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The day after Erdogan: Is the Turkish president dying? | Israel today

2021-10-18T19:04:24.821Z


Rumors surrounding his health condition, lack of public appearances and the speaker's bizarre tweets • It is clear to the Turks that something bad is happening to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but the man who will soon complete 20 years in power is not going to disappear so quickly • Despite the economic crisis and bad polls Enough to get rid of the aging ruler - who prepares for his opponents some surprises up his sleeve


Like it or not (probably not), Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a figure who has been radiating power for many years.

Erdogan, who has transformed Turkey from a real democracy to a de facto de facto state under authoritarian rule, has been one of the most powerful and stable figures in the Middle East for nearly 20 years, since he was first elected prime minister in 2003.

But in recent months, alarming rumors have been swirling around the controversial leader, and his future seems to be shrouded in mist.

It is too early to eulogize the almost eternal president of Turkey, who also survived an army coup attempt in 2016, but this time the question mark hovers not only over the continuation of his career, but over the continuation of his life.

Stubborn rumors that have been circulating in Turkey for many months have recently become a report in the prestigious Foreign Policy magazine, according to which the 67-year-old Erdogan's health condition is unclear and may prevent him from running in the next elections, which are expected in June 2023. In August at Ataturk's mausoleum in Ankara he even had to enlist the help of a reliable wife to maintain stability.

Weak, supported by his wife and falls asleep in the middle of a speech: What is happening to Turkish President Erdogan?

The article in Foreign Policy, which caused a great deal of controversy, quotes rumors and reports about breathing problems, frequent vomiting and also symptoms of forgetfulness and confusion from which Erdogan suffers.

It was also written that a defibrillator - a device designed to treat cardiac arrest using electric shocks - may have been implanted in his body.

In addition, the number of doctors accompanying Erdogan has increased, and it has been claimed that he uses painkillers before his public appearances, which have diminished considerably.

All of these reports should be treated with due caution, however it is clear that at his not young age and after about two decades in power and decades in public office, Erdogan is suffering from burnout.

However, it is difficult to know whether the rumors and reports about his health condition harmed his popularity.

According to polls in Turkey, sympathy for the president is declining, but this can be attributed to many other factors such as the difficult economic situation and the ongoing violation of democracy and human rights in the country.

"The public debate on Erdogan's medical condition is currently taking place on social media and in small talk between citizens," O'Tonnell, a commentator for The Independent-Turkey, told Israel Today.

"The major media outlets do not address or address the issue."

He said, "The president's head of communications, Fahertin Elton, recently posted some puzzling tweets, such as the tweet in which Erdogan was seen playing basketball with senior government officials. However, I do not think the Foreign Policy report influenced public opinion, and an interesting point The opposition is also refraining from holding a dialogue on the president's health for the time being. "

The polls pointing to a storm on the horizon

But the political calendar does not take into account Erdogan's health constraints. General elections are held in Turkey once every five years, and if in Israel we know the term "election year", then in Turkey the election atmosphere begins about two years before the citizens go to the polls. The next elections, as mentioned, are expected to take place on June 18, 2023, and the nature of the media coverage of them is not going well with Erdogan. Instead of dealing with the question "Is anyone capable of defeating the president," the discussion turned to "Will Erdogan even run for another term?"

Now take a deep breath, and together we will try to dive into the intricacies of the complex electoral system in Turkey.

This unique method is strongly influenced by the exceptional blocking percentage used in the country: 10%.

In light of this, the various parties tend to unite in a "technical block" aimed at preventing the loss of votes.

Voters cast two ballot papers - one ballot paper of their favorite in the parliamentary elections, and a second ballot paper for the presidential candidate, which is usually identified with one of the ballots.

The candidate affiliated with the bloc who won a majority in parliament is almost always elected president, but since the election of the president is personal and direct, he can serve even without a parliamentary majority.

