Editor's Note:
Simone Lucatello is a research professor at the Mora-CONACYT Institute in Mexico.
Scientist member of the IPCC, the UN's group of experts on climate change.
The comments expressed in this column belong exclusively to the author.
See more at cnne.com/opinion
(CNN Spanish) -
The successes or failures of the world climate change summit, COP26, scheduled for later this month in Glasgow, Scotland, are like a coin in the air. In a situation that is known in English as fly or flop (you fly or fall), never like today, the results of this meeting are so uncertain and challenging for the future of the planet and the existence of humanity.
As the global cry of some young people, activists, scientists and politicians to stop the climate crisis resounds in the media and governments around the world for urgent action and increased ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. greenhouse effect, many countries are reaching the summit clinging to their "climatic parachutes". These can be defined as the set of measures that governments can use during negotiations in case of great uncertainty, to safeguard themselves and not assume commitments that are too binding or not favorable for the economic development of each nation, and thus postpone urgent decisions without risking too.
A combination of historical factors could mean that for this COP26 we will see several parachutes unfold, especially after the ravages of the pandemic: on the one hand, the great ecological transition that is expected to save the planet and which involves decarbonizing global economies in The next few decades, it varies from country to country and not everyone wants to achieve it so vehemently. It is not the same what the European Union can do, for example, with the new green pact, or what Mexico, China, India and many other large countries of the global south can do to face the climate crisis. The United States itself, after the traumatic exit from the Paris Agreement - under the presidency of Donald Trump - and its subsequent return, is still finding its way into said global transition.
In addition, the lack of economic resources, technologies, political calculations and corporate interests, among other factors, impose different agendas in each negotiation and all this translates each time into little impactful results for the climate negotiations.
In this kaleidoscope of views and positions, it is there that countries, under the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, bring out their climate parachutes.
A classic parachute is the possibility of declaring, for example and as I think the United States, Russia and India will do, that they will postpone their emission reduction dates to 2030, 2050 or beyond, in 2060. This would imply more than 20 years behind what was promised at the 2015 Paris Summit.
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Other parachutes are to rely on the magic solutions of technology to store underground, for example, excess carbon in the atmosphere through mega-projects of climate engineering or through the control of nature-based solutions, a euphemism for define an umbrella concept that includes different approaches to climate adaptation based on the same nature.
Another classic parachute would be to commit to what you can, with the times that will be determined in the strenuous negotiations.
The basic questions then are: will all countries announce in Glasgow a greater commitment to reduce emissions after the devastating effects of covid-19?
How conservative or advanced will the final declaration of the summit be?
And how does Mexico get to COP26?
Regarding the country's climate ambitions, Mexico arrives at COP26 with its "new" reduction goals that are actually practically the same with respect to those presented during the Paris Agreement.
The National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change of the Mexican Government (INECC) has prepared a very detailed document on adaptation and mitigation activities that are also in line with the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals in preparation for COP26 .
These foresee a 22% reduction in greenhouse gases and a 51% reduction in black carbon by 2030. Let us remember that Mexico contributes 1.4% of total global emissions, according to data from 2017, but together with The US and Canada - its North American partners - contribute 18% of the world total.
The IPCC emission scenarios for Mexico indicate that, if the country does not implement its measures in accordance with the ambitions proposed for COP26 (and by the same national law on climate change and adaptation and mitigation measures), it could experience an increase in both per capita and country emissions will more than double over the next 20 years.
But will Mexico be able to meet these goals?
Several of the political and economic decisions taken in recent months on energy and economic issues, for example, suggest that the country's ecological and energy transition process will follow a slow path.
It remains to be seen whether Mexico will bring out its climate parachute in the negotiations (confirm what it has already presented) or whether it will pursue high-flying international climate diplomacy (it will increase its ambitions).
Climate change
