The uncertainty is total.
With less than six months of the presidential election, the poster for the second round has never been so indecisive.
According to the latest Ifop Fiducial poll for Le Figaro and LCI carried out with a sample of 5,000 people, if Emmanuel Macron retains the leadership, with between 25 and 27% of the voting intentions, the gaps between his pursuers are narrowing.
Presidential 2022: where are the candidates in the polls?
The candidate of the National Rally, Marine Le Pen, retains for the moment the second position - between 17 and 18.5%, according to the candidate of the right - but is followed very closely by the quasi-candidate Éric Zemmour, who totals between 16 and 17%. Regardless of the personality tested, all potential Republican candidates are ranked fourth. Xavier Bertrand, with 15%, seems for the moment the most able to compete with Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour, far ahead of Valérie Pécresse (10%) or Michel Barnier (8%). “
This uncertainty is unprecedented, since Le Pen, Zemmour and Bertrand are held in three points and close to the front door of the second round. It is a real ideological victory for the right and the far right.
», Judge Frédéric Dabi, General Manager Opinion of Ifop.
Zemmour is still making progress
The strongest progression is to the credit of the essayist Éric Zemmour. While he was credited with 7% of voting intentions in early September and 12% a fortnight ago, he is now almost on a par with Marine Le Pen and now exceeds all possible candidates from the right. “
It is a symbolic milestone and it is completely new for someone who is not from the political seraglio and has not even registered his candidacy yet. The dynamic is clearly on its side, it is becoming the catch-all of the right and the far right
, ”Judge Frédéric Dabi. The polemicist actually progresses in all categories of the population. "
He stands out as a third man who comes to capture the people of the right
", decrypts Frédéric Dabi.
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Macron firmly installed in the lead
Over the course of the polls, if the positions of the various candidates evolve, that of Emmanuel Macron remains stable, even on the rise.
The head of state, who was at 24% of voting intentions at the beginning of September in a scenario where Xavier Bertrand would be the right-wing candidate, today totals 25% of the votes in the same configuration.
He is above his score in the first round in 2016, with at least eight points ahead of the second.
Its base is extremely solid,
”testifies the Director General of Ifop's opinion.
The President of the Republic is the preferred candidate of young people, but also of the elderly and senior executives.
It is an electorate of France which is doing rather well and which is mobilized in the elections.
70% of the people who voted for him in 2017 still support him and he captures 22% of the voters of François Fillon,
”notes Frédéric Dabi.
The left in great difficulty
For its part, the left remains more divided than ever.
And none of the candidates seems to have gained the upper hand for the moment.
For now, the best placed remains the leader of France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with 8% of the voting intentions.
Behind, the ecologist Yannick Jadot, with 7%, and the socialist Anne Hidalgo between 5 and 5.5%, do not take off.
Arnaud Montebourg (The Commitment) is credited with 1.5 to 2% of the potential votes, and Fabien Roussel (Communist Party) has between 1.5 and 2% of the possible votes.
The left has never been so weak. When you add up, all the left-wing candidates are around 25%, while 42% of the French say they tend to be on the left. It is no longer even a floor, it is a cellar,
”analyzes Frédéric Dabi. Only 37% of those who voted for the leader of France Insoumise in 2017 intend to give him their vote in 2022. The other left-wing candidates are not doing better. “
Anne Hidalgo does not evolve, she does not even manage to capture the electorate of Benoît Hamon. Yannick Jadot does not have a strong oscillation. It is not clear where their electoral reserves are or what path these candidates could take to create a dynamic,
”concludes Frédéric Dabi.
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