The polls on the major issues of the presidential election follow one another, but are not alike.
With the rise in fuel prices, purchasing power has imposed itself in the public debate.
According to an Elabe survey for BFMTV on October 20, this is the subject that most worries the French, far ahead of security, immigration, health and the environment.
But will it be decisive for 2022?
To discover
Presidential 2022: where are the candidates in the polls?
Read also Presidential 2022: the battle for purchasing power agitates the campaign
According to the polls, security and purchasing power are given in turn as the main themes of the upcoming election.
A Kantar Public study for
L'Hémicycle
estimates, for example, that the subjects that the French most want to hear about during the presidential campaign are daily security (24%), ecological transition (21%) and immigration management. (21%).
A single dominant theme in 2022
For political scientist Chloé Morin, these two possibilities are the most likely for 2022: “
We will necessarily be on a theme that refers to insecurity and economic protection, or to a theme that refers to physical and identity insecurity.
For the CEO of Societing, the question is rather to know which of these two themes will be dominant at the time of the vote, in April 2022.
Read alsoSecurity, a decisive concern for the French in their choice of vote
The political scientist recalls that "
the news is imposed by successive polemics
", which can sometimes be the result of a public figure, as when the essayist Éric Zemmour suggested to oblige the parents to give French first names to their children, reacting to the head of state.
But most of the time, “
the controversy is often imposed by the flood of daily news: price hikes, terrorist attacks, etc.
», Recalls Chloé Morin.
52% of French people are not yet interested in the presidential election
An OpinionWay survey for
Les Échos
- CNEWS - Radio Classique, published in September 2021, recalls that in 2017, the topic of employment was the most popular (47%), ahead of social protection and purchasing power.
But according to this same poll, the French are currently 52% not yet interested in the presidential election.
Read alsoIs immigration account for half of France's demographic growth?
A growing interest in the environment
An Ifop-Fiducial survey for TF1 and LCI published on October 20, 2021 gives another story. The three themes deemed "
decisive
" in the upcoming election are health (76%), the fight against insecurity (74%) and the fight against terrorism (74%). Purchasing power comes only in fourth position (65%), and the environment in 8th (53%), but up sharply compared to 2017 (+ 16%).
The environment also appears in second position (30%), behind purchasing power (41%) and ahead of immigration (29%) as the main concern of the French, according to an Ipsos study for
Le Monde
, carried out on a sample of more than 16,000 people.
Chloé Morin believes, however, that at this stage, there is little chance that the presidential debate will be played around ecology.
Read alsoIs the single-family house really "ecological, economic and social nonsense"?
Moreover, if the theme of purchasing power can prevail in the countryside, some still refuse to venture there.
This is particularly the case of Eric Zemmour.
"
He knows that the economy is not his playground. It is not where he is considered the most credible,
" said Chloé Morin.
Migration and security issues, dear to the non-candidate, are nevertheless not absent from the debate.
For the political scientist, "
the climate is so volatile that an attack would suffice to impose this theme again
".
Immigration and purchasing power at the heart of candidates' proposals
On these themes, concrete ideas are already on the table.
On immigration, Valérie Pécresse, for example, presented a constitutional bill, and Michel Barnier advocates a moratorium on immigration.
The non-candidate Eric Zemmour even proposes to return foreigners detained in France to their country.
Read alsoImmigration, security, terrorism: Valérie Pécresse and Gérald Darmanin cross swords in a courteous manner
On the issue of purchasing power, Anne Hidalgo launched her campaign with the wish to double the salaries of teachers.
The candidate of the ecologists, Yannick Jadot, pleads for an additional energy check, intended for the most precarious.
The candidate of RN Marine Le Pen proposes to lower the VAT on gasoline, gas and electricity.
Valérie Pécresse advocates an increase in the minimum wage, and Xavier Bertrand a "
work bonus
", for those who earn less than 1,500 euros net per month.
