Severe Weather | Why does the government put the Observatory under the pressure of being "washed"?

"Isn't the observatory that should be reorganized the most?" "Why is the observatory subordinate to the Bureau of Commerce and Economics instead of being assigned to the Bureau of Environment?"-Within a few days, tropical storm "Lion Mountain" and typhoon "Compasses" struck one after another Hong Kong and the Hong Kong Observatory have also hoisted the "Typhoon Signal No. 8", but many people are not satisfied with the arrangement, and even flocked to the Observatory's Facebook page to "wash the version", questioning that it did not emit red or black in time when the rain was strong. The rainstorm warning signal, and the "No. 8 Gale or Storm Signal" is hoisted for a long time when the wind is not too strong, causing serious inconvenience to everyone in school, work, and travel.

Suddenly, the irony of "Lee's Force Field" was brought up again. It was believed that it was precisely because the Observatory was subordinate to the Bureau of Commerce and Economics that it would often override scientific decision-making with economic benefits. Therefore, the SAR government was asked to re-examine the government structure by "reorganizing the government structure." Ownership of the observatory-but this is probably not a question of which decision-making department the observatory should belong to.

The tropical storm "Lion Rock" and the typhoon "Compasses" hit Hong Kong one after another, and the Observatory also hoisted the "Typhoon Signal No. 8". However, many people were not satisfied with the arrangement.

(Photo by Xia Jialang)

"Black Rain" was sent too late, and "No. 8" was hanging for too long?

At 11:20pm last Thursday (October 7), the tropical cyclone "Lion Rock" cross-current and the northeast monsoon have a common effect, leaving Hong Kong in a "multiplex area" and being affected by the outer thunderstorm belt. The rain and wind continued to be strong and the Observatory issued the "Amber Rainstorm Warning".

At 4:40 am the next day (October 8), the "Lion Rock" approached the coast of Guangdong, the Observatory issued the "Strong Wind Signal No. 3", and 20 minutes later the "Lion Rock" was upgraded to a tropical storm.

However, although the weather is not optimistic, these two "warnings" and "signals" may be commonplace for the general public. After all, Hong Kong is at the forefront of typhoons in South China, and violent storms are not uncommon, so People go to work and school as usual after dawn.

However, after going out, many people began to realize that the situation was not right, because the rain was obviously much violent than expected, and the roads in many areas were even flooded, causing many students, parents and workers to be soaked and embarrassed.

At 10:14 in the morning, a scaffold collapse accident occurred on Happy Valley Road, Happy Valley, hitting two private cars passing by and seven workers on the construction site nearby. One of the female workers was sent to the hospital for rescue. Died.

It was not until 11:20 and 11:45 in the morning that the Observatory issued the "Red Rainstorm Warning" and "Black Rainstorm Warning" respectively. However, people flocked to the Observatory Facebook to "wash the version" and complain that it was "posted too late." It caused a lot of inconvenience to everyone, and indirectly caused casualties.

The rain continued for a whole day. It was not until 5:45 pm that the Observatory changed the "yellow rainstorm warning" and cancelled all rainstorm warning signals at 7:25 pm.

However, the "crisis" has not been lifted because the wind on the "Lion Rock" has further strengthened after nightfall, and it is sometimes affected by the outer squally rain belt. As of 4:40 in the morning of last Saturday (October 9), the Observatory issued the "Warning" first. Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal No. 8", and the "No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal" was issued two hours later.

What’s interesting is that I don’t know if the Observatory was "scolded" by netizens. Although it had predicted at 8:45 in the morning that the wind on the "Lion Rock" would slow in the afternoon, it would consider issuing the "No. 3 Strong Wind Signal" at that time, but and Later, the Observatory changed its mouth several times and postponed it until 4:40 am the next day (October 10) that the "Typhoon Signal No. 3" was officially changed.

However, the public were also not satisfied with this arrangement, and once again flooded into the Observatory's Facebook to "wash the version". They generally believed that the wind force was limited and it was not enough to hoist the "Typhoon Signal No. 8" for a long time.

Many netizens believe that the "Lion Rock" has limited wind power and is not enough to hoist the "Typhoon Signal No. 8" for a long time.

