"We carried out 32 strikes in al-Abdiya, in the region of Marib and more than 160 terrorist elements eliminated".
Since last Monday, the Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen, which has opposed the Houthi rebels since 2014, has published such a message almost every day.
The resumption of fighting in this strategic region raises fears of a large-scale massacre and a humanitarian catastrophe.
We explain the situation to you.
Where does the fighting take place?
The recent coalition strikes targeted the south of the city of Marib, located in the eponymous province in central Yemen.
They aim to counter an offensive in the region by Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, who oppose pro government forces, backed by Saudi Arabia.
But the province, the last loyalist stronghold in the western part of Yemen, is fiercely defended.
#UPDATE The Saudi-led military coalition supporting Yemen's government said Sunday it had killed at least 165 Huthi rebels in strikes south of Marib, as the battle for the strategic city rageshttps: //t.co/YPNzj3J1WK pic.twitter.com/Adn8gHeJWi
- AFP News Agency (@AFP) October 17, 2021
The region now finds itself surrounded by rebel forces who hope to link their territories to the north and south.
But Marib is not only of geographical interest.
"There is one of the two refineries in the country, capable of generating 20,000 barrels of oil and gas per day, according to the oil ministry and of supplying regions held by the rebels," explains Parisian David Rigoulet-Roze, researcher at the French Institute for Strategic Analysis and editor-in-chief of the journal Orients Stratégique.
A geostrategic pocket which led the loyalist Prime Minister Maïn Abdelmalek Saïd, declared at the end of September to the Yemeni news agency Saba that "the future of Yemen will depend on the outcome of this battle".
What is the military situation?
To counter the Houthi ground offensive, the coalition has been carrying out a series of devastating air raids since Sunday, October 10, which it believes are responsible for the death of around a thousand rebels.
While it is certain that the losses are significant on the Houthi side, the figures could not be verified by an independent source.
But these strikes are not enough to stop the Houthi surge.
"Our forces are now at the gates of Marib after having driven out the mercenaries and traitors from several sectors," rebel spokesman Yahya Sarie said on Tuesday.
Information confirmed by pro-government sources who announced the same day the capture of a locality south of Marib.
"On the ground, the advantage is clearly on the Houthi side for the moment," confirms David Rigoulet-Roze.
And humanitarian?
The Battle of Marib comes as the situation in Yemen is described by the United Nations as the world's worst humanitarian disaster and 88% of the population finds itself dependent on humanitarian assistance, according to Doctors Without Borders.
But that's not all: the situation in the region, relatively untouched by the fighting so far, has made it a real refuge for civilians, who are now threatened.
"If Marib falls and urban fighting starts, it risks becoming a real humanitarian chaos"
David Rigoulet-Roze
Marib had a population of between 20,000 and 30,000 before the war and is now home to hundreds of thousands of people, mostly Yemenis displaced by seven years of conflict.
According to the government, more than 130 refugee camps host approximately 2.2 million people in the province.
Yemen: A comprehensive negotiated political settlement is needed to end the violence in the country once and for all, @OSE_Yemen tells Security Council.
https://t.co/qnuxQoDwBq
- United Nations (@UN) October 14, 2021
The fighting around the enclave is currently preventing the delivery of United Nations humanitarian aid, which is crucial for these populations.
The international organization is stepping up calls for a ceasefire, but the situation could get even worse.
"If Marib falls and urban fighting starts, it risks becoming a real humanitarian chaos", worries David Rigoulet-Roze.
Does this battle bury hopes for negotiations?
All eyes are naturally on Iran and Saudi Arabia, which clash indirectly on Yemeni ground. After several months of discussions, the two big rivals in the Gulf seemed to be slowly approaching a relaxation in recent days. "Saudi Arabia hopes to disengage from a conflict which has cost it several billion dollars per month since 2015", specifies David Rigoulet-Roze.
But this detente does not materialize on the ground: the Yemeni Prime Minister Maïn Saïd refuses that his country does not become a "bargaining chip" and the rebels seem to act more and more independently of the Iranian ally.
"Even if it is not excluded that the Iranians continue to secretly support the rebels, it would seem that the Houthis are continuing this offensive with their own agenda," confirms the researcher.
Despite calls from the United Nations, hopes for a ceasefire are fading.
