Virginie Jacoberger-Lavoué is a journalist and author of
Brasil, Voyage au pays de Bolsonaro
, Éditions du Rocher.
FIGAROVOX. - In Brazil, a parliamentary commission of inquiry accused Jair Bolsonaro of
"
crime against humanity
"
and calls for his indictment because of his health policy.
Is such an accusation legitimate?
Virginie JACOBERGER-LAVOUÉ. -
We must first understand how this accusation of "crime against humanity" was retained by the commission of inquiry.
Brazilian senators leading the congressional investigation into the management of the Covid-19 epidemic met on October 19 to discuss the report prepared by opposition senator Renan Calheiros.
The 1,000-page document initially held at least nine charges against President Jair Bolsonaro, including genocide, referring to the fate of so-called indigenous communities and actions that would have made them even more vulnerable.
Bolsonaro's negligence is evident, but whether one can evoke criminal liability is another question.
Virginie Jacoberger-Lavoué
To prevent the report from being rejected, the senators opted to drop this recommendation for indictment of genocide. They also abandoned the idea of a homicide charge which required naming an individual victim; and then decided to retain the charge of "crime against humanity" mentioned in this long report which lists charges that range from breaches to embezzlement.
"The action of the president and senior members of the Ministry of Health, who could and should have acted in a timely manner, contributed to the increased risk of the spread of Covid-19"
, concludes the report, which recalls the number of people infected in Brazil and the deaths.
In French law, the crime against humanity (Criminal Code, article 212-1) refers to the charter of the Nuremberg Tribunal which defined it in 1945. It is a criminal offense which covers several punishable incriminations. at the national and international level, including genocide, population deportation, slavery, ... if it is committed in execution of a concerted plan against a population group.
The decision of the Brazilian senators refers to the International Criminal Court (ICC), which sets out a more open definition (Article 7 of the Rome Statute of the ICC) of a concept already difficult to define in legal terms (eleven acts constituting a “crime”). against humanity ”).
The senatorial commission of inquiry therefore concluded that the Brazilian president had been charged with "crimes against humanity" and requested, on October 20, his indictment for "intentional crimes".
It can be recalled that in Brazil, in July 2020, a group of health personnel had already requested for this reason the opening of an investigation at the ICC.
To read also "Whether you are for or against Bolsonaro, the pride of being Brazilian remains strong!"
The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in more than 600,000 deaths in this country-continent, which has more than 213 million people and remains highly unequal.
It has the most pandemic-related deaths after the United States, with a much younger population and official figures below reality.
Bolsonaro has minimized the coronavirus which he has qualified on multiple occasions as
"flu",
denigrated even the measures of distancing, made errors in judgment with a late turnaround on vaccination ... The negligence is proven but that the one can evoke a criminal responsibility is another question for him as for other leaders whose failings are known in the management of the pandemic.
The report of the senatorial commission of inquiry, which targets the president as
"the main responsible for the crisis",
also pinpoints 65 personalities. The management of the pandemic has not escaped corruption. But the failure of the health system is not the sole responsibility of the Bolsonaro government. It is also the responsibility of previous governments, that is, the left and its public policies. For three terms, the Workers' Party (PT) made many unfulfilled promises and did not invest enough in health and education. And this Brazilian left still does not make its mea-culpa of the massively diverted public money and the institutionalized corruption discovered with the scandals Petrobras, Odebrecht ...
Its voters are designated by the acronym BBB for Balles, Bible and Bœuf: pro-arms, evangelicals and agribusiness.
Virginie Jacoberger-Lavoué
If a judicial development is unlikely, Jair Bolsonaro is not out of business, the management of the pandemic will come back like a boomerang during the electoral campaign.
It seems unlikely that Bolsonaro will stand trial, but the commission's findings could prove highly damaging to his image.
Can Jair Bolsonaro's handling of the COVID crisis handicap him politically? However, his electorate seems certain to him ...
The elections will be held in October 2022 but Jair Bolsonaro is already campaigning, his re-election is even his obsession.
He wants to mobilize his electorate with a new presence on Telegram (1 million subscribers).
Jair Bolsonaro has a solid electorate and nearly 25% of the population does not comment unfavorably on the results of its management of the pandemic.
