Disappointment for snow fans? Weather expert expects mild winter

A new winter forecast for 2021/2022 is available.

Is there a threat of winter on Christmas in December?

Will it be freezing in January?

The different weather models disagree.

Munich - The days are getting shorter and shorter.

This darkness brings some in the Christmas spirit.

Time for an update on the winter forecast for 2021/2022:

"Exciting weather developments" are now according to meteorologist Dominik Jung from the weather

to see.

The current long-term weather models from the US weather service NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the European weather service ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) are there.

December 2021 is particularly interesting for the weatherman.

The forecast for the entire winter - December, January to February - looks rather mild according to the US weather service NOAA.

1 to 2 degrees too warm compared to the long-term climate mean.

According to NOAA, December 2021 is neither too warm nor clearly too cold. The temperatures are in the European climate mean, explains Jung. The ECMWF weather model predicts lower temperatures for central and southern Germany in December 2021. There it could be almost half a degree (0.5 degrees) colder than compared to the long-term climate mean, according to the meteorologist. A too warm December is not calculated by either of the two weather models.

Is there a white Christmas?

Weather expert Jung hardly wants to commit himself to such predictions.

"But these are only climate trends, nobody should plan their life or vacation accordingly".

It's a nice gimmick, but no comparison with a classic weather forecast for the next three to five days.

According to Jung, the hit probability is relatively low with these seasonal forecasts.

Snow fans have to be patient.

Update winter forecast 2021/2022 - This is the outlook for January and February 2022

According to the weather models, January 2022 and February 2022 tend to be too warm.

“Much precipitation is not calculated.

That already indicates that it could often be a winter characterized by high air pressure: little precipitation, often calm and unspectacular weather, ”explains weather expert Jung.

• According to the NOAA forecast, January 2022 will be rather too warm.

  With the European weather model - everything looks rather normal.

  “That means ice and snow,” says Jung.

• According to NOAA, February 2022 is rather too warm.

  Even according to the ECMWF weather model, it is 0.5 to 1 degree too warm compared to the long-term climate mean.

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Shock cold and snow?

New trend forecasts for winter 2021/2022 are available.

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In the first prognoses for winter 2021/2022 everything points to a “big surprise”.

According to data from the US Weather Service, one of the coldest winters in years is looming.

The winter of 2020/21 was already too cold.

The so-called polar vortex split created apocalyptic winter scenarios and freezing cold.