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Opinion | Hezbollah is in trouble, but this will not divert its view from Israel Israel today

2021-10-16T20:27:51.065Z


More and more Lebanese, even among Shiites, see Hezbollah as responsible for the crisis • But that will not stop it from maintaining the deterrence equation


In neighboring Lebanon, exchanges of fire in the streets between gangs or rival militias are a matter of routine.

Lebanon is a failed state, whose government - when it is finally established - lacks control and influence over the forces operating in it, led, of course, by Hezbollah.

After all, Lebanese politicians, including government ministers, are at the forefront of the militias raging in the streets.

The lack of governance serves their political and business interests, so there is no chance that they will act seriously to change this reality.

But even in Lebanese terms, the battles in the center of the capital Beirut were an exceptional event.

Not necessarily because of the use of machine guns and RPG missiles, but because the fire was directed at Hezbollah, the most important and powerful political and military force in the country today.

Hezbollah - and the Shiite Amal movement, which was dragged after it - took out its people to demonstrate demanding the dismissal of the investigating judge in the case of the ammonia warehouse explosion at the port of Beirut in August 2020. The blast killed hundreds, injured thousands and damaged billions of dollars.

Hezbollah is apparently afraid that the judge will point the finger at him, as it has been alleged in the past that the organization purchased the ammonium from the Revolutionary Guards of Iran, and its people turned parts of the port into ex-territory under their control.

As usual, Hezbollah is not afraid of the judicial authorities in Lebanon.

A few years ago, an international court ruled that Hezbollah was behind the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.

The organization ignored the ruling and nothing happened.

But the situation today is more sensitive for Hezbollah.

Lebanon is in an ongoing political and economic crisis, electricity and water supplies are fragmented, gas stations are running out of gas and pharmacies are running out of medicines.

In such a situation, more and more Lebanese, even among members of the Shiite community, see Hezbollah as responsible for the crisis and not someone who can help resolve it.

The barrier of fear of Hezbollah seems to have been broken.

Only a few months ago, the residents of the Druze village of Shuya near Hasbaya attacked Hezbollah members who fired missiles from the village's entrances at Israel.

They beat them vigorously and handed them over and the vehicle in which they were traveling to the Lebanese army.

It was, by the way, quick to hand them over to Hezbollah.

And yet, the atmosphere in Lebanon is not the same as it was on the eve of the civil war some 50 years ago.

No one is interested in war and no one is capable of a military confrontation with Hezbollah.

Most of the Christian public is in a comfortable marriage with the organization, while the Sunnis lack military power, leadership, and especially a desire to go into battle.

Nasrallah, for his part, was quick to label Lebanese forces as culprits.

This is an extremist-Maronite Christian sect that once belonged to the Phalangists, Israel's allies in the First Lebanon War.

Still, Hezbollah needs legitimacy and public support.

But as the Iraqi election, which has severely discriminated against pro-Iranian militias in the country, including Hezbollah-Iraq, shows that even among Shiites, criticism of those who cast their spells on Tehran is rising.

Hezbollah is in trouble, but this will not divert its view from Israel.

As in the past, he is not interested in a confrontation, but he is determined to preserve the equation of deterrence and not allow Israel to exploit its weakness.

After all, in his view, there is no contradiction between the clashes on the streets of Beirut and the preservation of the ability to launch missiles at Israel.

Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2021-10-16

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