Republican People's Party leader Kamal Kilicdraulo, Photo: AFP

The most recent poll, conducted in September by the Conde Polling Institute, examined the rate of support for the various parties (rather than one bloc or another or a presidential candidate). In a poll, Erdogan's Justice and Development Party received 32.7% of the vote. It was followed by the largest opposition party, the "Republican People's Party" led by Kamal Kilicdraulo, which received 24.8%. In third place was another opposition party, the "Good Party" led by Marel Aksner, which received 19.3%. The pro-Kurdish party, the "Democratic Peoples' Party," which, like the joint list in Israel, does not usually join any coalition, received 11.7%.

However, the worrying figure for Erdogan was precisely the low result achieved by his main coalition partner, the National Movement Party, led by Deblet Bechelli, which received 8.9%.

Although the technical block method allows it to run on one note together with the "Justice and Development Party" and thus escape the danger of the blocking percentage, these data will not be enough for Erdogan to produce a block that will guarantee him the presidency.

Another poll conducted by the Metropolis Institute, in which voters were asked about the bloc for which they would vote (and not about the specific party they support), found that Erdogan's bloc currently has less than 50 percent support and is therefore likely to lose the presidency.

Since the opposition bloc has not yet chosen its presidential candidate most polls still do not ask a direct question on the subject, but past experience suggests an almost absolute identity between the results each bloc gets in the parliamentary election and the result the bloc candidate gets in the presidential election - a serious cause for concern for Erdogan.

A fatal mistake in the Istanbul election

But even if he loses the election, there is no certainty that Erdogan will respect the results.

A worrying event in this context, which may turn out to be a trailer for the real campaign for his political future, took place in the Turkish municipal elections in March 2019. The opposition bloc managed to occupy almost all major cities in the country, but Erdogan's most painful loss was in Istanbul, Istanbul's largest city. City at the beginning of his career.

The candidate on his behalf, former parliamentary speaker Binali Yildirim, lost by a narrow margin of 0.2% to opposition candidate Akram Imamoulou.

Istanbul Mayor Akram Imamolo, Photo: IPI

He sent his men to appeal the results to the Central Election Commission, which did rule on re-elections held in June of that year.

But the people of Istanbul, where the percentage of educated people is very high compared to the rest of Turkey, were outraged at the attempt to cancel their democratic election and answered Erdogan at the ballot box: this time, the candidate was defeated by a large and undeniable gap of more than seven percent.

The unequivocal victory in Istanbul encouraged the opposition to Erdogan, which until then had been split into two separate blocs, to enter into accelerated talks to create one bloc, unprecedented in size, that would consist of six parties and face the Turkish president in 2023.

Erdogan's arrogance and unwillingness to acknowledge the local loss in Istanbul may turn out to be a mistake that set in motion a tectonic process in Turkish politics, which would end in his removal from the presidency.

The gamble that could ruin the Turkish economy

Erdogan's political turmoil has led him to pursue a populist economic policy that endangers the future of tens of millions of Turks.

Turkey has a huge national debt of about $ 450 billion, which the children and grandchildren of current voters will have to repay in the future.

Yet despite the unequivocal recommendations of experts, Erdogan vehemently refuses to raise taxes and creates a bottomless "economic pit" into which the state could be sucked.

In just one year and four months, the Turkish president has replaced no less than three central bank governors, after refusing to accept their recommendations for taking difficult but necessary economic measures.

Erdogan's opposition to raising taxes is also based to some extent on Islam, which does not rule out taxation in a sweeping way but expresses a cautious attitude to the issue.

Erdogan, Photo: AFP

Not only the governors of the Central Bank of Turkey are suffering because of Erdogan's anger, but the entire senior economic bureaucracy.

Just last Thursday, the president fired three members of the Turkish Monetary Committee.

The decision, which was perceived as capricious, led to another crash in the value of the Turkish currency.

On Monday, the Turkish lira depreciated against the dollar to a low of 9.315 to the dollar.

This is a weakening of about 20% since the beginning of 2021. "Many commentators in the country are wondering if Erdogan is really aware of the severity of the economic situation," says journalist O'Toole.

"One opinion holds that his advisers refrain from presenting him the true picture to the end, and another opinion is that his political situation adversely affects his decision-making."

