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Fear and loathing: When peace in the south is cold, the front may warm up Israel today

2021-10-23T20:41:15.012Z


Since the peace agreement, the border with Egypt has become quiet and calm from a security point of view - but two new threats continue to endanger Israel.


In a few months, Egypt will mark 40 years since the return of the Sinai Peninsula to Egyptian sovereignty, under the peace agreement it signed with Israel.

Even then, as well as today, we have occasionally heard voices claiming that this is a wrong and dangerous decision, which will cost us dearly when Egyptian army divisions cross the canal one day, return to Sinai and prepare for an attack on Israel along the international line.

The Yom Kippur War taught that gatekeepers should not be underestimated, but the accumulated experience of the last 40 years does not reinforce this concern: the border with Egypt has become, like the border with Jordan, quiet and calm from a security point of view, allowing the IDF to allocate very little power to maintain the line.

Forty years ago, Mubarak, who died last year, told me that as a senior military man, and as the commander of the Air Force in the Yom Kippur War, he knew better than others the heavy price of war, and so, he swore, "there will never be another war between us." .

He repeated this oath to me several times.

And also kept his word.

The cold peace between us and the Egyptians during his 30 years in office lasted even during crises and difficult conflicts between Israel and its adversaries in the Arab world.

The Egyptian army did not enter Sinai and the demilitarization agreement was strictly observed.

A series of threats

Precisely at the end of Mubarak's period, and even more so after his removal ten years ago, two new threats were born for the first time to Israel from the south.

One is related to the growth and establishment of terrorist cells in northern Sinai.

This is a deadly connection between organizations such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, and young Bedouin frustrated by decades of neglect by the central government in Cairo.

Although most of the attacks were carried out against the Egyptian army in Sinai and inside Egypt, Israel also experienced border incidents and missile fire on Eilat along with frequent explosions in the gas pipeline.

In the tunnels between Gaza and Sinai, weapons, weapons, explosives and military know-how flowed unhindered in both directions.

Explosion in the gas pipeline in Sinai, Photo: AP

The other threat, which was launched against Israel from the south after Mubarak's ouster, came with the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood to power, and the election of Muhammad Morsi as president.

The friendly and ideological ties between Morsi and his people and the top Hamas figures in Gaza and the reciprocal visits aroused great concern in Israel.

This was further exacerbated when Morsi hinted at his intention to “re-examine” the military annex to the peace agreement and bring the Egyptian army into Sinai.

Both of these threats to Israel were removed by General 'Abd al-Fatah al-Sisi, the youngest member of the Supreme Military Council that ruled Egypt after Mubarak.

In the summer of 2013, he ousted Morsi from the presidential palace and kept the Muslim Brotherhood out of power.

The sigh of relief heard in Jerusalem could be heard in the distance.

At the same time, he launched a campaign, which lasted several years, to eliminate jihadist operatives in northern Sinai who are responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Egyptian soldiers and the wounding of thousands.

According to reports, Israel not only assisted in this campaign in intelligence and in other ways, but also allowed Egypt to bring dozens of army battalions to Sinai to fight terrorism.

As part of the cooperation between the two armies, the Egyptian president fired on two battalions, even in the early stages of the campaign, to thwart the firing of missiles and rockets at Eilat.

At the same time, he worked to block most of the tunnels that connected Gaza and Sinai.

The result: terrorism has been eradicated, even if it has not yet been completely eradicated.

Security coordination between Israel and Egypt has deepened.

From the north evil will open

Skeptics will say that this is all about self-interested and temporary cooperation, which can be decided by a higher decision.

They will also argue, and rightly so, that the insane armament rate of the Egyptian army, which has been acquiring the best Western offensive weapons in recent years, should not be ignored.

Submarines, fighter jets and what not, and at the same time - builds new bases and deepens the military infrastructure.

"It will all be turned against us one day."

Add to that the fact that there is not really a plausible explanation for this stocking other than, perhaps, Egypt's desire to maintain its position as a powerful and significant factor in the Middle East arena, and to prepare for future threats in the Mediterranean by powers like Turkey.

But in the analysis of a military threat it is not enough to point to the capability, but one must also point to the intentions.

And the Egyptian president not only strengthens security cooperation with Israel, but also, perhaps under the influence of peace agreements with the Gulf states, has also recently taken some cautious steps in the field of civil normalization: a public meeting with Bennett in Cairo, Egypt Air landing in Israel, and his public call for Arab countries. Who has not sounded like her before, to follow the peace initiative of Anwar Sadat.

It is true that in any future confrontation with Egypt, if such a one breaks out, the IDF will have to deal with a huge army equipped with modern and modern weapons, but at this time the clear and immediate dangers to Israel are precisely from the north.

Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2021-10-23

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