His voters are designated by the acronym BBB for Bales, Bœuf et Bible: the pro-arms - very satisfied with his mandate - the evangelicals who support him with a few exceptions and finally, the agribusiness which was so far amply satisfied with its policy with an export growth of + 24% even in times of pandemic.
Read also Brazil: tens of thousands of demonstrators for the impeachment of President Jair Bolsonaro
But Brazil currently has a big problem with China and its meat exports. We also observe that a third of the voters of Bolsonaro in 2018 no longer want to vote for him; they are tired of his provocations, they blame him for the deterioration of the health and economic situation. In a country of 70 million informal workers, not everyone blames him for denigrating the confinement but many remain shocked at his denial of the seriousness of the disease and of a virus that has led to tragic disappearances therein. including children (53,000).
Bolsonaro who wants to be a strong man and popular hero, will not spare a catabase, a confrontation with his dead, during the next campaign.
I come back from Brazil where I interviewed his opponents as some of his loyal supporters.
Among these, there are voters who say they liked his insolence to displease but in the exercise of power, no longer support it.
Today the health situation has improved thanks to vaccination (70% of the population for the first dose; half of the population for both) but the economic and social situation has deteriorated considerably.
Former President Lula is making a comeback and can restore the opposition to substance. What will be the structuring challenges of this duel one year from the presidential election?
The polls predict the victory of Lula who is undoubtedly a political animal apart, but the Brazilians are not so candid;
they are ready to vote for him to “release” Bolsonaro, while believing in his guilt in the cases of corruption.
As a reminder, ex-president Lula da Silva has not been exonerated, justice has only lifted its sanctions for fraud and money laundering, illicit enrichment… on the technical grounds of a non-competent court, then for breaches.
Lula da Silva was previously convicted by three jurisdictions for fraud, attempt to obstruct justice, with damning testimonies from his most loyal supporters of the Workers' Party, we are far from the political conspiracy.
Bolsonaro is in denial of the pandemic, Lula in denial of corruption.
However, we can find one thing in common: neither of them wants to talk about the country's economic problems.
Virginie Jacoberger-Lavoué
Bolsonaro is in denial of the pandemic, Lula in denial of corruption.
However, we can find one thing in common: neither of them wants to talk about the country's economic problems.
Lula has become amnesiac for everything that does not relate to the good results of his first mandate, a prosperous Brazil essentially stimulated by world demand and the
commodity
market
, raw materials.
Lula brings under the rug both business (Mensalao, Lava Jato) and the disastrous record of the Dilma Rousseff government, his runner-up, which led the country to the most serious historical recession (2016).
Bolsonaro, who had promised a new dynamic with his Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes, does not want to mention the absence of significant reforms and the worsening economic and social situation, with rising unemployment (+ 15 million people), increased precariousness: extreme poverty affects nearly 20 million Brazilians and food inflation has been considerable.
The Brazilian economy is slipping, even bogged down.
The difficulties are there: double-digit inflation, an increase in the cost of electricity and fuels, etc.
Read alsoCovid-19: the dubious medical experiences in Brazil
The government has just been affected by a new wave of resignations at the highest level of its Ministry of the Economy. To improve its popularity, which has been plummeting for months, Bolsonaro wanted to expand a program of remittances for families in precariousness, but fears that the public expenditure ceiling would be bypassed has alarmed many investors. Four senior Treasury officials, State Secretaries at the Ministry of the Economy, announced their departure on October 21. The fiscal risk raises questions. And the Minister of the Economy did not calm the spirits by indicating, on October 20, that the government could ask for a "derogation" to obtain more than 4.5 billion euros (30 billion reals) exceeding the ceiling. The fuel "premium" is also thenews in Brazil where, to ease tensions, Bolsonaro promised, on October 21, aid to truckers (750,000) to offset the increase in fuel prices.
Politically, the polarization is even stronger than yesterday.
The presidential campaign will be one of all fears and
fake news
.
The pro-Lula see the danger in a second term of “extreme right” and assure that the president will push, in the event of defeat, the soldiers to the putsch.
The pro-Bolsonaro are raising the specter of what they call the
"return to communism"
and of a scenario dooming Brazil to know the fate of Venezuela.