Success in the Caucasus, embarrassment in Afghanistan

Erdogan's only significant significant decision in recent years has been to deepen relations with Azerbaijan and implement the outline that has been dubbed "one nation - two states". The Azeris - with the help of both Turkey and Israel - won a major victory over Armenia in the Second Carbach War, and Ankara gained a significant military presence in the Caucasus as part of the peacekeeping force deployed in the region in cooperation with Russia.

On other fronts, however, Turkey's situation is less successful. Ankara has so far failed to reach a decision in the struggle against the Kurdish underground in northern Syria, and is facing significant difficulties in its policy in Afghanistan. After the US withdrawal from the country, the Turks boasted that forces on their behalf were expected to succeed NATO allies and take responsibility for Hamid Karzai airport in Kabul, thus gaining a military presence in Central Asia. Afghanistan's new rulers ordered the sweeping evacuation of all foreign forces from the country, and Erdogan's troops were also forced to fold.

Still, the Turkish government does not say desperate.

Last Thursday, Turkish Foreign Minister Balut Chebushoulu hosted his Taliban counterpart, Amir Khan Mutaki.

Chebushou claimed he spoke with his colleague about "the importance of a government representing all the different ethnic groups in Afghanistan", adding that "we have called on the Taliban to take care of women's education and employment";

In practice, however, the meeting indicates that Turkey has fully aligned itself with Pakistan and Qatar, and has decided to treat the Taliban as the legitimate ruler of Afghanistan.

Who will replace Erdogan?

But even with a domestic economic crisis, a faltering foreign policy and a big question mark hovering over his health, Erdogan still enjoys one big advantage: the fact that the opposition has yet to confront one figure who will grab the alternative slot.

Erdogan vs. Ikram Imamolo in the Metropolis Institute poll,

The one who stands out as one of the strongest candidates is the mayor of Istanbul Akram Imamolo, who is considered a political meteor. A survey by the Metropol Institute, which was conducted about six months ago and should therefore be treated with caution, revealed that if Imamalo faces Erdogan, he will overcome him by 49.7% compared to 38.8%. Another candidate with no less good chances is Ankara Mayor Mansour Yavash, who received 49.4% in the poll compared to only 37.5% received by Erdogan. Even Marel Aksner, the leader of the "good party" which is only the second largest in the opposition bloc, defeated Erdogan in the poll with 42.5% compared to 38.5%.

The one who pays dearly for his attempts to defeat Erdogan by making him a sort of imitation of the Turkish president is the leader of the "Republican People's Party", Kamal Kilicdraulo, who on paper is supposed to be the natural candidate to replace the president.

Kilicadraulo, known for his harsh and vociferous criticism of Israel, received only 39.7% in the poll compared to Erdogan's 42.5%.

If the choice is more of the same, the Turkish public probably prefers the original.

The president's private militias

Either way, it is not at all certain that a victory in the presidential election will be enough for the opposition to ensure a change of government in the country.

"Beyond the fact that, like the Istanbul election, Erdogan may not be prosecuted if he loses, we may encounter various types of fraud even before the results are published," Dr. Chai Eitan Cohen Inrojek, a modern Turkish researcher at the Jerusalem Institute of Strategy, told Israel Today. And for security and at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University.

According to him, the fear of forgeries is particularly great in the east of the country, which is considered the periphery of Turkey, where it is seemingly easier to skew the vote count.

"In addition, if Erdogan succeeds in forcing re-elections as he did in the local elections, there is a good chance that even after that he may not get the results - and hold on to power by declaring a state of emergency." On the nullity of the election - for example, raising allegations regarding foreign intervention.

Leader of the Good Party Marel Aksner,

"If he chooses this path, Erdogan is expected to rely on the new security forces he has set up himself," Cohen Inrojek explains, "including the 'neighborhood guards' - a kind of private militia that can be seen as a Turkish version of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, and 'reinforcements'. In fact, Erdogan's special presidential guard. "

Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2021-10-18

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