According to Greifswald bioinformatician Lars Kaderali, the greatest risk of corona infection is still ahead of unvaccinated people.
He expects a lot of infections, especially around Christmas and New Year.
Greifswald - According to Greifswald bioinformatician Lars Kaderali, unvaccinated people are still facing the greatest risk of corona infection. Unvaccinated people would have an infection risk in the coming winter "which will be higher than it was ever before in the pandemic," said the head of bioinformatics at the Greifswald University Medical Center of the German Press Agency.
In the case of infection numbers that have already been exceeded in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a lockdown had already been discussed last year. That is different because of the vaccination offer this year. "In principle, it runs through now." The infection process will take place primarily in the non-vaccinated part of the population. This was also recently shown by the figures from the State Office for Health and Social Affairs (Lagus): In the unvaccinated, the seven-day incidence of new infections per 100,000 inhabitants was over 100 and in the vaccinated between 20 and 25. Even in the group of people over 60 who are at high risk, there is still a substantial proportion of people who have not been vaccinated.
“We will - you can already see that - get increasing incidences.
That will certainly accelerate with the onset of winter. ”According to Kaderali, behind the recent increase in the number of infections is on the one hand the onset of seasonality - it is getting colder and people are increasingly staying indoors, where the virus spreads better.
In addition, the more aggressive Delta variant is noticeable as well as the higher mobility of people during the autumn holidays.
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Over 200 infections in one day: two regions still green
For the second day in a row, the health authorities in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania reported more than 200 new corona infections in one day.
Only two regions are now green on the state's risk map: the state capital Schwerin and the Mecklenburg Lake District.
In all other counties and urban districts, the warning light shows yellow because there the seven-day incidence of new infections is over 50.
Over 200 infections in one day: two regions still green
According to Kaderali's simulations, the maximum value of the seven-day incidence will come around around Christmas or around New Year.
But that depends on how quickly the increase develops.
"I can also imagine that this could definitely be done again in the 200, 300, maybe even 400 range."
An exact prediction is difficult, however, and depends on the one hand on the effect of seasonality but also on the actual vaccination rate.
There are different statements about this, for example from Lagus and the Robert Koch Institute.
Kaderali's simulations showed that this factor had a big effect.
Five percentage points more in the vaccination quota could therefore almost halve the maximum seven-day incidence of infections.
dpa