We will have to wait many more months before seeing the soaring prices of gas, coal or oil decrease.
Energy prices around the world are expected to increase by more than 80% on average in 2021 compared to 2020. And they will remain at high levels in 2022. They will not start to fall until the second half of next year. , as supply constraints ease, the World Bank said in a report.
See also
Is the current surge in inflation normal?
The current surge in energy prices adds to global inflationary pressures linked to the economic recovery from the recession triggered by the pandemic in 2020. It could
'shift'
economic growth from energy importing countries to exporting countries, observes the institution based in Washington.
Prices for black gold, brent and WTI, are expected to average $ 70 in 2021, which will be a 70% increase from last year.
In 2022,
"as demand for oil strengthens and reaches pre-pandemic levels, crude prices are expected to climb to $ 74 per barrel"
on average.
They will then drop to $ 65 in 2023, predicts the bank.
Risks to global inflation
"Soaring energy prices pose significant short-term risks to global inflation and, if sustained, could weigh on growth in energy-importing countries,"
says Ayhan Kose, chief economist of the World Bank, which leads the “Commodity Market Outlook” report.
"The strong rebound in commodity prices is proving more pronounced than expected"
and
"recent price volatility may complicate policy choices as countries recover from the global recession of 2020," he
explains.
The institution also stresses that non-energy prices, including those of agriculture and metals, should fall in 2022, after sharp increases this year.