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The generals in Sudan never intended to give up their power.

A coup was their last resort

Just as the military was about to hand over power to the civilian faction in the transitional government, a series of security crises began to emerge that ostensibly justified the coup.

One of the few successes of the "Arab Spring" was erased, and normalization with Israel entered uncertainty

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• Sudan

• Military coup

Guy Elster

Tuesday, 26 October 2021, 09:36

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In the video: On the way to a military coup in Sudan (Walla system!)

The military coup in Sudan has been written on the wall since the day the transitional government was born more than two years ago.

The hybrid rule of generals and civilians, which from the outset left more power in the military, was born as a problematic compromise between protesters and security forces in the months following the 2019 revolution that overthrew dictator Omar al-Bashir.

The military made the debut to head the Sovereignty Council in the first half of the four-year transition period, asking citizens to trust it to maintain the rotation in time.

The suspicion, justified, of the civilian government led by Prime Minister Abdullah Hamduk has intensified in recent months towards the time when the parties were supposed to exchange seats.

But the generals never intended to give up their power, and a coup was their last resort from the loss of power.

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(Photo: AP)

In recent weeks they have begun preparing the ground for the coup.

According to the recipe, they created imaginary security crises or inflated existing ones - a dubious announcement of thwarting a coup attempt by members of the previous regime - sudden exposure of terrorist cells and the organization of rallies in support of the coup and against the civilian government.

And so, those who warmed the spirits declared themselves as the only ones who could tame them.

The prime minister and senior members of the civilian faction refused to bow their heads in front of military leaders - the head of the Sovereignty Council 'Abd al-Fatah al-Burhan and his deputy Ahmad Deklo - and were arrested.

But the first stage in coups is also usually the easiest.

Immediately afterwards, the loyalty of ordinary soldiers begins to stand the test as they are forced to fire at demonstrators, desperate civilians like them in most cases protesting against the military junta.

In addition, critical economic aid to Sudan, which has just come out of decades of international isolation, has already taken a hit when the United States rushed to announce a $ 700 million grant freeze.

(Photo: AP)

The military leadership claims it is still committed to the international agreements it has signed in Sudan, promising to hold democratic elections in July 2023. Few believed it before the coup yesterday, and even less so today. Sudan is returning to an era of instability and violence - at least seven protesters have already been killed in clashes with security forces - and it is unclear how the overthrow of the transitional government will affect normalization with Israel.

Although Burhan and Deklo have been initiators of the move and have met with senior Israeli officials in recent years, the Biden administration will not legitimize their military regime through a solemn ceremony on White House lawns. The Sudanese army has taken a gamble when it unilaterally dismantled the power-sharing agreement with civilian organizations, and has no way back. If he withdraws now, no one in the opposition will agree to return to the old order and demand the dismantling and reassembly of the monstrous security establishment.

The military coup in Sudan also mimics one of the few successes of democratic protests in the Arab world in the previous decade, and along with the presidential coup in Tunisia, the "Arab Spring" seems to have passed until further notice.

It took place despite the feverish mediation efforts of the United States, and only the day before had the special American envoy destined for the area with Burhan who had promised to keep his promise.

Its gross violation is further evidence of the continuing weakening of American influence in the world and its ability to curb global anti-democratic regression.

This has a direct bearing on the weakening of democracy within the United States, which itself witnessed a coup attempt earlier this year.

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