(Facebook picture)

"Isn't the government department that should be reorganized the most not the observatory?"

Not long before (October 6), Chief Executive Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor just released the last "policy address" during his term, which proposed "reorganization of the government structure", including the establishment of the "Cultural Sports and Tourism Bureau" and the spin-off of the "Transport and Housing Bureau" , Expand the "Innovation and Technology Bureau" to the "Innovation Technology and Industry Bureau", and reorganize the "Home Affairs Bureau" to the "Regional Affairs Bureau".

In such an atmosphere of discussion, there was a dispute that the "Black Rain" was issued too late and the "No. 8" was hung for too long. The Observatory under the "Commerce and Economic Development Bureau" naturally could not escape the public's teasing. Netizens who often use economic interests to override scientific judgments and dominate weather signals have sarcastically pointed out, “Isn’t the government department that should be reorganized the most? Isn’t the Observatory?” Even the New Democratic Party Executive Council member and Legislative Council member Ye Liu Shuyi also suggested that the Observatory should call the Observatory. Owned by the Environment Bureau.

However, the problem is probably not so simple.

Since the establishment of the Observatory in 1883, its original purpose was to "serve exclusively for mariners" to establish Hong Kong's leading position as a trade entrepot, and then slowly expand the high-altitude weather and earthquake monitoring; until the end of the "World War II", it was seriously damaged The Observatory was first taken over by the Royal Navy and the Royal Air Force, and then returned to the British Hong Kong government in May 1946 and incorporated into the Economics Section of the Auxiliary Department. Afterwards, it was adjusted to serve the public in accordance with changes in social structure and the challenges of natural disasters. Popular with the public.

Even in the recent years when the SAR government has lost its prestige in governance, the "Observatory" is still regarded as one of the government departments recognized by the public. However, when the wind and rain come, the Observatory sometimes fails to issue No. 8 or above as the public wishes. The cyclone warning signal, as if in a disguised form, made everyone lose one day of "fighting the wind or typhoon." People will direct their anger and spear at the big businesses and the observatory. In the early years, they even created the term "Lee's force field" to ridicule the observatory. Compressed by the richest man Li Ka-shing.

Although the "Li's force field" is nonsense that cannot be verified at the moment, the dissatisfaction of the public is not incomprehensible.

First, since the British colonial period, Hong Kong has gradually established a set of "natural disaster response management" covering typhoons and rainstorms. For example, when the Observatory issued a "black rainstorm warning" or "Tropical Cyclone Signal No. 8 or above", public and private organizations usually Will announce a temporary suspension of work so that citizens can stay in a safe place to take shelter. On the

Secondly,

.

For example, from August 2 to 3, 2006, the typhoon "Paibian" struck Hong Kong. At that time, hurricanes blown offshore and hurricanes blew on high ground. The wind force was once comparable to that of Typhoon Dujuan, which required the hoisting of the "Typhoon No. 9" in 2003. As a result, 630 tree collapse accidents were caused, many scaffolds and signboards were blown down, severe traffic congestion occurred in many places, and 620 aircraft were affected. However, the Observatory has never issued the "No. 8 Gale or Storm Signal" Immediately aroused many questions. Fang Zhigang, director of the "Hong Kong Underground Observatory" and former academic director of the Observatory, even published "Did You Know The Observatory Deceived You?"

"The article directly refers to the observatory's concealment of facts and the disregard of the lives and deaths of the citizens.

The incident triggered calls for the reform of the tropical cyclone warning system. At the end of the same year, the Observatory finally reviewed the system and revised the suspension criteria for the "No. 3" and "No. 8" typhoon signals, expanding the number of wind measuring stations from Victoria Harbour to 8 capable of covering The wind measurement network composed of automatic weather stations near sea level for all winds in Hong Kong. As long as there are more than 4 recorded strong winds or 10-minute average wind speeds of the degree of gale, it is necessary to issue "No. 3 Strong Wind" or "No. 8 Gale/Storm" Warning sign.

However, the "system" will never catch up with the "change."

When "Paibian" struck Hong Kong, some passers-by were knocked down by a fallen trash can, but only the No. 3 strong wind signal was hoisted.

