Thuringian conditions: Why the left and AfD perform so strongly - and how the traffic light could harm Höcke

In the Thuringian state parliament, the left and AfD have an absolute majority.

Expert Torsten Oppelland explains the background - and why the AfD could lose again in the medium term.

Jena / Munich - Thuringia has been in a government crisis for months. And that is not only due to the people involved, but above all to an unusual and explosive composition in the state parliament: Left and AfD together received 54.4 percent of the votes in the 2019 election - an unusual absolute majority for incompatible poles of the parliamentary spectrum . Including not only the very moderate left of Bodo Ramelow, but also the Thuringia AfD of the extreme right winger Björn Höcke.

In any case, finding a majority is difficult under these circumstances. For comparison: in Bavaria the two parties came to 14.4 percent in 2018, in Brandenburg to 34.2 percent in 2019. So it is a very special constellation in the smallest of the three German Free States. As was confirmed again in the Bundestag election: At the end of September, the AfD became the strongest force in Thuringia, despite observation of the state association by the constitutional protection. Much to the horror of the competitors - not least the CDU, which lost several direct mandates.

There are reasons for the very “special” voting behavior;

historical, personal and also very current, as the Jena political scientist Torsten Oppelland

in an expert

.

On the one hand, he did not expect a simple solution through new elections - but he also does not consider the AfD's last stable position to be permanently cemented.

Thuringia: AfD, despite observation of the constitutional protection, second strongest state parliament force - "That doesn't interest their voters"

In the election results of the right-wing populists, "something specifically East German", said Oppelland.

The AfD is mainly chosen in rural areas.

“There are smaller towns and cities there, right up to the edge of the big city, such as Gera, where there is a general feeling of decline.

The young are moving away, only the old are staying, the kindergartens are being closed, buses and trains no longer run as often, ”he explained.

“Some people get the feeling that the parties, the state, 'those up there' don't care and don't meet their expectations.

That leads to a loss of trust. "

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Result of a turbulent Prime Minister election: With AfD votes, FDP man Thomas Kemmerich was briefly head of government in Erfurt.

© Martin Schutt

The assessment of the AfD * as a right-wing extremist by the protection of the Constitution goes "into the void" among the Thuringian voters, stated Oppelland.

"That doesn't interest the AfD voters," although the following applies: "Many of them tend to be right-wing, but not right-wing extremists." the exclusion mechanisms towards the AfD are viewed with suspicion anyway. " 

Thuringia: Ramelow's “Continuity Line” - PDS and Left Party since 1999 and a “political talent” at the top

At the same time, there is a general trend towards “orientation towards people”. It exists all over Germany - in the east, where traditionally there are hardly any party ties, it comes into its own, explained the political scientist from Jena Friedrich Schiller University: West Pomerania seen again. "The tendency is even more pronounced in Thuringia," because in recent years all parties have changed their leadership staff except for the left with Bodo Ramelow - and in this situation that is accompanied by upheavals, also in the electorate . "

Which addresses the next special case in Thuringia: Ramelow *, who is considered a pragmatist, is the only left state head of government in the history of the Federal Republic. According to Oppelland, a "line of continuity" that goes back to 1999 plays a role in this success. Shortly before the state elections, which took place 22 years ago, the SPD had a quarrel over the continuation of a GroKo - the PDS at that time subsequently became the “strongest force in the left-wing camp” for the first time.

“Bodo Ramelow was elected to the state parliament for the first time and very quickly turned out to be the greatest political talent in this parliamentary group.

He was also elected chairman of the parliamentary group in the middle of the legislature, ”recapitulated Oppelland.

"Since then, the Left * has been stronger than the SPD, mostly even stronger than the SPD and the Greens combined." The expert suggested that this could well remain the case in the future - despite a recent Thuringian survey by the Left.

AfD electoral successes in Thuringia: Expert considers change "in the medium term" possible - "Also depends on the federal government"

Because at the beginning of October a Sunday question had shown landslide-like shifts * - the SPD, for example, gained double digits, the left lost its role as the strongest force in the survey. But that seems to be "a broadcast of the federal election *", Oppelland explained in an interview with

. Before a hypothetical early state election it would be clear "who the candidates for the SPD will be, the focus will be more on the state level, and the person of Ramelow will again play a stronger role".

That leaves the question of the future of the AfD, which is fraught with some horror.

"The crucial question is: Will an AfD milieu solidify - or can the losses that the CDU is currently suffering just as well affect the AfD in three or five years," said the expert.

Some colleagues assumed that the AfD would achieve “very stable” results in the medium term.

Oppelland, on the other hand, said he was “really not entirely sure” about this point.

“The further development can also depend on how the economic situation develops in the medium term,” he emphasized.

Or also about “whether the voters have the feeling that a new federal government is bringing a breath of fresh air to their region”.

If the new government succeeds, the AfD results in Thuringia could become more “volatile” again, according to the expert.

So in Thuringia, too, our eyes are on the traffic light coalition negotiations.

The Erfurt Landtag is still facing troubled times: In the coming months, Ramelow's minority government will have to bring a budget through parliament.

According to Oppelland, a sticking point: If the project succeeds, “three years of muddling through” are conceivable until the next election date *.

If red-red-green fail on the budget, quick new elections are also possible.

Then there would be the test to the example - and the answer to the question of whether Thuringia's state parliament remains a special case.

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