The equation in Syria has changed - and the continuation of existing policies could ignite a fire Israel today

The report of the assassination of Madah Saleh, a former member of the Syrian parliament who lived in Majdal Shams, and previously served in the Israeli prison, is rekindling the debate over the war - the war between the two countries in Syria in recent years. Anyone wondering how long the Assad regime, its Iranian allies and other Islamist elements in Syria will allow the IDF to operate relatively freely, with no response that will ignite the entire region.

The fear is from a response by firing a steep trajectory at Israel, which will force it to respond and could set the region on fire.

According to reports from Syria and Lebanon, Saleh was shot from the ground in the Ein Athina area near Majdal Shams.

Israel declined to comment on reports of the assassination of Saleh, but he is considered an Iranian liaison in Syria who helped plan attacks against Israel.

If he was indeed assassinated by Israel, it is very likely that the intelligence indicated that he continued to engage in it even recently, and the defense establishment came to the conclusion that the best thing would be to eliminate him.

To thwart Saleh, who was apparently carried out from the ground, two more operations were added last week that were attributed to Israel and carried out from the air.

In the first operation, last Friday, it was reported that Israel was attacking in the area of ​​the Syrian T-4 airport, and it can be assumed that the attack was directed against a target of transferring weapons from Iran to Syria. 

Assault in Syria,

Saleh, 54, returned to Syria in 1998 after serving 12 years in an Israeli prison.

He was arrested in 1985 for underground activities against Israel in the Golan Heights, and after his release he crossed the border fence and was elected to the Syrian parliament as the Golan Heights' representative.

He was not considered a senior figure, but his assassination was supposed to severely damage the terrorist infrastructure he was trying to establish.  

"Extremely harsh response"

Last Wednesday late at night it was reported that the Syrian air defense systems were activated south of Tadmor in Homs district.

Additional reports indicated an attack on pro-Iranian militias in the Syrian-Iraqi border area, and the Syrian News Agency said there were casualties in the attack.

The unusual location of the attack indicates that it was apparently aimed at Iranian bases in Syria.

The fact that reports from Syria mentioned the al-Tanaf area indicates that there was probably also some American involvement in the attack, as there is still an American presence on Syrian soil in the area. 

The scene of the attack in the Syrian city of Homs last week,

Following the unusual attack, an extraordinary statement was issued by the "United Command Room of the Iranian militias", an organization behind Tehran and Hezbollah, in which it was stated, among other things, that they had decided to respond to the attack with a "very harsh" response. This may be another threat that will not be implemented, but in Israel it is taken seriously, and the level of alertness and alertness in various systems is being increased.

The two airstrikes attributed to Israel are part of the war between the two wars, the IDF, a secret campaign that Israel allegedly waged secretly with the aim of keeping the next war at bay. Governance in Syria is a convenient cushion for Israeli actions aimed at reducing threats, without the use of force leading to a large-scale conflict.

This reality has provided Assad over the years with a certain amount of denial, which has allowed him not to comment on the violation of his sovereignty.

As time went on, the Israeli became more sophisticated, and the defense establishment demonstrated an impressive intelligence and operational capability, which managed to significantly slow down the pace of Iran's establishment in Syria.

The concern: Assad will try to establish his sovereignty

But never resilience, and as time went on, the risks to Israeli freedom of action in Syria increased.

Thus, for example, the Russians who are invested in Syria up to the neck are not always satisfied with the Israeli activity, and from time to time disturbing reports emerge from Moscow on this matter.

The fact that Hezbollah is threatening in response to any damage to its people on Syrian soil reduces Israeli freedom of action, and last year the IDF found itself on more than 100 days of alert after an Nasrallah operative was killed in an attack attributed to Israel.

Bashar Assad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 2019, Photo: EP

Now the biggest threat to Israeli freedom of action in Syria stems from Syrian President Bashar Assad's attempt to regain control of the country.

Assad is interested in re-establishing his sovereignty in Syria, and as a result, among other things, has increased the firing of surface-to-air missiles at Israeli aircraft participating in the attacks, and the Air Force reports hundreds of missiles fired at Israeli aircraft each year.

It is not inconceivable that in the foreseeable future, whether as part of Assad's desire to regain control of Syria, or out of a desire by the Iranians to retaliate against the series of Israeli actions, one of the various elements in Syria will try to respond by firing into Israeli territory, launching unmanned aircraft or attacking Other.

Hezbollah battalion terrorists near a rocket in Syria,

One way or another, even if this time the threat does not materialize, it is worthwhile for Israel to recalculate its course, and analyze the continuation of the MBM policy in light of internal changes in Syria, and understanding that the continuation of the existing policy, intended to ward off war And drag escalation.