(Online screenshot)

It is not so much the "Lee's force field" that makes the effort, but the problem is the rigidity of the "bureaucratic system."

Therefore, whenever storms and winds blow, but citizens still have to work and commute in a mess of chaos, they will inevitably feel resentful towards the Observatory and even question its scientific authority.

However, the weather warning signal is "not as expected." It is not so much the "Li's force field" that the problem is caused by the rigidity of the "bureaucratic system"-thinking

Take the “Paibian Incident” mentioned above as an example. It is precisely because the Observatory clings to the old issuance criteria and believes that as long as the Kai Tak Automatic Weather Station in the Victoria Harbour fails to meet the “No. 8” signal standard, even if it is widely used throughout Hong Kong All areas were affected by the gale, and only the "Typhoon Signal No. 3" could be hoisted-completely unable to respond to the actual disaster situation.

The same is true for the "wash plate" triggered by the "Lion Rock". If the fixed "rainstorm warning signal" evaluation standard is used, it will be between 9:45 and 10:45 before the "red rainstorm warning" was issued by the Observatory on Friday morning. Although 9 of the 18 districts in Hong Kong have the highest rainfall exceeding 30 mm, none of them has reached the standard of rainfall exceeding 50 mm per hour required by the "Red Rain". The problem is that

, the Observatory has not been flexible to respond.

As for the "Typhoon Signal No. 8", which was obviously weaker but was hoisted for 22 hours last Saturday, it is also because the existing rating system often fails to cope with some unexpected situations. "No. 3 Strong Wind" is above but far from the level of "No. 8 Gale/Storm", but the Observatory only has the option of "No. 3" or "No. 8," which inevitably falls into a rather awkward situation, regardless of advancement or retreat. Will give the population reality.

Of course, the Observatory needs to break its solidified thinking and keep up with the times to review the evaluation standards and distribution criteria for severe weather in order to better protect the safety of life and property.

But having said that, as a science and technology department, the Observatory has four faculties—Science Director, Academic Director, Science Assistant, and Radar Mechanic. They are also responsible for different areas of professional work. The main task is to adhere to the principle of rationality to monitor meteorological changes. , Provide scientific analysis, and issue weather warnings. It is indeed difficult to expect them to be able to create independently like other government officials or accountable officials, so as to provide better services to the citizens.

But the problem is,

.

The day after the super typhoon "Mangkhut" crossed the border in 2018, East Rail services were blocked. A large number of people who caught up to work waited to board the train at Tai Wai Station. Many people were dissatisfied that the government had not announced the suspension of work in response to the actual situation.

(Profile picture)

Where are the accountable officials who should make the decision?

Most people might think that the Observatory is responsible for issuing weather warnings. When a storm comes, it will naturally dominate all aspects of response measures, but it is not the case.

For example, the "Natural Disaster Response Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), a guideline on the emergency response management of various government departments, public organizations and non-governmental organizations under natural disasters and serious accidents, is actually issued by the Security Bureau; and Whenever natural disasters such as typhoons come, the Emergency Support Team under the Security Bureau and relevant decision-making departments will conduct "pre-risk assessments" and send representatives to participate in the contingency plan; if there is a super typhoon, the Secretary for Security will discuss with the Observatory If necessary, report to the Chief Secretary for Administration, and then the Chief Secretary will consider whether to set up a steering committee to preside over the overall situation.

As for the "stop work suspension" arrangement that Hong Kong citizens are most concerned about, the "Plan" also mentions the basic responsibilities of the relevant decision-making departments.

For example, the Secretary for Education needs to consult the Observatory, the Drainage Services Department and the Police on weather, road and traffic conditions, and then decide whether and when schools including kindergartens should be closed.

