corona rules.
According to the latest economic survey, only 19 percent of the companies expect a more favorable development - significantly less than in the previous quarter (25 percent).
The current situation was assessed somewhat more positively.
On the other hand, 22 percent of the companies are preparing for worse business conditions in the near future, as the chamber umbrella association IHKN announced on Friday in Hanover.
Most recently, 17 percent had said this.
Meanwhile, a majority of 60 (previous quarter: 58) percent of the companies surveyed in the country do not see any major changes.
Overall, the situation remains tense. Supply chain problems are particularly troubling for industry, important supplies such as microchips as well as some metal and construction raw materials are in short supply. That means expensive underutilization of capacities and short-time work. At the same time, many companies lack qualified personnel. And inflation - especially in the case of energy, has now reached a high for many years - threatens to stifle consumption and investment. The demand after the tough Corona year 2020 had just recovered somewhat.
The clouding of the mood when looking ahead meant that the overall index for the economic climate in Lower Saxony fell by three points to 111 points. Leading economic research institutes have also just lowered their economic forecasts for the whole of Germany this year. Instead of a growth of 3.7 percent - as assumed in the spring - they now expect an increase in gross domestic product of an estimated 2.4 percent.
"The situation after 18 months of Corona is not as good as it could be," said IHKN managing director Maike Bielfeldt. “Many companies would like to produce more, but have no preliminary products. And many are looking for staff, mostly skilled workers, sometimes assistants who just lend a hand. That slows the economy. "Especially the tourism and gastronomy, which are important in the northwest, no longer get enough people, which can destroy at least part of the better business thanks to the relaxation of the Corona.
If you only refer to the assessment of the circumstances here and now, many of the responses from the companies surveyed are somewhat more positive. 37 percent consider the current business situation to be good and 11 percent to be bad, while 52 percent are more or less satisfied. According to the chambers, an upswing is noticeable for the industry as a whole. However, automobile construction, of all things, which is particularly important for Lower Saxony, is an exception: “Whole plants are at a standstill again” - just like at the beginning of the pandemic.
In the construction industry, which had survived relatively well even in 2020, there were mixed feelings: “The business situation could hardly be better if it weren't for the lack of materials and, in particular, the lack of staff.” In retail, the mood depends on the product range.
Business is difficult in traffic, and there are also no drivers in Germany.
With a view to the coalition soundings, Bielfeldt referred to concerns that a higher minimum wage could “lead to distortions in the wage structure and cost increases in parts of the economy”.
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From the perspective of experts, the picture on the labor market is getting brighter.
The recovery course will continue in 2022, believes the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) of the Federal Employment Agency.
The expected decline in unemployment in Lower Saxony is likely to be 8.9 percent, slightly below the value in some other countries - for Bremen, for example, 11.5 percent fewer unemployed are assumed.
One cause: it was possible to limit the consequences for the job market in Lower Saxony more strongly during the acute virus crisis.
dpa