A government without a majority?
Thuringia is in a government crisis.
It is quite possible that it will stay that way for years, says Jena political scientist Torsten Oppelland in an interview with Merkur.de.
Erfurt / Jena - Even if the federal election and traffic light explorations recently covered the issue: a government crisis is smoldering in the middle of Germany - and has been for months. Since the CDU in Thuringia terminated a "stability mechanism" for the red-red-green government of Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow (left), there are no parliamentary majorities in sight in the Free State on Bavaria's northern border. Just as little as new elections. Because in Thuringia, too, should actually have been elected on September 26th - but not even for this plan was a reliable majority in the state parliament in the summer. Red-red-green canceled the idea. Continuous.
"Exciting times" also in Erfurt.
How can it go on for Ramelow and Co.?
The Jena political scientist Torsten Oppelland believes that years of “muddling through” the government are quite possible.
However, this would require a lot of unorthodox cooperation in the back room - also because the CDU has maneuvered itself into a difficult situation, as the expert
explains
in an interview with
Merkur.de
.
However, politics at the federal level could definitely still play a role.
Thuringia: Ramelow's red-red-green under pressure - "three years of muddling through" not impossible
The reason for the Thuringian misery is as banal as it is precarious: Left and AfD emerged from the 2019 election as the strongest forces in the Erfurt state parliament - together, both parties have over 50 percent of the mandates. Majorities only exist with either the left or the AfD. Now there are three blocks facing each other with red-red-green on the left, AfD on the far right and CDU and FDP in between. Every single one without a majority. This has not changed over the summer break either: "The Thuringian state parliament is still in a very, very difficult situation," says Oppelland.
Is there a way out or are there still new elections?
“I do not consider muddling through for the next three years to be ruled out,” explains the expert.
One way out could be the parliamentary fine print, which keeps options open despite the muddled situation - that is precisely why the talk of a Ramelow government incapable of action is “a bit over-pointed”, says Oppelland.
Thuringia: How Ramelow can govern without a majority - and why the CDU has maneuvered itself into a problem
After all, “an absolute majority is not necessary for every legislative act”. "As a rule, the majority of the votes cast is sufficient - and if a few MPs abstain, then the government is quite able to get majorities for individual projects," continues Oppelland. Of course, this would require agreements between red-red-green with the CDU or FDP. Presumably behind the scenes: “I suspect that such agreements would rather not be made in public. One would make sure beforehand that a few people would abstain from the opposition. "
Oppelland, however, currently considers more official variants, such as toleration, to be rather unlikely.
The fact that the situation is so difficult is also due to the recent course of the CDU in Thuringia: “The CDU maneuvered itself into a difficult situation when it terminated the stability mechanism.
Now it would look like falling over or breaking her word if she made a new agreement. "That does not mean that" unofficial solutions "with the participation of the Christian Democrats are excluded.
+
Urgent need for clarification: Bodo Ramelow and CDU parliamentary group leader Mario Voigt in the Thuringian state parliament.
© Jacob Schröter / www.imago-images.de
The expert sees a small "but" at the FDP.
If the traffic light works at the federal level, the willingness to cooperate could also increase in Thuringia, Oppelland said in an interview with
Merkur.de
.
Because with the SPD and the Greens, two of the possible Berlin coalition partners of the Liberals are also in the Thuringian government.
But here, too, there are stumbling blocks - in the form of the extremely turbulent survey situation in the state.
An Insa survey at the beginning of October saw massive shifts in the double-digit percentage point range.
And one of the winners was the FDP.
"It would benefit from new elections," says Oppelland - this reduces the likelihood that the Liberals will be the savior of the Ramelow government.
Thuringia in the state parliament stalemate: new elections unlikely - "acid test" is approaching
However, the scientist from the Friedrich Schiller University in Jena does not consider new elections to be likely either. "The result of the Bundestag election showed that at the moment only a few parties are interested in new elections in Thuringia," he emphasizes. The AfD can count on a stable result in Thuringia - for the CDU, on the other hand, going to the polls threatens to result in a “rather catastrophic” outcome. Ramelow's left would also have to struggle with difficult conditions - and the three current survey winners, the SPD, Greens and FDP, together would not have a two-thirds majority for a self-dissolution of the state parliament.
But there could soon be an important clue for the nearer political future in Thuringia: the budgets are a “sticking point” and “acid test”, says Oppelland.
The next budget must pass the state parliament by the beginning of 2022 at the latest.
"If the adoption succeeds, you would need a double budget next year and then you would be through for the legislative period," he says.
Then saving over time is actually the most obvious option: “The government can also do a lot by means of ordinances, the original jurisdiction of state legislation is not so very great.
There are not so many legislative projects - and even there it cannot be ruled out that one or the other will succeed. "
Thuringia: Even after the summer break, everything is unclear - the left and AfD could remain in focus after new elections
On the other hand, Oppelland says: “Of course, things can go wrong at any time.
If the red-red-green government fails on the budget, it is quite possible that at the end of this year, at the beginning of next year, another attempt will be made to dissolve the state parliament. "
How the population perceives the situation, shrugging or as damage to democracy, is unclear.
He is not aware of any survey on this question, says the expert.
And even the most recent Thuringian Sunday question is probably not suitable for assessing the political situation in the state: Its violent fluctuations are "largely due to the events in Berlin".
In any case, it is to be expected that in the event of a hypothetical new election soon, some Thuringian specifics would take effect again, as Oppelland believes.
A “historical line of continuity” by Linke and Ramelow, which was wise until 1999 - or the stable position of the AfD, which at least for the time being benefited from a “general feeling of decline” in rural areas right up to some larger cities such as Gera.
So it is possible that at the end of another ballot there will be another stalemate.
The times remain exciting.
Also in Thuringia.
(
fn
)
You can read about the background to the unusual Thuringian election results in the second part of our expert discussion - probably on October 21st - on Merkur.de.