However, in the actual implementation process, the Education Bureau seems to have not actively fulfilled its decision-making responsibilities. Instead, it is left to the school and parents to decide

on

. According to the "Tropical Cyclone and Continuous Heavy Rain Arrangements Applicable to Kindergartens and Day Schools" updated by the Education Bureau in April this year "Notice (hereinafter referred to as the "Arrangement"), when the Observatory issues "Red/Black Rainstorm Warning" or "Tropical Cyclone Warning No. 8 or above", the Education Bureau will announce the suspension of classes; but when the "Yellow Rainstorm Warning" or "Other Tropical Cyclone Warning" The Education Bureau allowed the school to make arrangements on its own and announce the suspension of classes when necessary; and after the Observatory issued the "Special Report on Flooding in Northern New Territories" and "Reminder of Heavy Rain in Some Areas", it was also left to the school to evaluate the impact on its own. Self-determination should be made on whether classes should be suspended and how students should be absent from work at their discretion. Moreover, the "Arrangement" also stipulates that "parents can decide whether to let their children go to school in response to bad weather conditions", that is, let parents protect their children's safety by themselves.

In addition to the "suspended class", the Labor and Welfare Bureau, which was supposed to be responsible for making decisions, is also "not very responsible" for the "stopped" arrangement.

The "Plan" only mentions, "In certain "extreme situations", such as large-scale power outages, extensive flooding, severe landslips and severe disruption of public transport services, employees should stop at their location after signal 8 is cancelled. For the specific operation, the "Code of Work under Typhoon and Rainstorm Warning" (hereinafter referred to as the "Code") issued by the Labour Department provides suggestions, but the "Code" "It does not have any legal effect, and the so-called suggestion in it is to let employers and employees prescribe "reasonable and practicable work arrangements" under inclement weather, but it does not make clear suspension requirements.

Take the "principle" of "Employers and Employees Negotiating the Most Suitable Arrangement" as an example. Although it is mentioned that "uniform work arrangements should not be adopted across the board, we should try our best to be considerate of the different situations that each employee may face, and consider the actual difficulties and The needs of employees should be handled with reasonableness and flexibility", but there are no clear indicators

what is meant by "practical difficulties", "employee needs", "comprehensiveness and rationality", "flexible handling", etc.-

The super typhoon "Mangkhut" caused 60,000 tree collapse incidents, and some citizens were prevented from going to work.

The incident triggered a second wave of creative creation, and "I want to rework" images appeared on the Internet.

(Picture of fb group "Taipo")

Postscript: Why is it necessary to say five thousand words for a trivial matter?

In mid-September 2018, the super typhoon "Mangkhut" struck Hong Kong. The Observatory once hoisted the "Typhoon Signal No. 10". The traffic system still did not return to normal the next day. The need to suspend train services from Tai Po Market Station to Sheung Shui Station resulted in many citizens dissatisfied that the government had not invoked the "Emergency Regulations Ordinance" Chapter 241 of the Laws of Hong Kong to announce the suspension of work (hereinafter referred to as the "Emergency Law"); Senior Counsel’s Executive Council member Tang Jiahua immediately retorted, “Is it possible for employers to go to jail and fines for rework of employees?”-After the “anti-revision law controversy” in 2019 and the “new crown virus epidemic” since 2020, I believe The society has fully felt the enormous power of the Emergency Law, and in any emergency, the Chief Executive can indeed formulate any regulations in the public interest in conjunction with the Executive Council.

However, Hong Kong does not need to dispatch the "Emergency Law", the "Sword of Honor" at every turn.

With reference to the "Guangdong Province Meteorological Disaster Prevention Regulations" officially implemented by the Guangdong Provincial Government in March 2015, it clearly states that during the period when the typhoon yellow, orange, red, or rainstorm red warning signal is in force, in addition to the staff who must be on duty, personnel should be employed Units should suspend work and class, and provide necessary measures to avoid danger for the on-duty or stranded personnel-offenders will be notified of criticism, and criminal responsibility will be pursued.

For example, when the "comparison" strikes on the front desk of the day, the Guangdong provincial authorities immediately took measures to require local governments to "use high probability thinking to deal with small probability events, and make every effort to ensure the safety of people's lives and property," and then decisively suspend work and classes in many places.

Some people may ask, why is it necessary to make a long discussion about this trivial matter?

Probably because there are typhoons every year and citizens complain every year, and this trivial matter is exactly the epitome of the poor governance of the SAR government—

The author is

Huang Yunna, the chief reporter